UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 soooo......looks like Robert is all in on this one as of right now. I do not have a good feeling on this for the upstate/NE GA. I think this one is going to hurt. Might be time to invest in a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 soooo......looks like Robert is all in on this one as of right now. I do not have a good feeling on this for the upstate/NE GA. I think this one is going to hurt. Might be time to invest in a generator. It has been 11 years since the last major ice storm. I think the system will trend colder and faster getting here like they have all winter this year. Also with the Miller a showing on the GFS would help keep the warm core away from the upstate. I do think it will be snow to sleet type of storm. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It has been 11 years since the last major ice storm. I think the system will trend colder and faster getting here like they have all winter this year. Also with the Miller a showing on the GFS would help keep the warm core away from the upstate. I do think it will be snow to sleet type of storm. Just my opinion.Agree with this! 75% of the time, even when we are supposed to get all zr, we get alot more sleet than forecasted! Good when you are supposed to get ZR, bad when your supposed to get snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GFS is too warm. The low is further north and stronger too early. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12Z GFS trends not good at 108. Wedge weaker than 06Z, back side short wave stronger. Surface low in NW AL as high weakens and retreats. This low is going over us or even north. Fat lady is warming up. This run may even screw the mountains. Edit- awful run for everyone. Low into the TN Valley. Congrats OH Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12Z GFS trends not good at 108. Wedge weaker than 06Z, back side short wave stronger. Surface low in NW AL as high weakens and retreats. This low is going over us or even north. Fat lady is warming up. This run may even screw the mountains. Fat lady warming up over one run of one model? Yikes. Awful knee jerky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah the 12z is cutting west of the Apps at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like 00z Euro Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fat lady warming up over one run of one model? Yikes. Awful knee jerky Especially when the GFS para and regular Euro looked different. Looks like different solutions are still on the table. And we still have four days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like 00z Euro Para That is no good. Para and GFS. If the euro caves we are wet and toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This run is night and day different from 6z and really 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah the 12z is cutting west of the Apps at 114. It tracks over the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Remember the last system the GFS had this solution before correcting south, GEFS and Euro will be important.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fat lady warming up over one run of one model? Yikes. Awful knee jerky Agree just one model run still 4 days out plenty time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It tracks over the foothills. Have trouble believing it will cut right into the cold air. Redevelopment to the east is more likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Temps in the 50's...1000mb low directly overhead...WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Although, to be fair, you had to see this coming when you saw the low locations on the EPS from 0z. I'm not shocked by this at all, especially if Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Have trouble believing it will cut right into the cold air. Redevelopment to the east is more likely imo. I'm a weenie, but I tend to agree. I can't remember many lows tracking over us since I've been here. Hell, I can't think of any, at least recently. I'm almost certainly missing some, of course, but still. We'll see what the other modeling has to say soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It tracks over the foothills.Yeah ended up that way. Either way no Bueno for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We are now a lot closer to the event where these types of trends are much less likely to make a major shift back. Not impossible but looking really unlikely IMO. If the Euro and other models show this we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We are now a lot closer to the event where these types of trends are much less likely to make a major shift back. Not impossible but looking really unlikely IMO. If the Euro and other models show this we are toast. So if no models were showing wintry precip and one run of the GFS showed 10+ inches, you'd hug it and claim a trend? I'm not so sure you would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah, don't know....they've kind of reversed course over the past few runs, regular vs. para Most of the tracks I see for the low are WELL inland now.... I don't think that works and I think the cold gets scoured out quickly with those tracks. I think the Canadian is the still the furthest south and that needs to be the right one if this is going to be a true I-85 winter storm or close to it. I don't like the trend of everything shifting northwest. Very surprised to see this in the paper this morning.....NWS is going all in, I'm not sure what they're seeing in the models though at this point. Certainly hope they're right. 5 inches at CLT? Also, WBTV had "major storm" on their forecast this morning on TV for Monday. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article59730976.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 12Z GFS trends not good at 108. Wedge weaker than 06Z, back side short wave stronger. Surface low in NW AL as high weakens and retreats. This low is going over us or even north. Fat lady is warming up. This run may even screw the mountains. Edit- awful run for everyone. Low into the TN Valley. Congrats OH Valley? A little early to be cliff diving IMO though I understand why you would be. I think I will just stick to GSP's forecast as they tend to be more accurate than any forum member on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Have trouble believing it will cut right into the cold air. Redevelopment to the east is more likely imo. There is no cold air left by then with the high way off the coast. With that strong a short wave having a low go that far north in this case is no problem at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Although, to be fair, you had to see this coming when you saw the low locations on the EPS from 0z. I'm not shocked by this at all, especially if Euro follows suit. I'm not shocked either. After seeing the euro para, you know it's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We are now a lot closer to the event where these types of trends are much less likely to make a major shift back. Not impossible but looking really unlikely IMO. If the Euro and other models show this we are toast. nothing keeping the low south. the path of least resistance would be north. so wouldn't be shocked to see a more north trend. for my area (Charlotte, nc), im not expecting a major winter storm. Maybe front end and back end slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 At 96 hrs, it looks like the Ukmet is just a broad trough with no backside kicker like the gfs. It would imply a better front end thump with no wound up storm on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not sure there is really a "trend" either way yet. Too soon to call either way a trend when you still have different models showing different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 There is no cold air left by then with the high way off the coast. With that strong a short wave having a low go that far north in this case is no problem at all. Exactly...It's not like runs several days ago when this was more of a Monday storm and HP was not off the coast. This is now a Tuesday event and the HP is way off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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