Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Is there bad data or something going into the 18Z GFS? Huge, huge change. I was looking for some slight adjustments with this deep storm but the storm itself is basically gone. Really strange???? it's trying to give you hope - don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just joking ... Pete's board : New England Weather Haha I remember that from way back when he started it... didn't know it kept going! Must be a very "positive thoughts" board with Pete at the helm, lol. I was just reading the February 2012 thread where everyone was trying to get him to admit it was a crappy winter and he straight up refused to even acknowledge below normal snow. Then later in the month he broke down and just left for Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There have been some ensemble members that look like that solution so it isn't a shock to see it appear on the OP run. That said, the trend today on all guidance save the European twins (and the JMA apparently...which I didn't see) has been to be less amplified. But those Euro twins are a powerful combo to bet against. We'll obviously know more at 00z. Actually the JMA was slightly less amplified. It is sort of in between the euro and the latest gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Haha I remember that from way back when he started it... didn't know it kept going! Must be a very "positive thoughts" board with Pete at the helm, lol. I was just reading the February 2012 thread where everyone was trying to get him to admit it was a crappy winter and he straight up refused to even acknowledge below normal snow. Then later in the month he broke down and just left for Alaska. You'd see a lot of familiar names there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That run really throws a bone to the ski resorts....wave #3 too around D7-8. Watch us miss this whole thing to the south . Doubtful, hard to go against the consistency of the EURO the past 4 runs or so. But I can tell you 100% western SNE up through NNE expect to get screwed somehow, so lets see if they can prove the masses wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 joking aside... the synoptic appeal of that GFS is a bit of an overrunning snow thump ending as drizzle... then, as that n stream winds up some sort of cyclonic coherency, light rain SE and light snow NW may consolidate in a moderate short duration dynamic burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You'd see a lot of familiar names there You post there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Actually the JMA was slightly less amplified. It is sort of in between the euro and the latest gfswas going to say that. Hard to bet against the Euro, we will know very quickly this weekend. GFS is 30 miles East in upper air evolution from sending the mild surge off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You post there too?No I peek occasionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I love this tweet by Ryan. Bring the kids too! https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/698271332233056258 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I told you not to worry. things are gonna work out for nne. Maybe...just maybe central new england. I spelt that out of respect in the chance hope that some of you flatlanders will see my heart is pure and realize just because my name is not in red does not mean im not a met. Some of us would rather play dumb and be anonymous. . I simply have seen something in the models ( for a while now) that clearly flys the red flags. You got to think outside of the box people to truly be great. I will humbly await and graciously accept the hate.. but frankly ladies and gentleman I dont give a dam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z GEFS definitely not as flat as the op. They do suggest some front end stuff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Watch us miss this whole thing to the south . Doubtful, hard to go against the consistency of the EURO the past 4 runs or so. But I can tell you 100% western SNE up through NNE expect to get screwed somehow, so lets see if they can prove the masses wrong. edgy...come on over to the dark side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 New account created by a banned member lol. I thought you meant the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 10 pages for this? wtfWe had 200 for the Jan Blizzard. Many of us saw zero flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z GEFS definitely not as flat as the op. They do suggest some front end stuff though. seems like a decent spread between some op like members and some amped ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I feel like the Euro is maximizing every possible bit of potential with the atmospheric dynamics that it has to work with. Chances are things don't work out so perfectly. But the GFS is clearly too weak. Maybe a compromise and split the difference between the Euro (Syracuse) and GFS (Boston) such as ohh East Chesterfield or so. I'll take any track that puts me 50+ miles west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Zero here from that of course. Zero from the "surprise" coastal last week. 2" from the IVT associated with the ocean storm of earlier this week. ALB at 7.5" for the season. I'm at 10.4" Andy in GFL at 9.5". We had 200 for the Jan Blizzard. Many of us saw zero flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Zero here from that of course. Zero from the "surprise" coastal last week. 2" from the IVT associated with the ocean storm of earlier this week. ALB at 7.5" for the season. I'm at 10.4" Andy in GFL at 9.5". It has been just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 another thing i just noticed is that the 18z gfs op is all northern stream. it is a completely different than any previous runs where it originated from the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 another thing i just noticed is that the 18z gfs op is all northern stream. it is a completely different than any previous runs where it originated from the southern stream.There's still a decent injection from the stj, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a no brainer to me that the GFS is underplaying the southern stream. Question is....is it on to something in refusing to have the perfect phase like the Euro? A compromise could bring a pretty healthy southern stream low up, but somewhat further east than the extreme Euro solution. There's still a decent injection from the stj, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a no brainer to me that the GFS is underplaying the southern stream. Question is....is it on to something in refusing to have the perfect phase like the Euro? A compromise could bring a pretty healthy southern stream low up, but somewhat further east than the extreme Euro solution.GEPS and GEFS seem pretty weak and diffuse as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There's still a decent injection from the stj, no? Yea. you right. I looked on ewall, shows it better than tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Whoever gets in on this fun should have a good Saturday and as of now looks like the Bar-Harbor area but who knows with these mesoscale events! DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THEREGION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THEVICINITY OF PENOBSCOT BAY SATURDAY WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TOADVISORY-WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.SATURDAY: CORE OF H5 LOW ALOFT SINKS FROM JAMES BAY AT DAYBREAKSOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS EVENING WITH T8SNEARING -30C OVER MY WESTERN ZONES BY 00Z/SUN. COL REGION BETWEENLOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS H5 LOW AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELLSOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK APPEARS TO BE ALLOWING ALL THEINGREDIENTS FOR A BONA-FIDE NORLUN EVENT TO BE PRESENT AS THE H8FLOW GOES SLACK ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE LLEVELS WITH WATER SURFACE TOH8 DELTA TS NEAR -15 AND DELTA TS TO H7 NEARING -30C. THIS ALLOWSFOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LLEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH OCEAN-INDUCEDCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG PORTRAYED ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS.THIS COULD VERY WELL PROMOTE THUNDER WITH ANY SNOW BAND THAT DOESDEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Whoever gets in on this fun should have a good Saturday and as of now looks like the Bar-Harbor area but who knows with these mesoscale events! DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF PENOBSCOT BAY SATURDAY WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO ADVISORY-WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY: CORE OF H5 LOW ALOFT SINKS FROM JAMES BAY AT DAYBREAK SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS EVENING WITH T8S NEARING -30C OVER MY WESTERN ZONES BY 00Z/SUN. COL REGION BETWEEN LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS H5 LOW AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK APPEARS TO BE ALLOWING ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A BONA-FIDE NORLUN EVENT TO BE PRESENT AS THE H8 FLOW GOES SLACK ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE LLEVELS WITH WATER SURFACE TO H8 DELTA TS NEAR -15 AND DELTA TS TO H7 NEARING -30C. THIS ALLOWS FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LLEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH OCEAN-INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG PORTRAYED ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. THIS COULD VERY WELL PROMOTE THUNDER WITH ANY SNOW BAND THAT DOES DEVELOP. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sref looks like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice. Almost worthy of a chase up the Coast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sref looks like the gfsI heard on another site they were ugly.From you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I heard on another site they were ugly. From you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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