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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

 

the 12z gfs..at 06z tonight. Yes..low 50s from gsp to charlotte. :lol:

 

gfs_T2m_seus_4.png

 

oh and for 03z..or right now. Think it's off much?

 

 

post-12-0-19187600-1455590913_thumb.png

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

Care to give an analysis?

 

Looks like low js in N Al!?

Bingo... a mid level low.

 

Riding along the CAD boundary pumping in WAA.

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

I don't know that computers will ever be able to nail down a true wedge. So many variables that enhance, expand or strengthen them. The exact position of the high and when it retreats. The rate of precip in the cad regions. Pressure gradients as Lookout just eluded to. I guess you could say it's still mother nature and not computer science. It would be a nightmare to predict these type of events. I don't know of one single forecast or computer model that got all of this right in my area. I've just come to expect when we have an actual cad happening that things are going to change and usually over perform...so many variables makes my noggin hurt!

Anyway kudos to Lookout (cad specialist) and props to burrel for never giving in!

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When are all the negative nancies that wrote this storm off for the upstate gonna come eat their crow? It looks like there has been close to 200 accidents in the upstate in the last few hours!

 

i know - some kept hope alive lol.  can verify the reports from ne ga - heard thunder (dog ran and hid) its 29.5 with freezing rain, deck and trees have a good glaze going.  not sure how much longer will last, but i think moto said nam had freezing temps in the ne ga CAD areas until about 11 (if not, whatever model had that is verifying pretty darn well)

 

image what a whopper of a storm we could have had with the precip in by early afternoon, ah what could have been lol

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i know - some kept hope alive lol. can verify the reports from ne ga - heard thunder (dog ran and hid) its 29.5 with freezing rain, deck and trees have a good glaze going. not sure how much longer will last, but i think moto said nam had freezing temps in the ne ga CAD areas until about 11 (if not, whatever model had that is verifying pretty darn well)

image what a whopper of a storm we could have had with the precip in by early afternoon, ah what could have been lol

amazing how that works, it's 46 up here.
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amazing how that works, it's 46 up here.

 

yes it is - really good CADs are always amazing to watch unfold as they happen....they cause strange quirks in the micro-climates around ne ga, western nc and the upstate.  heavier returns are on the proverbial doorstep - and i am guessing 11 will be about when we go above freezing.

 

just saw on the local news site that several roads, and the bridges over the highways, have been closed due to ice.  it didnt take but a couple of hours to really ice things up.  this was a great wedge

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Justus and John C., don't expect the escarpment western foothills of NC to ever go to all rain. They expect it to be frozen through the night.

 

They were right on this.  The temperature is 31.8 F currently IMBY after very heavy rain at times overnight.  Everything is encased in a thick crust of ice.  It's actually quite beautiful.  What an amazing display of CAD!

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Highest I got last night was 34. Was supposed to be 43 at 4am this morning :)

School called a three hour delay at 5am this morning. However, they just called if off due to temps not raising any.

Crazy CAD. 

Also, I have never witness a thunderstorm with a temp of 32 during an Ice storm . 

Dropped back to 32 here now....all bridges iced back over...multiple wrecks in seneca and walhalla! School on schedule..not good!

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What a night. Heard some thunder with the rain last night while still being 30. Temp struggled to get up to 32.. even now the sun is out and its still around 32 in multiple reporting stations around my area.

 

Everything is covered in ice, thankfully no power loss. Roads seem fine now its just everything else covered for now.

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