franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Winter weather products down flood watches up. Time to close the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm still at 26 right now, But sure it will shoot up fast when heavy rain pushes in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is this a duel low kind of transfer or is there a more southern solution in play? Last Hi res NAM had the low in south central VA and it did look like there was some potential for a good changeover in the mountains. Sweating the heavy rains into the wedge tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In Georgia, it's 70 in Valdosta and 30 in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So when is the temp supposed to get above freezing here? Precip coming in heavy now and still 29 here. I thought it was supposed to warm up by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In Georgia, it's 70 in Valdosta and 30 in Gainesville. Huey Lewis wrote a song about it. It's the power of wedge!!! Amazing what a wedge can do...... I'm glad I live in the wedge area, being I can't move to the mountains for NWFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Huey Lewis wrote a song about it. It's the power of wedge!!! Amazing what a wedge can do...... I'm glad I live in the wedge area, being I can't move to the mountains for NWFS.I would rather have flow snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Warm nose racing fast to the nw. Already 45 here in e nc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So when is the temp supposed to get above freezing here? Precip coming in heavy now and still 29 here. I thought it was supposed to warm up by now. Few more hours....I see above freezing temps from Warsaw, NC to south of Fayetteville headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I would rather have flow snow. No way, flow snow is lame, heavy snow one minute then bright sun to melt it all away the next and high winds. But if i lived where you did i would like flow snow more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 No way, flow snow is lame, heavy snow one minute then bright sun to melt it all away the next and high winds. But if i lived where you did i would like flow snow more too honestly, I would rather have lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I would rather have flow snow. Yeah, me too! But not gonna happen, so I'm stuck with the wedge!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 honestly, I would rather have lake effect snow. I would like to experience lake effect for sure. What a dynamic storm though, lots of tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 925 hanging tough.. I'm still at 26 right now, But sure it will shoot up fast when heavy rain pushes in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is this a duel low kind of transfer or is there a more southern solution in play? Last Hi res NAM had the low in south central VA and it did look like there was some potential for a good changeover in the mountains. Sweating the heavy rains into the wedge tonight... I think more southern solution than transfer...I'm leaning heavy on a CMC/GFS track no problem tracking through the Asheville mountain areas but then they seem to show having a problem crossing the northern CAD in north-west NC and take it east out to Greensboro NC instead. This supports icy conditions through 6z Tuesday at least in the northern CAD zone...I don't see much change over to snow in the mountains to amount to much...far better flooding concern than additional snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sun is peaking out. SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 All of the models, (including short range), have busted badly here with the wedge. We had a high of 29.7 and are currently at 28.7 and dropping. The coldest models had my location at 32 right now. Those same models actually drop the temperature a couple degree's after dark when the heavy precip arrives so it will be interesting to see where we wind up. My gut tells me heavy freezing rain accumulations will be limited by the heavy nature of the precip, and the rapidly warming mid-levels which the heavy rain will begin to carry down towards the surface eroding the CAD. I still wouldn't be surprised if we got a decent amount of ice-glaze before that happens. We will find out soon enough. I believe the foothills in NC will get absolutely hammered tonight with the freezing rain. A small band through that area will get 1/4 to 1/2 inch glazing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hmmm, just looked at the 4km NAM at 3pm it has my temperature at 34 degree's??? How can it be 5 degree's off with a 3 hour lead time; talk about poor initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 How many times do we have to say it, models ALWAYS UNDERESTIMATES the strength of the wedge and bust to warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Unfortunately, heavy convective type precip like we have on the way tonight really puts the squeeze on CAD. I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations. Warmer droplets, heavy rates, and marginal temps will result in modest accrual at most. Hope I'm wrong as I love a good ice storm. 28.2 in Colfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Unfortunately, heavy convective type precip like we have on the way tonight really puts the squeeze on CAD. I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations. Warmer droplets, heavy rates, and marginal temps will result in modest accrual at most. Hope I'm wrong as I love a good ice storm. 28.2 in Colfax. Agree heavy rain most just runs off. Sure some will freeze for a while but you need steady lgt/mod rain for a good Ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 EDIT: Pivotal Weather graphics are much tamer than Stormvista's. So if those are correct, a much more benign situation than I was alluding to below. "IF" if we were still watching global models for this little event, the 18z NAM would scare me to death for the upstate. Both the NAM and Hires NAM initial temperatures are too high by 4 degrees. If one were to compensate for this by just looking at the precip that falls while the temp is 33 F and below......well.....Not Good. Disclaimer.....this is based solely on the Stormvista graphics, they were somewhat more omnibus than the actual data for the 12z. Hopefully that is the case this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 EDIT: Pivotal Weather graphics are much tamer than Stormvista's. So if those are correct, a much more benign situation than I was alluding to below. "IF" if we were still watching global models for this little event, the 18z NAM would scare me to death for the upstate. Both the NAM and Hires NAM initial temperatures are too high by 4 degrees. If one were to compensate for this by just looking at the precip that falls while the temp is 33 F and below......well.....Not Good. Disclaimer.....this is based solely on the Stormvista graphics, they were somewhat more omnibus than the actual data for the 12z. Hopefully that is the case this run as well. It is interesting that the 18z NAM actually builds the 32F line a bit further south over the late afternoon and early evening timeframe. Looks to show around two-tenths of ZR here before we warm up into the 40s and get rain (10 degree increase in 3 hours, which I think is probably overdone, but maybe not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations. Agreed this is NOT a really heavy ice event for WNC....in order for that to have occurred we would have wanted ice to start immediately after our snow accumulations yesterday evening without stopping through now...that didn't happen far from it. Don't get me wrong...some may still see a quarter inch of ice which is considered a heavy ice event even Ice Storm Warning criteria. The best chance of this is north or west of Winston-Salem, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Latest RAP warms us (Upstate SC) exponentially over the next several hours...and NWS GSP keeps backing down on icing totals by a lot. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Latest RAP warms us (Upstate SC) exponentially over the next several hours...and NWS GSP keeps backing down on icing totals by a lot. Next... And that's a wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 And that's a wrap Been a wrap. Tried telling people not to buy into the hype of a possible bigger "significant event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Anybody ever seen a meteogram like this? From .3 to 5.8 to 1.1 to 4.8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 meteo.png Anybody ever seen a meteogram like this? From .3 to 5.8 to 1.1 to 4.8? Dynamical cooling in the band on the backside? Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Been a wrap. Tried telling people not to buy into the hype of a possible bigger "significant event."Yep , heavy stuff still 5-6 hours away! Wedge can't hold on forever! What might have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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