powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Congrats to the NAM for finally figuring out that this wasn't going to be a huge CNE snow event, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The nAM makes my point. That would hold cold longer, especially nrn CT and more likely, interior MA. Nice little thump prior.I would totally enjoy that scenario, sumtin out of nuttin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 How much rain is the NAMmie pumping out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The nAM makes my point. That would hold cold longer, especially nrn CT and more likely, interior MA. Nice little thump prior. Would it hold into Tuesday morning or you just mean Monday night for a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RGEM holds cold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Would it hold into Tuesday morning or you just mean Monday night for a few hours? Maybe easrly Tues morning for you? Of course that is assuming NAM is right. Maybe it only helps you for an hour or two. I'd rather be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I would totally enjoy that scenario, sumtin out of nuttin. I don't think "enjoy" is the right descriptive. More like accept what cant be bargained with. February rain, especially right after bone chilling cold is a huge kick in the nads, and nothing enjoyable about it regardless of a bit of consolation snow ahead of the wetness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Maybe easrly Tues morning for you? Of course that is assuming NAM is right. Maybe it only helps you for an hour or two. I'd rather be north. RGEM says no to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't think "enjoy" is the right descriptive. More like accept what cant be bargained with. February rain, especially right after bone chilling cold is a huge kick in the nads, and nothing enjoyable about it regardless of a bit of consolation snow ahead of the wetness.I guess I take things as they occur, accept that it will rain but enjoy the present. Guess that's from my roots in SWRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Congrats to the NAM for finally figuring out that this wasn't going to be a huge CNE snow event, lol. nam_3hr_snow_acc_neng_29.png Maybe a small net gain of slop up there but the upslope machine cranks Weds evening through the day Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RGEM holds cold too I guess the snow-opiate crowd are holding out for any taste of smack at all, ha .. ...but, there's nothing stopping the more important Meteorology of this thing. And, that is the incredible 48 hour turn around from record cold to almost record warmth, in the heart of a proper winter-climo month. That's aspect altogether really should not escape anyone's attention - hope it's not! That said, I've noticed some very significant changes between the 00/06z runs of the NAM, versus this most recent 12z version; and the only thing I can see that could be driving the changes is data sampling over land, over the west coast and near-by Rockies. The previous runs were sampling the first of the two waves of this binary trough progression while over the open waters of the far E Pacific. ...That feature had been persistently modeled to be at, or weaker, than the second wave as the totality reached greatest amplitude around 80 or so W. Firstly, the two were interfering destructively with one-another all along; the question is how. Prior runs...it appeared the presence of the second wave was "damping" the first to some degree ... effectively limiting it's cyclonic coherence. Now ... the lead (first) wave is suddenly hugely dominant. The second now is an afterthought in this overall synoptic evolution (NAM). It is the NAM and blah blah [enter whatever justly chastising...], but it does exemplify the importance for more physically sampled sounding data in the runs - The lead now nukes as it turns the corner, with supreme DPVA and almost a meso-beta scaled bomb cyclone imploding up the Hudson river toward SE Ontario. ~12 mb in 12 hours! The west side of the low has eruption of cold QPF along a narrow band where it chokes probably to be out of doors.. And it is narrow. Buffalo is almost too far west in this depiction, where as Utica is raining. But that's enough about details re the NAM beyond 36 hours... I'm interested in seeing if the remainder of the 12z runs show similar abrupt variations with trough features like this run did - apparently, upon relaying off the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 i think an inch or two tomorrow/tomorrow night is pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm not expecting "good" I am just hoping for "less bad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The donut hole near ALB is quite appropriate, haha. Congrats to the NAM for finally figuring out that this wasn't going to be a huge CNE snow event, lol. nam_3hr_snow_acc_neng_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ART goes from LES to -37F to 1-2ft of synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ART goes from LES to -37F to 1-2ft of synoptic.All time Feb record for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Will Euro follow UKMET east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So how's the wind threat looking? Torch + gusts have been a recipe for uprooting trees imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What's the flood threat with this one? I'm guessing the ground is pretty well frozen, so run off will be a problem. Add the snow pack and I think we see some street/urban flooding if not some basement flooding. