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Feb 15th-17th. Just believe it or leave it.


peteradiator

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Well, more often than not, verification is boring....and more often than not, the euro displays what will verify.

 

mmm, I hate this kind of explanation frankly; it's as true as it is false..

 

Put it this way:  what if all the guidance were ALB and west, and the Euro was over CCC with heavy snow as far E as ORH - 

 

never happens.

 

i bet if one diligently and tediously went through the numbers they'd find that the vast majority of the times, the Euro just more than just boringly verifies -

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Yup, one Sunday last winter proved that, I I forget which month maybe January? All the talk was no freezing rain because of ambient temp and I remember waking up to see I95 in Greenwich was shut down and wrecks everywhere, the rain was no match for ground temp, atleast for a few hours.

Jan 17th I believe, almost lost my wife in a 37 car pileup just after the GWB

Anyways would love the GFS follow up to happen

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mmm, I hate this kind of explanation frankly; it's as true as it is false..

 

Put it this way:  what if all the guidance were ALB and west, and the Euro was over CCC with heavy snow as far E as ORH - 

 

never happens.

 

i bet if one diligently and tediously went through the numbers they'd find that the vast majority of the times, the Euro just more than just boringly verifies -

Well, no....because the majority of the time the solution doesn't end up a huge snow event.....aside from three weeks of 2015.

This isn't the Sierra Nevada  LOL

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So dumb.  I wish seasons could act like seasons.  Does it snow in July??? NO.  So why is it snowing in February? 

 

"isn't" it snowing ... i think you meant why isn't it snowing in February... 

 

and the answer is ... too built up and/or just outright misconceptions about what winter means in New England.  Probably shared by the majority user of the forum at that... 

 

We've had awesome winters and awesome storms over hundreds of years, and that is true.  But, we are still far enough S in latitude relative to global climate to suffer a love/hate relationship with our winters. Can't love 'em all  ;)

 

In that same logic, we are far enough S that warmth in the summer means much more rarely ever will it snow in July - I think it has once in 300 years of records and/or historical grandpappie annuls.  I'm not sure what the latitude cut-off where and opined question like 'why isn't it snowing in February' should more justly apply...but I imagine it starts somewhere in the band around New Fundland to midriff British Columbia.  

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Well, no....because the majority of the time the solution doesn't end up a huge snow event.....aside from three weeks of 2015.

This isn't the Sierra Nevada  LOL

 

well no - who said 'huge' 

 

i'm talking any for cryin' out loud.  christ...

 

but, in the end, it was a sardonic jest and not worthy much more ;) 

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"isn't" it snowing ... i think you meant why isn't it snowing in February... 

 

and the answer is ... too built up and/or just outright misconceptions about what winter means in New England.  Probably shared by the majority user of the forum at that... 

 

We've had awesome winters and awesome storms over hundreds of years, and that is true.  But, we are still far enough S in latitude relative to global climate to suffer a love/hate relationship with our winters. Can't love 'em all  ;)

 

In that same logic, we are far enough S that warmth in the summer means much more rarely ever will it snow in July - I think it has once in 300 years of records and/or historical grandpappie annuls.  I'm not sure what the latitude cut-off where and opined question like 'why isn't it snowing in February' should more justly apply...but I imagine it starts somewhere in the band around New Fundland to midriff British Columbia.  

This is awesome.

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me yuk ... the GFS is on too much speed in the flow to figure the f out ...period.  

 

that goes for everything in the field out thru d10 in that matter.   it's not resolving wave mechanics in an above normal geostrophically balance fluid medium that's giving friggin' neptune a run for it's money -

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this winter is just like a mercilessly ambivalent 20something year old super hot deviant c*** that give's the gullible good guy irreproachable false reason's to try again... 

 

but she's evil dude.  she sucks from your soul like it's her nutrition, with no love in giving back; she's a parasite winter.  

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Is there bad data or something going into the 18Z GFS?  Huge, huge change.  I was looking for some slight adjustments with this deep storm but the storm itself is basically gone.  Really strange????

 

 

There have been some ensemble members that look like that solution so it isn't a shock to see it appear on the OP run.

 

That said, the trend today on all guidance save the European twins (and the JMA apparently...which I didn't see) has been to be less amplified. But those Euro twins are a powerful combo to bet against. We'll obviously know more at 00z.

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