msuwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Also, I could see this starting as early as Sunday Evening given the soundings get saturated quick. There's the dry air to fight off at the surface but I'd expect this thing to either be quicker or wetter than its currently presenting at the beginning of the event. Yep, I've seen it a bunch of times..... and where that finger of initial precip set ups, it snows for a while while areas outside of that area go nuts waiting. Happened with the Christmas storm a few years ago.... Triad area got thumped all day while Charlotte region waited and waited. That initial band can put down some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yep, I've seen it a bunch of times..... and where that finger of initial precip set ups, it snows for a while while areas outside of that area go nuts waiting. Happened with the Christmas storm a few years ago.... Triad area got thumped all day while Charlotte region waited and waited. That initial band can put down some snow though. And that is another thing that's almost impossible to nail down on models and forecasts. I've often wondered if it's the trajectory of the main storm or the tilt and or which level jet that influences this the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 For those in the GSP area, Nicole on fox21 said, light snow by 6 AM, moderate snow by noon, then change to rain in afternoon! Never heard her be this aggressive 3-4 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sounds like things are still on track for a wintry mess. Of course, there is still a lot of time for things to change. It wouldn't even take much snow/ice to cause problems getting around with as cold as it has been this week into next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 For those in the GSP area, Nicole on fox21 said, light snow by 6 AM, moderate snow by noon, then change to rain in afternoon! Never heard her be this aggressive 3-4 days out! I would say there's enough model consistency for them to know a winter storm is coming. But yea its early for them. Read GSP for Upstate, they already calling for snow likely all day Monday changing sometime Tues morning! And we know they are very conservative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 E. Gardner says no worries, the rain will wash it all away quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Our friend Snowgoose posted this in the wrong thread. Good point he makes! Assuming we don't see a major N shift in the next 36 hours, people will fall off their chairs when this comes into range on the NAM and they see the temps it spits out at places like GSP/AHN/ATL at hour 84 vs what the globals had been showing. I've seen cases where the NAM gets into range on a wedge situation and is 12-15 degrees colder than what the globals had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sounds like things are still on track for a wintry mess. Of course, there is still a lot of time for things to change. It wouldn't even take much snow/ice to cause problems getting around with as cold as it has been this week into next. If the euro para is correct we won't even have a wintry mess. Maybe 2 hours of sn/ip then straight to rain for 24 hours. Of course this is just one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 For those in the GSP area, Nicole on fox21 said, light snow by 6 AM, moderate snow by noon, then change to rain in afternoon! Never heard her be this aggressive 3-4 days out! Dale on WYFF is saying snow Monday afternoon. (GSP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 E. Gardner says no worries, the rain will wash it all away quickly. yeah but how long will it be a mess before the rain washes it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the euro para is correct we won't even have a wintry mess. Maybe 2 hours of sn/ip then straight to rain for 24 hours. Of course this is just one model. Good to have the Euro para on our side since it has great verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah. Going with Snow lIkely at a 70%. Weather Underground is going for 3-5" here on Monday. GSP is really aggressive for Monday. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Good to have the Euro para on our side since it has great verification scores. I agree... I have a feeling we'll be saying your name a lot on Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Models have taken a dramatic step towards a apps runner. I will caution everybody that this is a major adjustment in the track and that some adjustment towards previous runs should happen. GFS Vs. Ens Canadian Vs. ens Canadian and GFS op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Our friend Snowgoose posted this in the wrong thread. Good point he makes! Yes he does Taking a blend of the Euro/Nam for this area is usually the best way to go.....usually.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Once again it looks like im not in the best position here in Danville, and would be better off in Marion... The N Foothills and Mtns should do really well if the low tracks as is modeled on the GFS and EURO. I have seen this setup in the past 3-5 snow, then sleet then ZR perhaps switching back to snow before ending (especially mtns) Most thought I was in a better spot here in Danville for the last storm but Marion had 13 inches and only 8 for Danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Models have taken a dramatic step towards a apps runner. I will caution everybody that this is a major adjustment in the track and that some adjustment towards previous runs should happen. GFS Vs. Ens Canadian Vs. ens Canadian and GFS op runs. That does not show models trending towards an app runner.. piedmont or I 95 maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That does not show models trending towards an app runner.. piedmont or I 95 maybe... Apps runner is worst case at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That does not show models trending towards an app runner.. piedmont or I 95 maybe... Exactly what I was thinking. Chris Justus seems to agree in his update just minutes ago: Chris Justus, Meteorologist 2 mins · Facebook Mentions · QUICK UPDATE: Overnight models in better agreement with a stronger low pressure system and a track along I-95 Sunday night through Monday Night. With the deep cold air in place before the storm it looks like areas north of I-85 could be looking at a significant winter storm while areas south are looking at more of a nuisance event. That line will be just like last time, harsh! Meaning 5-10 miles can make a huge difference on impacts. Once the morning models come in I'll have a full video update for you. My goal is to try to pinpoint that line today, it could be I-40, the NC/SC line, but more likely it will be I-85. Tomorrow we will talk totals. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Apps runner is worst case at this point. I agree, especially if the UKMET. doesn't show its phased bomb solution again. This this is a west of 77 North of 85 type storm I believe although that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That does not show models trending towards an app runner.. piedmont or I 95 maybe... GSP saying I-20 to I-95 track is what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I agree... I have a feeling we'll be saying your name a lot on Monday/Tuesday. Haha maybe so. Still a long time to go, though. A weaker high pulling out faster is probably my biggest concern at this point. Although I will say, I don't care for another major ice storm this year, so maybe "concern" isn't the right word. If we don't start trending back toward a colder scenario with more snow/sleet around these parts, I will absolutely be pulling for flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Models have taken a dramatic step towards a apps runner. I will caution everybody that this is a major adjustment in the track and that some adjustment towards previous runs should happen. GFS Vs. Ens Canadian Vs. ens Canadian and GFS op runs. that's Not an apps runner and if anything the models have moved away from a cutter/runner solution. Just yesterday you were talking about this bring a weak "zipper low" and not much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 E. Gardner says no worries, the rain will wash it all away quickly. Yeah, if you live south and east of the Triad this looks to be a non event. We will watch any frozen stuff we get melt away with several hours of a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 E. Gardner says no worries, the rain will wash it all away quickly. We'll see. Still plenty of time to go. And a couple of hours of snow and ice with the temps we will have until then can cause the roads to be a mess quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What a disaster the Euro has been with this storm, massive run to run changes. This is why some of us have said the Euro is not what it used to be. Of course the "Euro is king" crowd will be out again talking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I agree, especially if the UKMET. doesn't show its phased bomb solution again. This this is a west of 77 North of 85 type storm I believe although that can change. Yup, trends in the GFS have been dramatically west. We need 12z runs to halt the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Was a disaster the Euro has been with this storm, massive run to run changes. This is why some of us have said the Euro is not what it used to be. Of course the "Euro is king" crowd will be out again talking it up. The GGEM and RGEM have done much better for my area the last couple of years than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What a disaster the Euro has been with this storm, massive run to run changes. This is why some of us have said the Euro is not what it used to be. Of course the "Euro is king" crowd will be out again talking it up. Honestly I can see the GFS scenario more likely happening.. some overunning precip reinforcing the CAD than LP tracking through central SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GSP talking significant snow accumulations espcially wnc, extreme upstate and n. ga. to stay tuned. Now starting Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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