lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yep , heavy stuff still 5-6 hours away! Wedge can't hold on forever! What might have been! Still not sure why everyone wanted power outages so badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yep , heavy stuff still 5-6 hours away! Wedge can't hold on forever! What might have been! It keeps acting to me like the stiff NE winds are acting as Downsloping does and is just drying up the moisture. The wedge was no problem it was there and still is, hell may even hang on until early morning! But anyway this has been one strange event especially for CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think temps are going to skyrocket in a few hours for almost everyone. Meso high in VA is gone and the warm boundary is on the move through NW through coastal NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, I was thinking the high precip rates would warm us above freezing, but I think we'll already be above freezing before it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 per the Climate page - http://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ - surface freezing temps and wet bulb freezing temps seem to be riding along I95 and creeping NW. The wedge sure shows up nicely, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow had heavy sleet then switched over to snow coming down pretty good here in Pilot Mtn. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Temp waffling and actually just dropped .2 degrees. Sitting at 30.4, rain on the way, it's a race, heavy precip vs wedge! Even latent heat and all that jazz, if it's 30 degrees at onset, some will accrue on the already thin glaze! And we are losing the radiation from the strong Feb sun angle and winds are still gusty out of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 443 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE A MOIST COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE DRY AND MILDER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 430 PM...GROWING CONCERN ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THAT WE MIGHT END UP WITH DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE TEMPS MAKE IT ABOVE 32F. A LOOK AT AREA RADARS REVEALS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY PRECIP TRAINING NWD FROM ROUGHLY THE WEST SIDE OF THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA NWD ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. WET BULB TEMPS BELOW 32F EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRFIELD AND KERSHAW COUNTIES. PRECIP IN LAST TWO HOURS HAS BEEN ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF MORE TRAINING OCCURS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PLACES AROUND CHARLOTTE WILL GET BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID. THIS WILL NOT ALL FREEZE ON CONTACT. SOME WILL RUN OFF...BUT THE LONGER IT CONTINUES THE MORE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PROBLEM. THIS IS A DYNAMIC SITUATION. THE REST OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY WEST OF I-77 AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SHOULD HAVE ONLY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 now that's a wedge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 now that's a wedge.... This needs to be placed in the CAD textbook. That's classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z NAM did it again. Initialized my backyard at 34 degrees when I'm really at 29.1 right now. Where is this model pulling it's observations from??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Johnny C still looking concerned, Chris J then saying it's going to change over to rain in one breath, then saying it may never change over in places like TR! Contradict much !? I'm more confused than ever! It's almost like they are wish casting the wedge to break down, but they know it probably won't ! Temps 30 degrees down to Gainsville, I'm down a 1/2 degree in last 30 min!? About to get real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Johnny C still looking concerned, Chris J then saying it's going to change over to rain in one breath, then saying it may never change over in places like TR! Contradict much !? I'm more confused than ever! It's almost like they are wish casting the wedge to break down, but they know it probably won't ! Temps 30 degrees down to Gainsville, I'm down a 1/2 degree in last 30 min!? About to get real! Hanging on to 28 here... drove to South Gastonia, was 31 Wind coming from the North... how bout that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 28 with winds coming from the North North East at 13. That is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hanging on to 28 here... drove to South Gastonia, was 31 Wind coming from the North... how bout that? But wait, someone said there was no such thing as an in-situ wedge!?? I can't see us jumping 2 or 3 degrees in the next 3 or 4 hours and that could be scary, and as I said and someone else just mentioned, short range models are initializing at 3-5 degrees too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hi-res models have shown strengthening Northeasterly winds in the upstate just ahead of the front. That's why we are holding on to the wedge longer than anyone. Here's winds at 10pm tonight, 10 to 12 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 now that's a wedge.... The wedge is weakening at 925mb, but is hanging on pretty strong at the sfc (image below). As of now, there's no southerly component to the wind in E SC/NC. Hard to tell how this plays out. The air at the sfc is cold and dense, but the increased southerly flow into the wedge should takes its toll as the sfc low approaches. Figure it hangs on a little longer than any model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Boy the Euro really did awesome with this one, sending the low up the Apps and scouring out the wedge this morning. All hail the king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Beat me to posting this! Classic. Sitting at 29 currently in the wedge! now that's a wedge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Boy the Euro really did awesome with this one, sending the low up the Apps and scouring out the wedge this morning. All hail the king!Yep. Can't hug any of these models in my opinion.Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 All the forecasts called for everything to change to rain by now. Busting bad in a lot of places in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Boy the Euro really did awesome with this one, sending the low up the Apps and scouring out the wedge this morning. All hail the king! Those of us that have lived here all our lives (51 years for me) know that the wedge is tough to erode. It has happened so much that forecasters in this area have learned to delay its' breakdown, despite what some model might be showing. This is nothing new. What makes me upset is when we say "models are underestimating the wedge" we are accused of wish-casting. Go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Those of us that have lived here all our lives (51 years for me) know that the wedge is tough to erode. It has happened so much that forecasters in this area have learned to delay its' breakdown, despite what some model might be showing. This is nothing new. What makes me upset is when we say "models are underestimating the wedge" we are accused of wish-casting. Go figure... When you have this kind of bone dry arctic air in place, the models ALWAYS miss it, by a lot. It just got above 32 all the way over here in SE Wake Co. And much of the area really never achieved maximum wetbulbing. If we would have had area-wide steady moderate to heavy precip, we'd probably be even colder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gotta say the 4K NAM nailed this today. Showed the warm up then cool down. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GSP sits at 28/25. No model I'm seeing had us below 30 at 0z. It might be a rough night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like local forecasts are calling for up to 1/4" ZR for the Triad now. Quite a change. Still holding at 28 with moderate ZR at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Freezing Rain advisories for the upstate expire at 7pm... seems like they should be extended until midnight?? Edit: nevermind, they've been extended until midnight as of 6:33pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GSP sits at 28/25. No model I'm seeing had us below 30 at 0z. It might be a rough night.It still warms up later tonight, but could be heavy damage before hand, when heavier precip gets here and we are all around 28-29, could be rough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like local forecasts are calling for up to 1/4" ZR for the Triad now. Quite a change. Still holding at 28 with moderate ZR at the moment. you're in line of training precip, it's all to my east right now, saving me from major icing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Freezing Rain advisories for the upstate expire at 7pm... seems like they should be extended until midnight?? Edit: nevermind, they've been extended until midnight as of 6:33pm. Nothing like extending it a few hours at a time, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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