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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

lilj4425

By lilj4425,
in Southeastern States

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StormyClearweather

StormyClearweather

Posted
Posted

It still warms up later tonight, but could be heavy damage before hand, when heavier precip gets here and we are all around 28-29, could be rough!

 

Yeah, exactly. I'm surprised at how strong this wedge has been, especially with little/no heavier precip to keep it in place. I thought for sure that would allow it to scour out more quickly. 

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

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UpStateCAD

UpStateCAD

Posted
Posted

This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

yeah I think the heavy qpf will overwhelm the remaining low level cold, but she's been a heck of a wedge.  Like some folks said yesterday.  Each one is a little different and we learn something from everyone of them.

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raysum

raysum

Posted
Posted

This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

Agreed John and Chris on WYFF are nervous right now as wedge extends almost to Atlanta and as I mentioned in the other thread Greenwood as dropped from 34 a few hours ago to below freezing..

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The latest HRRR run came in a tick colder than the last.  Not much of a difference, but considering we're talking about 5-6 hours out, it might make a bit of a difference if it trends like that again.  Looks like it has a couple tenths as ZR in the GSP area before the changeover to rain around 12-1 AM (about the same time GSO goes over to RN).  The HRRR blew this current band here pretty bad, though, as we are way above the QPF it had for this are (0.4"+ compared to 0.2").

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

You guys actually want that big band to lighten up some. If those current rates come over as freezing rain it will quickly rise the temp to 32 or higher. Best freezing rain is lighter banded type precip; like what the Triad is currently getting.

Yeah I suspect temps will rise some, especially over north ga since temps aloft closer to the surface are warmer. Hell the warm nose is so warm and thick the actual temp of the rain drops will be warmer than normal...so i don't suspect there will be much freezing where and when temps are 30.5 or higher. Over the upstate, it's a bit colder from the surface to 925mb so i expect more freezing there

Hi-res models have shown strengthening Northeasterly winds in the upstate just ahead of the front. That's why we are holding on to the wedge longer than anyone. Here's winds at 10pm tonight, 10 to 12 knots.

For a few runs now the models had been showing a 12 to 14mb difference between the low center and pressures in north carolina by late this afternoon to 0z before decreasing..and they were right. That is pretty good for a cad event.

 

When you have this kind of bone dry arctic air in place, the models ALWAYS miss it, by a lot. It just got above 32 all the way over here in SE Wake Co. And much of the area really never achieved maximum wetbulbing. If we would have had area-wide steady moderate to heavy precip, we'd probably be even colder now.

I have to say i'm a bit surprised at the staying power of the wedge due to the fact it's been BONE dry all day in north ga and much of the upstate. There has not been so much as a drop of drizzle here.  i would have expected temps to rise without it area wide. but it only did on the edges thanks in part to the freaking sun coming out for quite a while

 

Speaking of missing it by quite a bit (and  missed opportunities)  Around 5 to 6am this morning, the gfs was as much as 15 degrees too warm with dewpoints and the nam about 10 degrees here before they slowly rose.

 

This has been a fun wedge to follow..(even though i missed a lot  last night and today)..very complex with it's own uniqueness. As always each is a learning experience.

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cpg2

cpg2

Posted
Posted

Holy carp! WYFF break in just said significant ice incoming as they feared. Wedge not moving as of now.Still 27.7* F here. 

Edit: They said significant, but I still don't believe that is the right word, but we are about to get a glaze down here. 

 

Edit again: It's neat to see this play out. Hope everyone in NC/SC CAD area is comfy and safe. Don't drive!

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

KGSP Update

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT COLD AIR WILL HANG ON LONGER THAN 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF 
NC. PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH 
THAT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ICE ACCRETION WILL REACH ONE-QUARTER 
INCH...SO THE ADVISORY WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. 
HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES... 
ESPECIALLY THE BRIDGES...WILL BE SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. EXPECT A 
CONTINUED IMPACT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE ADVISORIES WERE SET TO 
EXPIRE AT 7 PM...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT. HOPEFULLY...WE CAN LOP OFF ZONES THROUGH MID-EVENING AS 
TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
HIGH ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL 
EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS 
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 
ADVISORY LEVEL AS WELL.

PRECIP SHUD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET FUELED DIVERGENCE MOVE 
OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL. 
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES INTENSIFY...WARMING KICKS IN AS WELL. THE 
WARMING SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING FROM SEEING MORE 
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION...BUT THE NW PIEDMONT AND 
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS COULD APPROACH 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS ALONG 
AND NEAR THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING A 
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE...SO THE WARNING REMAINS WELL PLACED.

A DRY SLOT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET. 
THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP FROM SW TO NE OUTSIDE OF THE 
MOUNTAINS BY TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP THRU 
THE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH 
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
ACCUMULATIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND 
PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY 
WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN... 
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH ONLY VERY 
LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE DAY.
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