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Will Euro follow UKMET east Matches the GFS but only as far I can tell on ttb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro still runs the Apps which won't happen. Prob runs over NYC It juiced up snows tomorrow afternoon /night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro has less than an inch Euro still runs the Apps which won't happen. Prob runs over NYC It juiced up snows tomorrow afternoon /night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 EURO/GFS/GGEM all track through upstate NY. Locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 EURO/GFS/GGEM all track through upstate NY. Locked and loaded. NNE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Will Euro follow UKMET eastnope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NNE winter. Haha I remember DIT saying that after the sleet event of December 28-29. Rrrrrrright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 the whole evolution of things prior to this disturbance moving through really underscores the importance to winter-characteristic storms, of having a lower tropospheric cold source. This current bitter blast means nothing to this thing... The high pressure contributing bodily moves off to the east with certain rapidity over the next 24 hours, and around the deep layer flow veers. There is zippo inhibition to displace the cold; in fact, there is very little actual WAA; the warmer thickness contours appear to move N along the EC...clear past Maine, at the same rate as the wind velocity its self - are darn near it! It's pretty remarkable really.. Seeing the 525dm thickness near dawn tomorrow go to nearly 555dm by midnight with howling S winds ... usually that sort of variation is going the other way behind sharp cold fronts. This whole set up reminds of late January 1994. Light dawns over the Merrimack Valley and the temperatures were in the single digits. Snow grains and occasional larger aggregates were flitting down a gossamer dusting, and the air had that bluish tint of deep winter with the early light. By noon it the temp had steadily risen to the mid 20s, and sleet and freezing rain took over. It came down steady and light, and just about the time the rime on exposed surface started to glow, the temperature flipped from 31 to 33 F (around 3 pm). It lingered there for a little while.. But some time shortly after darkness set in, I noticed that the shrubbery outside the window of the cafeteria was suddenly jolting back and forth ... wind had kicked up. Sure enough, at some point over a half hour's worth of time, the temperature soared into the mid 50s and the sky was streeted with clouds moving N at ludicrous speeds, while steam rolled off of snow banks amid the warm breezes. That was one of, if not the, most striking short term turn arounds, going from cold to warm side I had ever witnessed. This could do something similar I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah Tip this event reminds me a lot of that January 1994 reversal of airmasses. I remember the light snow near 0F that predawn morning. And then the mildish rain by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 the whole evolution of things prior to this disturbance moving through really underscores the importance to winter-characteristic storms, of having a lower tropospheric cold source. This current bitter blast means nothing to this thing... The high pressure contributing bodily moves off to the east with certain rapidity over the next 24 hours, and around the deep layer flow veers. There is zippo inhibition to displace the cold; in fact, there is very little actual WAA; the warmer thickness contours appear to move N along the EC...clear past Maine, at the same rate as the wind velocity its self - are darn near it! It's pretty remarkable really.. Seeing the 525dm thickness near dawn tomorrow go to nearly 555dm by midnight with howling S winds ... usually that sort of variation is going the other way behind sharp cold fronts. This whole set up reminds of late January 1994. Light dawns over the Merrimack Valley and the temperatures were in the single digits. Snow grains and occasional larger aggregates were flitting down a gossamer dusting, and the air had that bluish tint of deep winter with the early light. By noon it the temp had steadily risen to the mid 20s, and sleet and freezing rain took over. It came down steady and light, and just about the time the rime on exposed surface started to glow, the temperature flipped from 31 to 33 F (around 3 pm). It lingered there for a little while.. But some time shortly after darkness set in, I noticed that the shrubbery outside the window of the cafeteria was suddenly jolting back and forth ... wind had kicked up. Sure enough, at some point over a half hour's worth of time, the temperature soared into the mid 50s and the sky was streeted with clouds moving N at ludicrous speeds, while steam rolled off of snow banks amid the warm breezes. That was one of, if not the, most striking short term turn arounds, going from cold to warm side I had ever witnessed. This could do something similar I think... My words exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah Tip this event reminds me a lot of that January 1994 reversal of airmasses. I remember the light snow near 0F that predawn morning. And then the mildish rain by evening. Obliterated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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