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Feb 15th-17th. Just believe it or leave it.


peteradiator

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Best thing is to hope for a couple of inches as WAA starts. But, I don't see how this goes over CC. Even if it goes over CT, that is a lot of rain right along the track, because of strong frontogenesis/convergence of air. I still think PF needs to keep an eye on it. He's in the best spot...maybe Logan11 too. Although, if the euro is right, ugly for both.

 

The EURO EPS had several good hits from Logan to up here... but I just don't see this swinging far enough east at this point.  The trough is pretty negative back to the west.

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Essentially no snow pack in ENY, including the higher Catskills and a lot of the Dacks I assume.  7.5" season to date at ALB. This winter is on a pace to be as "bad" as the two worst of my life...  1979-80 and 1988-89. Of course one big Nor'easter in March could push as past those two duds, but we aren't getting to our normal of 80" out here.  LOL  Just 70" to go.

10" of snow depth up there in mid-February at 2,000ft along the Canadian border.

 

Wonder what his all time low or low max depth is?  Some winters he's got like a 4-5 foot pack right now.

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Much better chance of a fade northeast of surface pressure in time for BTV on the 0z Euro versus 12Z which was much more impressive and had a closed 5H low over Upstate NY. Also the 0Z Euro didn't try to phase in that following s/w. It went toward the GFS with that. All of which surprised me that the low still made it as far west as the central Mohawk Valley and makes me think this could tick east some....maybe to a southern VT to MWN track or something like that anyway.

 

Its just so strung out and weak now. Went from a stemwinder to meh. You may never hit 32

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NWS Maine discussion

 

THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HANG ONTO SNOW LONGER. LOOKING AT THE

QPF... THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT... ESPECIALLY

NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEBANON NH TO THE LAKES REGION OF MAINE.

THIS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON THE FLUFF FACTOR AND AT THIS POINT IT

LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE NORMAL OR WETTER SNOW THAN WE HAVE

BEEN HAVING RECENTLY...INDICATING SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 1:10 AND

1:13.

 

Was surprised to read this, a significant change since yesterday aft.  06 gfs now appears to run the low up the Kennebec Valley instead of the Hudson?

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Just looked at the point and click for northern Maine, and they must think the low will be more east now, compared to last night. They had snow for Tuesday changing to rain Tuesday night with a low of 32. Now they have the rain changing back to snow Tuesday night and a temp at 21. That's a big difference from yesterday afternoon.

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The NAM has a nice track but it pushes a lot of warmth at 850mb and 925mb up into ENY SVT, and CNH.  Narrow strip of good snows.  Looks some a good bit of freezing rain too.

The NAM also has the follow up wave looking potent at the end of its run.  I don't think this would have quite enough space to develop further, but it's something to look at.

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Maybe I can cash in on being 25 miles west of ALB for once. Been of no help this Winter so far obviously....

The NAM has a nice track but it pushes a lot of warmth at 850mb and 925mb up into ENY SVT, and CNH.  Narrow strip of good snows.  Looks some a good bit of freezing rain too.

The NAM also has the follow up wave looking potent at the end of its run.  I don't think this would have quite enough space to develop further, but it's something to look at.

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I thought some models such as last nights Euro were ridiculous in how fast they were scouring out the low level cold air in the interior. It's gonna start out quite cold here..maybe not exceeding 20F during the daytime Monday. On the coastal plain yeah with the high in that piggish position.

 

I could by an icy area for sure. The cold isn't gonna be scoured out quick in NNE.

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I thought some models such as last nights Euro were ridiculous in how fast they were scouring out the cold air in the interior. It's gonna start out quite cold here..maybe not exceeding 20F during the daytime Monday. On the coastal plain yeah with the high is that piggish position.

We are coming to the time of year where daytime insolation can be overdone on some models.

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