JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It will go east. I expect 00z runs over Tolland.We may end up seeing slightly less meridonial solution, where it goes over the HRV but PF is still saved on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nothing ever ticked west for me this winter ...until Tuesday maybe. LOL You mean west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well technically whatever happens...the GFS has been had...because it already caved. It's like the concept of a meteorologist holding out on a forecast for 12" of snow and then caving and changing it to 3"....then if 12" happens, he goes "just kidding!!! I nailed it!!"wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think the thing to watch on the next few model suites is to see the models start to hang on to the colder air as we get closer in as that will make a difference on some front end snow for a few up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 wut?You mean "what?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 And/or if we get a lot of ice. Assuming I stay west of the low track by a bit anyway. I think the thing to watch on the next few model suites is to see the models start to hang on to the colder air as we get closer in as that will make a difference on some front end snow for a few up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 And/or if we get a lot of ice. Assuming I stay west of the low track by a bit anyway. Yes, Models try to scour out the LL cold faster then what ends up being the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Newsflash JC the GFS has sucked for 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 wut?Although if it goes back to a weaker solution, I guess that would be neither model schooling the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Newsflash JC the GFS has sucked for 20 yearsThanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think the thing to watch on the next few model suites is to see the models start to hang on to the colder air as we get closer in as that will make a difference on some front end snow for a few up herewhy I said watch the mesos, especially the RGEM for low levels. An east slope guy like Hippy knows exactly what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 why I said watch the mesos, especially the RGEM for low levels. An east slope guy like Hippy knows exactly what I mean GYX is pretty bullish on the front end up here, 3-5" my casa, 0z NAM has it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 why I said watch the mesos, especially the RGEM for low levels. An east slope guy like Hippy knows exactly what I mean You mean stuck at 30F while every location 5mi or more S, W or E of me is roaring into the upper 40's? Yup, seen that a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GYX is pretty bullish on the front end up here, 3-5" my casa, 0z NAM has it as wellThen how much liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Then how much liquid? On the Nam, Over 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 On the Nam, Over 1"+Brutal. Going to have to go to Caribou again next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GYX believing it, not leaving it for my P+C Monday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 22. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There's always model selective memory. GFS Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You know we are entering the grasping at straws phase if we are analyzing the NAM. LOL ...That blind squirrel probably found it's only nut of the year with the Mid Atlantic blizzard. On the Nam, Over 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You know we are entering the grasping at straws phase if we are analyzing the NAM. LOL ...That blind squirrel probably found it's only nut of the year with the Mid Atlantic blizzard. lol, The others models have the front end snow as well, They also have the +RN to go with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 No. East based +NAO. Plus models are underestimating the strength of the shortwave/ridging/SSTs/HP/50-50/cold/arctic oscillation. The NAO is currently Negative on both the Euro and the GFS so I dont know what anyone is expecting to change the next couple days as both are now trending positive or continue to stay slightly Negative unless I misinterpreted the post........ GFS NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAO is currently Negative on both the Euro and the GFS so I dont know what anyone is expecting to change the next couple days as both are now trending positive or continue to stay slightly Negative unless I misinterpreted the post........ It's a negative east based +NAO. I can keep going all night. I also do birthday parties. I see no reason why we shouldn't just ignore the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I shouldn't be surprised but it is still shocking that some will go from -20F tomorrow morning to rain on Tuesday, less than 48 hours. I'm sure there have probably been set ups that have rained within 12 hours of a zero reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There's always model selective memory. GFS Thurs.I posted the last 5 runs. Who cares what it said out in lala range when we are relying on ensembles? 96-36 hours is when we need our operational globals to nail it You mean "what?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Oz Gfs is so far west and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is west runs the low up through CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A gross run for the north that were still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even with a cutter there are many possible outcomes in terms of temps and rain amounts but, the way this winter has gone, I'm sure it will find a way to drive max QPF right up into ski country. If we can't have a good front end thump I am pulling for this to go over W NY and push a dry slot into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 At this point, Let it get as far west as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even with a cutter there are many possible outcomes in terms of temps and rain amounts but, the way this winter has gone, I'm sure it will find a way to drive max QPF right up into ski country. If we can't have a good front end thump I am pulling for this to go over W NY and push a dry slot into NNE. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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