MBRI Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 10" of snow depth up there in mid-February at 2,000ft along the Canadian border. Wonder what his all time low or low max depth is? Some winters he's got like a 4-5 foot pack right now. I have been stuck in several of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Best thing is to hope for a couple of inches as WAA starts. But, I don't see how this goes over CC. Even if it goes over CT, that is a lot of rain right along the track, because of strong frontogenesis/convergence of air. I still think PF needs to keep an eye on it. He's in the best spot...maybe Logan11 too. Although, if the euro is right, ugly for both. The EURO EPS had several good hits from Logan to up here... but I just don't see this swinging far enough east at this point. The trough is pretty negative back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The EURO EPS had several good hits from Logan to up here... but I just don't see this swinging far enough east at this point. The trough is pretty negative back to the west.Its just so strung out and weak now. Went from a stemwinder to meh. You may never hit 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Essentially no snow pack in ENY, including the higher Catskills and a lot of the Dacks I assume. 7.5" season to date at ALB. This winter is on a pace to be as "bad" as the two worst of my life... 1979-80 and 1988-89. Of course one big Nor'easter in March could push as past those two duds, but we aren't getting to our normal of 80" out here. LOL Just 70" to go. 10" of snow depth up there in mid-February at 2,000ft along the Canadian border. Wonder what his all time low or low max depth is? Some winters he's got like a 4-5 foot pack right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Its just so strung out and weak now. Went from a stemwinder to meh. You may never hit 32 GFS just looks strange all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gotta think front end for us ..especially you. Any snow is better than nothing even if taints etc. The EURO EPS had several good hits from Logan to up here... but I just don't see this swinging far enough east at this point. The trough is pretty negative back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What does Jbenedet think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Much better chance of a fade northeast of surface pressure in time for BTV on the 0z Euro versus 12Z which was much more impressive and had a closed 5H low over Upstate NY. Also the 0Z Euro didn't try to phase in that following s/w. It went toward the GFS with that. All of which surprised me that the low still made it as far west as the central Mohawk Valley and makes me think this could tick east some....maybe to a southern VT to MWN track or something like that anyway. Its just so strung out and weak now. Went from a stemwinder to meh. You may never hit 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Give these to me now!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NWS Maine discussion THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HANG ONTO SNOW LONGER. LOOKING AT THE QPF... THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEBANON NH TO THE LAKES REGION OF MAINE. THIS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON THE FLUFF FACTOR AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE NORMAL OR WETTER SNOW THAN WE HAVE BEEN HAVING RECENTLY...INDICATING SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 1:10 AND 1:13. Was surprised to read this, a significant change since yesterday aft. 06 gfs now appears to run the low up the Kennebec Valley instead of the Hudson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Give these to me now! GGEM would be kinder for alot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's pretty amazing how different the Ukie/Euro are from other guidance. It won't matter much down here I don't think except maybe an extra inch or two of snow before the flip, but further north that is a massive difference in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just looked at the point and click for northern Maine, and they must think the low will be more east now, compared to last night. They had snow for Tuesday changing to rain Tuesday night with a low of 32. Now they have the rain changing back to snow Tuesday night and a temp at 21. That's a big difference from yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM has an icy period here...not that it matters 3d out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The NAM has a nice track but it pushes a lot of warmth at 850mb and 925mb up into ENY SVT, and CNH. Narrow strip of good snows. Looks some a good bit of freezing rain too. The NAM also has the follow up wave looking potent at the end of its run. I don't think this would have quite enough space to develop further, but it's something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I could buy an icy area for sure. The cold isn't gonna be scoured out quick in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Either camp has to go one way or the other, No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Watching if the Mesos increase that ice period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Maybe I can cash in on being 25 miles west of ALB for once. Been of no help this Winter so far obviously.... The NAM has a nice track but it pushes a lot of warmth at 850mb and 925mb up into ENY SVT, and CNH. Narrow strip of good snows. Looks some a good bit of freezing rain too. The NAM also has the follow up wave looking potent at the end of its run. I don't think this would have quite enough space to develop further, but it's something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I thought some models such as last nights Euro were ridiculous in how fast they were scouring out the low level cold air in the interior. It's gonna start out quite cold here..maybe not exceeding 20F during the daytime Monday. On the coastal plain yeah with the high in that piggish position. I could by an icy area for sure. The cold isn't gonna be scoured out quick in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I thought some models such as last nights Euro were ridiculous in how fast they were scouring out the cold air in the interior. It's gonna start out quite cold here..maybe not exceeding 20F during the daytime Monday. On the coastal plain yeah with the high is that piggish position. We are coming to the time of year where daytime insolation can be overdone on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Still a few inches on the GFS before tippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks icey overnight in wct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tickle tickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tickle tickle Yeah, west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS track makes sense. Probably icy Berks and NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How exciting to see me jackpot. Congrats Edugss and PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yup. And VT folks should enjoy this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How exciting to see me jackpot. Congrats Edugss and PF You get several inches followed by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Follow up wave digging better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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