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Feb 15th-17th. Just believe it or leave it.


peteradiator

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It's pretty obvious the GFS and GEM have headed toward the Euro and not vice versa. I hope this reaches some compromise around maybe a Berkshires to MWN track. But of course I wouldn't be shocked in the Euro was still through ALB or west.

think the Arc closer to you maybe right, retreating high position and jet flow plus kicker not phasing in. JMHO
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Glad to see you've experienced the winter in NNE!

The grass blades showing up through the 1" of snow beg to differ.

Haha, you've been obsessed with anything I say these days.

what the hell does grass have to do with your post. So you haven't had two hours of snow all year, cool. How's it feel to see someone respond to every post you make? I know. I am rooting for your Debbie butt to get smoked.
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what the hell does grass have to do with your post. So you haven't had two hours of snow all year, cool. How's it feel to see someone respond to every post you make? I know. I am rooting for your Debbie butt to get smoked.

 

Haha, "wut"?  I just saw my name in like half your posts over the past couple days.

 

If you read that as to mean literally haven't had two hours of snow all season, then I guess we should be more specific in the future.

 

Carry on...

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Haha, "wut"? I just saw my name in like half your posts over the past couple days.

If you read that as to mean literally haven't had two hours of snow all season, then I guess we should be more specific in the future.

Carry on...

you are a reference point, sorry will use a geographical point from now on. NVT looks to be a good position for this.
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So...does this define a "dead ratter" winter ... ?   I'd say that answer to that question is a resounding yes (so far) up in NNE ...save perhaps NE Maine; but I'm wonder if it should be so in SNE, or rather just a rabid rat down this way... 

 

In any case, ...mentioned this the other day, this up-coming scenario is among the, or is the, greatest synoptic bend-over bang scenario ever!   -5 MOS' abounds the area for Sunday morning, souring to low 50s for Tuesday morning when/where rain is sheeting with plausible thunder over SE zones.  

 

If nothing else ... the merit in that is the degree in physical difficulty in actually getting that to happen on Earth. I'm sure in some far away alien world, that's common place; but in parlance of Terran physics, that's tough to do outside of meso and/or mountain climates.  This is a radical change while foisting planetary wave through the area - that really is remarkable to an almost stunner degree. 

 

THAT is what it takes to not snow this year - wow.  

 

That's my most constructive commiseration tactic :)    

 

But you know, it is true. That's the irony of that.  It's so absurd to suggest all that happens, it would almost have to be irritable sarcasm - truth is sometimes stranger than fiction (cliche`). 

 

Perhaps something corrects as we pass into nearer terms. Maybe that polar +PP lags 'that' much more and imposes some ageostrophic tendency not currently modeled.  Stranger things have happened...  but, you're talking icing if so for anyone E of ALB. Maybe the wave kinematics roll in off the Pacific stranger when they hit the denser sounding domain over land, and that somehow modulates thing favorably - or not.  

 

One thing I am noticing though ... just like every single wave translation across N/A so far this season, save one (the MA snow monster), wave destructive interference has plagued severely.  It's been absolutely KILLING the winter's storm budget - and this whole trough translation is no different, period!  It's translating along carrying the same inharmonic wave contention as every single other one this year and it's a real science in my mind as to why. Regardless of the poorly timed cold air dislodging east, the wave structural issues are just adding to the uncertainty. 

 

My hunch is that it has to do with the multi-decadal tendency for AA north Pacific flow correlation (increasing blocking on 2 to 3 decade cycle), attempting to take place over top of a very warm ENSO...such that the hemisphere on whole may be running on too much gradient. That speeds up the wind velocities, everywhere, which is intrinsically an enhancement of shear in the means.  But I don't know for certain - just that shearing and destruction has been dominating the flow characteristics since November, unrelenting, regardless of cause.  

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CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet.

I'm a bit east of ALB.  That's a lot of freezing rain for me on the GFS.  Logan does much better.  We both rain on the CMC.

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CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet.

Would be nice to have something on the front end. I don't think I've seen 4" or more of snow falling in one lump sum yet this season, so maybe we could grab a few inches before a mix to rain.

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CMC gives me 10" of snow before ice, but it's an academic point. CMC is usually somewhat torched, I'd take that track N. NJ to ME and run with it...but think it might correct a little more west yet.

I'm almost as far east of ALB and you are west.  The CMC solution would be much better for you than for me.  But the axis of heavy snow is still west of you on the CMC. 

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So...does this define a "dead ratter" winter ... ? I'd say that answer to that question is a resounding yes (so far) up in NNE ...save perhaps NE Maine; but I'm wonder if it should be so in SNE, or rather just a rabid rat down this way...

In any case, ...mentioned this the other day, this up-coming scenario is among the, or is the, greatest synoptic bend-over bang scenario ever! -5 MOS' abounds the area for Sunday morning, souring to low 50s for Tuesday morning when/where rain is sheeting with plausible thunder over SE zones.

If nothing else ... the merit in that is the degree in physical difficulty in actually getting that to happen on Earth. I'm sure in some far away alien world, that's common place; but in parlance of Terran physics, that's tough to do outside of meso and/or mountain climates. This is a radical change while foisting planetary wave through the area - that really is remarkable to an almost stunner degree.

THAT is what it takes to not snow this year - wow.

That's my most constructive commiseration tactic :)

But you know, it is true. That's the irony of that. It's so absurd to suggest all that happens, it would almost have to be irritable sarcasm - truth is sometimes stranger than fiction (cliche`).

Perhaps something corrects as we pass into nearer terms. Maybe that polar +PP lags 'that' much more and imposes some ageostrophic tendency not currently modeled. Stranger things have happened... but, you're talking icing if so for anyone E of ALB. Maybe the wave kinematics roll in off the Pacific stranger when they hit the denser sounding domain over land, and that somehow modulates thing favorably - or not.

One thing I am noticing though ... just like every single wave translation across N/A so far this season, save one (the MA snow monster), wave destructive interference has plagued severely. It's been absolutely KILLING the winter's storm budget - and this whole trough translation is no different, period! It's translating along carrying the same inharmonic wave contention as every single other one this year and it's a real science in my mind as to why. Regardless of the poorly timed cold air dislodging east, the wave structural issues are just adding to the uncertainty.

My hunch is that it has to do with the multi-decadal tendency for AA north Pacific flow correlation (increasing blocking on 2 to 3 decade cycle), attempting to take place over top of a very warm ENSO...such that the hemisphere on whole may be running on too much gradient. That speeds up the wind velocities, everywhere, which is intrinsically an enhancement of shear in the means. But I don't know for certain - just that shearing and destruction has been dominating the flow characteristics since November, unrelenting, regardless of cause.

For the southwest corner of New England drfinately not a ratter. Sitting within 5 inches of the seasonal average of 30. I agree with NNE and CNE being a ratter.

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