FLweather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yes but not before we get a bit more of an ice glaze. Btw I prefer trout. With lemon pepper. Actually if that preip over N GA holds together heads towards the upstate SC,NC . There wont be much of a glaze if at all. Too much waa involve in the elevated convection. Rates will not help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Holy carp! WYFF break in just said significant ice incoming as they feared. Wedge not moving as of now.Still 27.7* F here. Edit: They said significant, but I still don't believe that is the right word, but we are about to get a glaze down here. Edit again: It's neat to see this play out. Hope everyone in NC/SC CAD area is comfy and safe. Don't drive! I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around. Yep. Went out to get dinner an hour ago and almost got t-boned by a jackhole that was driving to fast and slid when he braked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 surprised Lookout has not weighed in. Thought he'd be all over this. missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle. Do we think this wedge will move its way even more west and bring ATL below freezing? Or will it retreat and we'll warm back up again? No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward. Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft. That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Thunder sleet Gainesville ga. Or maybe thunder ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Thunder zr in N Ga! Things just got real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle. No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward. Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft. That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn? Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Rds are skating rink around the upstate! Wrecks everywhere, and rds arecshut down! This is becoming a major issue, they can't even keep up with the wrecks! 29° here with light to moderate ZR. The worst is just now getting to upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 IMO, the model that is doing the best right now when it comes to the temps is the French one. The NAM and RGEM did good too. The Euro and GFS should be thrown into the garbage can. HUGE fail with those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Did the HP build back up? Seems like the cad is building again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wyff weather boys geeking out on TV. Impressive to see the cad expand the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wyff weather boys geeking out on TV. Impressive to see the cad expand the last 2 hours. Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. Like Jim Cantore and THUNDERSNOW !Radar lighting up with mod zr, ahead of main band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. Glad I can pick up Spartanburg locals with my antenna Latest HRRR is holding on to frozen precip longer yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 A Mexican standoff! GSP vs WYFF weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Chris Justus might lay an egg or something If he's not careful. His hometown, family and friends, are getting lit up right now. I'd be geeking out too. The radar over Henderson County is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Lookout, what's your obs? Radar shows zr, down to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 WYFF news coverage is really good and showing how the wedge is expanding and in Cessarich's opinion, will continue to expand as the temperatures in Ga have continued to drop as the wedge has continued to drop south. Amazing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 IMBY --- my biggest surprise here is the lack of precipitation. Now that things warmed up enough to melt, we had a trace overnignt, and just .03" so far today. Certainly thought we'd have gotten more than that from the 'first round' of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Interesting to see how it all unfolds. Noticed even KEOE (Newberry, SC) has dropped from 35.5 to 32 degrees over the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 WYFF news coverage is really good and showing how the wedge is expanding and in Cessarich's opinion, will continue to expand as the temperatures in Ga have continued to drop as the wedge has continued to drop south. Amazing.. Yeah, they are geeking out hard and very informative! They seem really concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Justus and John C., don't expect the escarpment western foothills of NC to ever go to all rain. They expect it to be frozen through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 When are all the negative nancies that wrote this storm off for the upstate gonna come eat their crow? It looks like there has been close to 200 accidents in the upstate in the last few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah, they are geeking out hard and very informative! They seem really concerned I would be too if the opposite of what I thought would happen, happened. An expanding wedge? Whodathunk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wonder if GSP looking at possibly making this an ice storm warning? That qpf turning from heavy to light in NE Georgia has me getting deeply concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wonder if GSP looking at possibly making this an ice storm warning? That qpf turning from heavy to light in NE Georgia has me getting deeply concerned.The length of this break in on wyff, is telling! Are saying the models were horribly wrong, as we already knew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Deck, cars and trees completely glazed over here now. Temp 31 and steady...slick as owl s*@t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If it stays light to moderate it might but looks like reports of heavy rain in that band. I'd be surprised if there is a lot of freezing. regardless, yeah the 4km nam had slowly been coming around. Before it came around with actual surface temps, For the last day or so i've been following it's dewpoint temps as a more realistic representation of where the temps were likely to be this evening and that proved to be the right way to go. ' IMO, the model that is doing the best right now when it comes to the temps is the French one. The NAM and RGEM did good too. The Euro and GFS should be thrown into the garbage can. HUGE fail with those two. Absolutely. First image was the 06z gfs forecast for 0z tonight...ie 2 hours ago. 2nd image was the 12z. I hope folks remember this the next time. Did the HP build back up? Seems like the cad is building again. Lack of solar insolation combined with an increased pressure gradient between the low center and pressures over nc are partly responsible for the expansion imo. It's decreasing now but The gradient peaked a few hours ago which is when the cad expanded down this way. Lookout, what's your obs? Radar shows zr, down to you! 32.4 over 30 Rain just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I will eat my crow but this is getting real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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