mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Guess it a wait and see here! Temp is 28/17 precip is a few hours away. Will the wedge hold, or do we warm? My guess is warm to 33 or 34 by noon and safely at those temps at the onset of heavy precip this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wedge is in full effect at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Seems to me we now get to see just how fast that CAD wedge can break down in this situation to avoid major ice storm power outages. Experience tells me that it will take longer than the models indicate. Just hope its soon enough and the bulk of moisture stays away till then, otherwise its "boom boom, out go the lights." Maybe someone can temper that concern? Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What time is the main precip supposed to move in to NC? If the wedge holds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Heavy freezing rain in Sanford and Moore county Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What time is the main precip supposed to move in to NC? If the wedge holds.... It looks patchy and fairly light but persistent for most of the day. Steady heavier rain looks to be tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It might be a light glaze or a little more, but the roads must be bad... saw this on a local forum just now... "It was very, very bad out there this morning. Saw at least 100 cars from US70 to RTP off the road. Worst were the US70/I40 area and the US1/I40 areas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Things are starting to moisten up here in my part of upstate temp starting dropping again so I'm not at 26/21 with RH 81% got a NE wind of around 5-10mph. Just waiting on something to reach the surface, but not gonna be long I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Heavy freezing rain in Sanford and Moore county Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your right in the middle of that south/SW feed into the Triangle. The main band continues to be north in extreme north NC and south Virginia; but there's a separate SW to NE precip feed that is currently pointed right at the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Main returns are about two hours away from getting to me NE of you in NC. Let us know if anything makes it down. Things are starting to moisten up here in my part of upstate temp starting dropping again so I'm not at 26/21 with RH 81% got a NE wind of around 5-10mph. Just waiting on something to reach the surface, but not gonna be long I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Care to explain your reasoning? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's a Nowcast and the radar shows all we need to see. Bulk of moisture is still streaming northerly through Tenn Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It might be a light glaze or a little more, but the roads must be bad... saw this on a local forum just now... "It was very, very bad out there this morning. Saw at least 100 cars from US70 to RTP off the road. Worst were the US70/I40 area and the US1/I40 areas." thanks for the update. We will be trying this around 6-7 this eve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM just got real interesting for the upstate (KGSP in particular).....as of 7Z Tuesday morning, temps holding at 32 and total QPF is pushing 1 inch.........not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM just got real interesting for the upstate (KGSP in particular).....as of 7Z Tuesday morning, temps holding at 32 and total QPF is pushing 1 inch.........not over yet. Similar soundings for KGMU? Looking at trends for the wedge and how fast it moves out to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 frustrating storm for me haven't seen a flake of snow or for that matter any type of precip yet when some folks all around us were getting all day yesterday. we have done ok before with storms coming from the west not as good as the southwest but this precip just kept going around us, if everyone else the column became saturated surprised we didn't either. boy 1-3 inches has turned into nary a flake or sleet pellet. I agree... I know it's just weather but it really is extremely frustrating to see the snow arc around Asheville all day yesterday. What a complete waste of some of the coldest/driest air of the season. I know at this point that by the time the precip. actually reaches our area, we will have just warmed up enough for it to be all rain. What a pathetic disappointment! Edit: It actually looks like the precip. just to the west of our area is going to slide adjacent to us all day and not even reach our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM just got real interesting for the upstate (KGSP in particular).....as of 7Z Tuesday morning, temps holding at 32 and total QPF is pushing 1 inch.........not over yet. well according to Pivotal Weather it only drops 0.14 of ice, but it is much closer to a bigger deal. Using there graphics up to a half an inch of rain falls with temperature VERY close to freezing in the wee hours Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like the radar is exploding with the precip coming off the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM just got real interesting for the upstate (KGSP in particular).....as of 7Z Tuesday morning, temps holding at 32 and total QPF is pushing 1 inch.........not over yet. If it goes any lower than that, this area will look like a war zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 well according to Pivotal Weather it only drops 0.14 of ice, but it is much closer to a bigger deal. Using there graphics up to a half an inch of rain falls with temperature VERY close to freezing in the wee hours Tuesday morning.I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If goes any lower than that, this area will look like a war zone. Don't worry. Upstate will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic agree.....I'm just not sure if there is "a" model we can trust even at this short range to handle the "wedge" correctly. That being said, the met's at GSP have seen this time and time again and generally do a good job with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think we are fine. No media is sounding the alarm, and dp's are climbing, so when precip starts, whenever that might be, temps at 31/32 will not drop because the air is saturating! If somehow, it's still 28-30 when heavier precip comes in, could be problematic The NAM looks to be about a degree too warm with the temp at GSP, and two degrees too warm for the DP. Does it matter later? I guess that's the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Don't worry. Upstate will be fine. Yeah...that's what they said last time. We all saw how that went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If needed, GSP will sound the alarm. Either way, fun watching models since that is all this system has been for my area so far agree.....I'm just not sure if there is "a" model we can trust even at this short range to handle the "wedge" correctly. That being said, the met's at GSP have seen this time and time again and generally do a good job with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Should we really be looking at models? looking at actural temps/winds trends? Seems like what will affect most of us in the upstate sc area is coming into auburn AL I think we should wait till that batch moves into Atlanta and take a hard look at temps and dew points. Really don't see this a a major event south of the state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Two hours ago there was nothing and now everything is covers with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Main returns are about two hours away from getting to me NE of you in NC. Let us know if anything makes it down. I'm not in NC I'm in upstate sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Having said the above, looks like the 4K 12Z NAM is warmer a little earlier than the 6Z - it takes GSP to 33 by 1am, where the 6Z had GSP at 32 at that time. Interestingly, it has CLT go from 34 at 1am, to 52 at 4am, then back down to 39 at 7am. Pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah I know that. I stated I was NE of you in NC. Has to travel past your area first. I'm not in NC I'm in upstate sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I suspect that the NWS may need to extend the zr advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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