dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 From what I see I'd move that axis west. That map i see is not updated on meteocenter yet, Just saw the stamp its friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at weatherbell probably could move that 50 miles west That map i see is not updated on meteocenter yet, Just saw the stamp its friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice to see the GFS east of here now at 12z. If that occurs I like my crow medium well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 PF can figure out a snow map, he knows I don't neither does anyone other algorithm, power issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 PF can figure out a snow map, he knows I don't neither does anyone other algorithm, power issues?We can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Other the getting lucky for a couple hours up here, Its been pretty meh with the misses Haha we haven't even gotten lucky for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We can hopenot for you or me, totally blue bomb stuff Catskills VT NNH NWME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haha we haven't even gotten lucky for a couple hours.thats BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's pretty obvious the GFS and GEM have headed toward the Euro and not vice versa. I hope this reaches some compromise around maybe a Berkshires to MWN track. But of course I wouldn't be shocked in the Euro was still through ALB or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 not for you or me, totally blue bomb stuff Catskills VT NNH NWMEDont be shocked at another move or two east to help icing and at least some pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 thats BS Glad to see you've experienced the winter in NNE! The grass blades showing up through the 1" of snow beg to differ. Haha, you've been obsessed with anything I say these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's pretty obvious the GFS and GEM have headed toward the Euro and not vice versa. I hope this reaches some compromise around maybe a Berkshires to MWN track. But of course I wouldn't be shocked in the Euro was still through ALB or west.think the Arc closer to you maybe right, retreating high position and jet flow plus kicker not phasing in. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Glad to see you've experienced the winter in NNE! The grass blades showing up through the 1" of snow beg to differ. Haha, you've been obsessed with anything I say these days. what the hell does grass have to do with your post. So you haven't had two hours of snow all year, cool. How's it feel to see someone respond to every post you make? I know. I am rooting for your Debbie butt to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 what the hell does grass have to do with your post. So you haven't had two hours of snow all year, cool. How's it feel to see someone respond to every post you make? I know. I am rooting for your Debbie butt to get smoked. Haha, "wut"? I just saw my name in like half your posts over the past couple days. If you read that as to mean literally haven't had two hours of snow all season, then I guess we should be more specific in the future. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How exciting to see me jackpot. Congrats Edugss and PF I'm a bit east of ALB. That's a lot of freezing rain for me on the GFS. Logan does much better. We both rain on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haha, "wut"? I just saw my name in like half your posts over the past couple days. If you read that as to mean literally haven't had two hours of snow all season, then I guess we should be more specific in the future. Carry on... you are a reference point, sorry will use a geographical point from now on. NVT looks to be a good position for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sne may be about done after Monday 2-4 Some of SNE won't be done because it never started. 6.5/-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So...does this define a "dead ratter" winter ... ? I'd say that answer to that question is a resounding yes (so far) up in NNE ...save perhaps NE Maine; but I'm wonder if it should be so in SNE, or rather just a rabid rat down this way... In any case, ...mentioned this the other day, this up-coming scenario is among the, or is the, greatest synoptic bend-over bang scenario ever! -5 MOS' abounds the area for Sunday morning, souring to low 50s for Tuesday morning when/where rain is sheeting with plausible thunder over SE zones. If nothing else ... the merit in that is the degree in physical difficulty in actually getting that to happen on Earth. I'm sure in some far away alien world, that's common place; but in parlance of Terran physics, that's tough to do outside of meso and/or mountain climates. This is a radical change while foisting planetary wave through the area - that really is remarkable to an almost stunner degree. THAT is what it takes to not snow this year - wow. That's my most constructive commiseration tactic But you know, it is true. That's the irony of that. It's so absurd to suggest all that happens, it would almost have to be irritable sarcasm - truth is sometimes stranger than fiction (cliche`). Perhaps something corrects as we pass into nearer terms. Maybe that polar +PP lags 'that' much more and imposes some ageostrophic tendency not currently modeled. Stranger things have happened... but, you're talking icing if so for anyone E of ALB. Maybe the wave kinematics roll in off the Pacific stranger when they hit the denser sounding domain over land, and that somehow modulates thing favorably - or not. One thing I am noticing though ... just like every single wave translation across N/A so