dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Its a major dump all right, Just the wrong kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess you were too young to recall the atrocious winter of 88-89 in ALB. with 18" total. I hoped not to go through that again. How much do you have so far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At this point who cares about MBY. Looks like I can drive an hour northwest and into some serious accumulation around Canada Lake, 90 minutes to Piseco... I'll just go there and finally do some snow shoeing. That run is fascinating from the razor thin line of big snow vs. more "meh". This would be enough to send Eyewall off the Champlain Bridge between NY and VT... if BTV is heavy rain and PBG on the NY shore of the Lake is isothermal snow bomb. Such a tight gradient...here's 925mb temps at the peak of the warmth...that NE flow upsloping into the northeast Adirondack foothills causing dynamic cooling isothermal snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We are gonna start out pretty cold with really low DP's. Wonder if it is too torched at low levels providing we stay west of the surface low track, Maybe more ice than the GFS thinks. Guess we can't do much about higher up. In that late December event it was also really torched aloft. I got 3" of sleet. To me that has El Nino written all over it. Yeah we finally get a low to track far enough west where we're in the game and of course there's nothing to keep the cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 10.4" How much do you have so far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 10.4" You know there haven't been too many marginal events when your within 2.0" of ALBs seasonal total. Anyways, 18z GEFS are definitely more amped than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS thermal bias and that's a total crush job NVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess you were too young to recall the atrocious winter of 88-89 in ALB. with 18" total. I hoped not to go through that again. Oh I could see that... but even with 18" total I would assume one of those dropped 2" or more in a single event. Even 2.5" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm looking past tues and going right to next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How can a model get schooled 60 hrs before a storm occurs? Some at risk for 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How can a model get schooled 60 hrs before a storm occurs? Some at risk for 2 feet.It's been all over the map with this one. More than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's been all over the map with this one. More than usual.If I lived in NVT I wouldn't be sleeping on this one. First "surprised" post should be automatically weenied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I agree, Vt guys should not poo poo this one, Someone notify Eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If I lived in NVT I wouldn't be sleeping on this one. First "surprised" post should be automatically weeniedAbsolutely. But the GFS has had terrible continuity and if the Euro ticks east then it would be the 80/20 Euro/GFS blend that we expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I agree, Vt guys should not poo poo this one, Someone notify EyewallYET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If I lived in NVT I wouldn't be sleeping on this one. First "surprised" post should be automatically weeniedQuite frankly, I won't be surprised either way. It seems like the Euro has been locked on it going west of us and the GFS has been less stable. I guess I lean towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also very little in the way of LES. Not that we get tons, but I usually figure that's good for maybe 18" of my seasonal total in 1-3 inch doses. Just a lousy desert. LOL You know there haven't been too many marginal events when your within 2.0" of ALBs seasonal total. Anyways, 18z GEFS are definitely more amped than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's just amazing that the Euro has been hitting a similar solution for days and days. Can we get it to do the same for a Miller A just inside the BM, with a decent H placement, sometime in the next 4 weeks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 How can a model get schooled 60 hrs before a storm occurs? Some at risk for 2 feet. I'll take the Euro, Euro EPS, UKMET, and westward trend of the GFS and GEFS any day for a forecast bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If I lived in NVT I wouldn't be sleeping on this one. First "surprised" post should be automatically weenied Haha no one is "sleeping" on it... it is being monitored. Who gets weenied if it rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'll take the Euro, Euro EPS, UKMET, and westward trend of the GFS and GEFS any day for a forecast bet.Everything has ticked east in the last 48 hours this year. I expect the models to start trending east at 12z tomorrow.Also, +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 How can a model get schooled 60 hrs before a storm occurs? Some at risk for 2 feet. Well technically whatever happens...the GFS has been had...because it already caved. It's like the concept of a meteorologist holding out on a forecast for 12" of snow and then caving and changing it to 3"....then if 12" happens, he goes "just kidding!!! I nailed it!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Everything has ticked east in the last 48 hours this year. I expect the models to start trending east at 12z tomorrow. Also, +NAO. You mean west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You mean west?No. East based +NAO. Plus models are underestimating the strength of the shortwave/ridging/SSTs/HP/50-50/cold/arctic oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 No. East based +NAO. Plus models are underestimating the strength of the shortwave/ridging/SSTs/HP/50-50/cold/arctic oscillation. I guess the monday event may have ticked east last minute, but what other events? Everything came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I guess the monday event may have ticked east last minute, but what other events? Everything came west.Not at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not at h5 Ray...is that you? This thing is heading up near the HV or western CT more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ray...is that you? This thing is heading up near the HV or western CT more than likely. I can't believe you actually responded seriously. I expected a lol from PF and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well technically whatever happens...the GFS has been had...because it already caved. It's like the concept of a meteorologist holding out on a forecast for 12" of snow and then caving and changing it to 3"....then if 12" happens, he goes "just kidding!!! I nailed it!!" I thought the same thing. If it was schooling the Euro, it just fell on its face 10 feet from the finish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I can't believe you actually responded seriously. I expected a lol from PF and that was it. It will go east. I expect 00z runs over Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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