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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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  On 2/16/2016 at 1:39 AM, cpg2 said:

Yes but not before we get a bit more of an ice glaze. Btw I prefer trout. With lemon pepper. 

Actually if that preip over N GA holds together heads towards the upstate SC,NC . There wont be much of a glaze if at all. Too much waa involve in the elevated convection. Rates will not help.

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  On 2/16/2016 at 1:26 AM, cpg2 said:

Holy carp! WYFF break in just said significant ice incoming as they feared. Wedge not moving as of now.Still 27.7* F here. 

Edit: They said significant, but I still don't believe that is the right word, but we are about to get a glaze down here. 

 

Edit again: It's neat to see this play out. Hope everyone in NC/SC CAD area is comfy and safe. Don't drive!

I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around.

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  On 2/16/2016 at 1:45 AM, Tony Sisk said:

I-385 at Pleasantburg has been closed due to ice. And is a fatality accident on Villa at that same location. Getting too dangerous to drive around.

Yep. Went out to get dinner an hour ago and almost got t-boned by a jackhole that was driving to fast and slid when he braked.

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  On 2/15/2016 at 11:59 PM, UpStateCAD said:

surprised Lookout has not weighed in.  Thought he'd be all over this.

missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle.

 

  On 2/16/2016 at 1:39 AM, GlaringSun said:

Do we think this wedge will move its way even more west and bring ATL below freezing? Or will it retreat and we'll warm back up again?

No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward.  Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft.

 

That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn?

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  On 2/16/2016 at 2:00 AM, Lookout said:

missed this post.. Yeah been preoccupied and busy with other stuff since last night. Sure didn't miss much around here today..not so much as a drop of drizzle.

 

No..atlanta has no shot at freezing. If a location isn't at freezing now they won't get there and that will be As usual from the northeast burbs northeastward.  Although it should be noted that there shouldn't be much freezing even where it's 32/31 because of rain rates and warm air aloft.

 

That's irrelevant to me though because just the fact the wedge has expanded, not contracted, counter to every available guidance save I think the last run or two of the 4km nam is cool.Some stations around atlanta showing a 7 to 9 degree temp drop from the low to mid 40s to mid 30s. Gfs says wtf?! lol..what a bust there by it. Currently where it's 31 to 33..it had temps in the low 50s by now. Maybe they downgraded it to the avn?

 

Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  On 2/16/2016 at 2:22 AM, raysum said:

WYFF news coverage is really good and showing how the wedge is expanding and in Cessarich's opinion, will continue

to expand as the temperatures in Ga have continued to drop as the wedge has continued to drop south. Amazing..

Yeah, they are geeking out hard and very informative! They seem really concerned
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  On 2/16/2016 at 2:26 AM, lilj4425 said:

Wonder if GSP looking at possibly making this an ice storm warning? That qpf turning from heavy to light in NE Georgia has me getting deeply concerned.

The length of this break in on wyff, is telling! Are saying the models were horribly wrong, as we already knew!
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  On 2/16/2016 at 2:04 AM, MyBookMonkey said:

Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If it stays light to moderate it might but looks like reports of heavy rain in that band. I'd be surprised if there is a lot of freezing. regardless,  yeah the 4km nam had slowly been coming around. Before it came around with actual surface temps, For the last day or so i've been following  it's dewpoint temps as a more realistic representation of where the temps were likely to be this evening and that proved to be the right way to go. '

 

 

  On 2/16/2016 at 2:05 AM, lilj4425 said:

IMO, the model that is doing the best right now when it comes to the temps is the French one. The NAM and RGEM did good too. The Euro and GFS should be thrown into the garbage can. HUGE fail with those two.

Absolutely. First image was the 06z gfs forecast for 0z tonight...ie 2 hours ago. 2nd image was the 12z.   I hope folks remember this the next time.

 

 

gfs_T2m_seus_4.png

 

gfs_T2m_seus_3.png

  On 2/16/2016 at 2:06 AM, Mild Rain said:

Did the HP build back up? Seems like the cad is building again.

Lack of solar insolation combined with an increased pressure gradient between the low center and pressures over nc are partly responsible for the expansion imo. It's decreasing now but The gradient peaked a few hours ago which is when the cad expanded down this way.

 

 

 

 

  On 2/16/2016 at 2:17 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Lookout, what's your obs? Radar shows zr, down to you!

32.4 over 30 :axe: Rain just started.

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