far this season, save one (the MA snow monster), wave destructive interference has plagued severely. It's been absolutely KILLING the winter's storm budget - and this whole trough translation is no different, period! It's translating along carrying the same inharmonic wave contention as every single other one this year and it's a real science in my mind as to why. Regardless of the poorly timed cold air dislodging east, the wave structural issues are just adding to the uncertainty. My hunch is that it has to do with the multi-decadal tendency for AA north Pacific flow correlation (increasing blocking on 2 to 3 decade cycle), attempting to take place over top of a very warm ENSO...such that the hemisphere on whole may be running on too much gradient. That speeds up the wind velocities, everywhere, which is intrinsically an enhancement of shear in the means. But I don't know for certain - just that shearing and destruction has been dominating the flow characteristics since November, unrelenting, regardless of cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet. I'm a bit east of ALB. That's a lot of freezing rain for me on the GFS. Logan does much better. We both rain on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet. Would be nice to have something on the front end. I don't think I've seen 4" or more of snow falling in one lump sum yet this season, so maybe we could grab a few inches before a mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is even more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro says Fuk you New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow look at that east tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haha even further west and a few mbs stronger. When the EURO is this stable and steady as she goes....hard to bet against it. Western New York is looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet. I'm almost as far east of ALB and you are west. The CMC solution would be much better for you than for me. But the axis of heavy snow is still west of you on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro is even more amped. Yeah it doesn't give a flying flip what the other models have....still tracks it through C NY. This is either goingto be a really good Euro coup or a failure. UKMET too...it's been right with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How about the western daks on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You could tell early on it was going to be amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Other than virtually irrelevant differences in details ... the 72 hour NAM is agrees with the 72 hour Euro per this this 12z butt plugging. fascinating weather changes this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So...does this define a "dead ratter" winter ... ? I'd say that answer to that question is a resounding yes (so far) up in NNE ...save perhaps NE Maine; but I'm wonder if it should be so in SNE, or rather just a rabid rat down this way... In any case, ...mentioned this the other day, this up-coming scenario is among the, or is the, greatest synoptic bend-over bang scenario ever! -5 MOS' abounds the area for Sunday morning, souring to low 50s for Tuesday morning when/where rain is sheeting with plausible thunder over SE zones. If nothing else ... the merit in that is the degree in physical difficulty in actually getting that to happen on Earth. I'm sure in some far away alien world, that's common place; but in parlance of Terran physics, that's tough to do outside of meso and/or mountain climates. This is a radical change while foisting planetary wave through the area - that really is remarkable to an almost stunner degree. THAT is what it takes to not snow this year - wow. That's my most constructive commiseration tactic But you know, it is true. That's the irony of that. It's so absurd to suggest all that happens, it would almost have to be irritable sarcasm - truth is sometimes stranger than fiction (cliche`). Perhaps something corrects as we pass into nearer terms. Maybe that polar +PP lags 'that' much more and imposes some ageostrophic tendency not currently modeled. Stranger things have happened... but, you're talking icing if so for anyone E of ALB. Maybe the wave kinematics roll in off the Pacific stranger when they hit the denser sounding domain over land, and that somehow modulates thing favorably - or not. One thing I am noticing though ... just like every single wave translation across N/A so far this season, save one (the MA snow monster), wave destructive interference has plagued severely. It's been absolutely KILLING the winter's storm budget - and this whole trough translation is no different, period! It's translating along carrying the same inharmonic wave contention as every single other one this year and it's a real science in my mind as to why. Regardless of the poorly timed cold air dislodging east, the wave structural issues are just adding to the uncertainty. My hunch is that it has to do with the multi-decadal tendency for AA north Pacific flow correlation (increasing blocking on 2 to 3 decade cycle), attempting to take place over top of a very warm ENSO...such that the hemisphere on whole may be running on too much gradient. That speeds up the wind velocities, everywhere, which is intrinsically an enhancement of shear in the means. But I don't know for certain - just that shearing and destruction has been dominating the flow characteristics since November, unrelenting, regardless of cause. For the southwest corner of New England drfinately not a ratter. Sitting within 5 inches of the seasonal average of 30. I agree with NNE and CNE being a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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