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Feb 15th-17th. Just believe it or leave it.


peteradiator

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Ensembles including SREF as well as the globals are roughly split in two camps.  1) Weaker wave that slides NE through SNE and wound up, strong low that tracks NNE through CNY into NNE.  There are some in-between solutions, but overall there are two camps with a lot of spread.  I don't think we'll really have a good feel with this until sometime tomorrow.  It has obvious implications for CNE and NNE for Mon. night/Tue. but also for any potential followup wave.

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Ensembles including SREF as well as the globals are roughly split in two camps.  1) Weaker wave that slides NE through SNE and wound up, strong low that tracks NNE through CNY into NNE.  There are some in-between solutions, but overall there are two camps with a lot of spread.  I don't think we'll really have a good feel with this until sometime tomorrow.  It has obvious implications for CNE and NNE for Mon. night/Tue. but also for any potential followup wave.

 

No mattter how you slice it, you're in a much better position than any SNE folks.

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LOL  I'll take the 18Z NAM.  It gives me like 15" of snow

 

Haha this event is pretty funny... some models have rain here and snow to the west, others have us on the northern fringe of the snow.  Quite the spread.

 

My bet though is on all the globals with a track through eastern NY, maybe into VT or something.

 

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Congrats Euro

 

GFS got schooled...pwned.

 

Gives us 3-6" of snow followed by about 2" of rain and then another 2-5" backside.

 

Total of 3.0" QPF at MVL :lol:.

 

 

Following the thermal profiles, the snow map isn't too bad but its combining both front end and back end snows....and there's 2" of rain in-between at MVL.

 

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It's weird to have a low track north northeast from Western CT and have temps so torched in the ALB area to west of the track and upper levels torched all the way into central NY with ice. Normally you get a low in that position and I would think he might be pounding heavy wet snow out here near Schoharie. It still looked do-able to me until I saw the thermal profile.

One full year without a 2" snowstorm.  Wow.

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That run is fascinating from the razor thin line of big snow vs. more "meh".

 

This would be enough to send Eyewall off the Champlain Bridge between NY and VT... if BTV is heavy rain and PBG on the NY shore of the Lake is isothermal snow bomb.

 

Such a tight gradient...here's 925mb temps at the peak of the warmth...that NE flow upsloping into the northeast Adirondack foothills causing dynamic cooling isothermal snow bomb.

 

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It didn't go as far west as the Euro, Your getting a major dump of snow there on the GFS. Of course it go further west on subsequent runs.

 

No major dump here on the GFS...front end snow and back end snow sandwiched between 2" of rain.

 

It is very close though...major dump on the NY side of the Champlain Valley and westward.

 

Edit:  Actually this year, 3-6" before heavy rain would be a major dump.

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It's weird to have a low track north northeast from Western CT and have temps so torched in the ALB area to west of the track and upper levels torched all the way into central NY with ice. Normally you get a low in that position and I would think he might be pounding heavy wet snow out here near Schoharie. It still looked do-able to me until I saw the thermal profile.

Yeah we finally get a low to track far enough west where we're in the game and of course there's nothing to keep the cold air in place.

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