mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We were under a ZR advisory until 1pm tomorrow, now we are under a WWA until 7pm! Hmmm! I think we are under both, but the extension to 7 is telling! Must have seen the NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We were under a ZR advisory until 1pm tomorrow, now we are under a WWA until 7pm! Hmmm! I think we are under both, but the extension to 7 is telling! Must have seen the NAM and RGEM Mack, I still see Greenville County under a Freezing Rain Advisory on the GSP website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Mack, I still see Greenville County under a Freezing Rain Advisory on the GSP websiteI'm just going by the graphic on WYFF 4, in the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I have no idea what's going on and neitner does anybody else. The end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm just going by the graphic on WYFF 4, in the corner WWA Is for the Northern half of greenville, oconee, and Pickens. The southern half of those counties are under a ZR advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 WWA Is for the Northern half of greenville, oconee, and Pickens. The southern half of those counties are under a ZR advisoryOh, ok, their graphic sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This setup is such a tease! 26/5 in Easley at 11:00pm. I think that would wetbulb to about 19 or 20. If the track had been closer to what was shown a few days back (South GA to Chas) this could have been Jan 88 part deux. I'm not impressed with the radar so far. The flare up in N AL right now will have a tough time tracking through the N GA mtns (as always) and is a very thin and broken line anyway. The other developing precip trailing behind is also very broken and thin. All the models are showing very patchy and broken precip through the upstate tomorrow with the "big" line coming through late and quick. If there is not a ton of infill overnight the rain totals will even be spotty and generally unimpressive. We'll see if the low can tap enough gulf moisture to bring more in or not. As Burrell and Upstate Bud have said though, if the wedge is more stout than anticipated, one would think the SLP would have a harder time and could thus be pushed a bit more south still. In reality, I don't think anyone really has a good grasp on it. Congrats to the NC guys who got some snow today - I'm quite envious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 afd update ...however concern is that strong warm airadvection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change thisrenewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west ofCrossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is adistinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So wait a minute... Chapel Hill under WSW until 9pm tomorrow but Durham's WWA expires at 1pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 afd update ...however concern is that strong warm air advection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change this renewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west of Crossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is a distinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at 850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning. Amazing really, at 12 currently and haven't gotten out of the teens today so it's crazy to think 850s will hit 0 by daybreak. Depressing really given the circumstances. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Amazing really, at 12 currently and haven't gotten out of the teens today so it's crazy to think 850s will hit 0 by daybreak. Depressing really given the circumstances. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Brad's future-cast is in agreement maybe an hour later...Boone will be 6 degrees warmer than Greensboro...the above freezing temps stay in Boone and can't progress eastward with the CAD banked up against the mountains tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Tomorrow will be more about the precip rather than temps. Hope we can get it in here. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Temps and simulated radar look to be pretty spot on in relation to the 00Z hi-RES NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Once again, I don't think anybody has a true clue what is going on. Wake me up when this stupid system is over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Brad's future-cast is in agreement maybe an hour later...Boone will be 6 degrees warmer than Greensboro...the above freezing temps stay in Boone and can't progress eastward with the CAD banked up against the mountains tomorrow afternoon. I'm probably wrong but i don't buy boone going above freezing at daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Brad Panovich said it would be 7-9pm tomorrow night before changeover to rain at the earliest. It should stay in the 20's to low 30's, North of I-40, most of the day in the Western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm probably wrong but i don't buy boone going above freezing at daybreak If that low goes to your south then maybe not, but the GFS set-up would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 afd update ...however concern is that strong warm air advection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change this renewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west of Crossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is a distinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at 850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning. We actually observed a slight warm nose at 800 mb level from our 3z and 6z balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Anyone care to make a small generic forecast for the next 5-10 hours or so for the Greenville-Spartanburg area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Anyone care to make a small generic forecast for the next 5-10 hours or so for the Greenville-Spartanburg area?? First 5 hours are pretty straight forward. Subfreezing surface temps with precip chances increasing. the 5 hours after that is a little murky. Keep an eye on the short-range models and the radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stepandfetch Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Speaking of radar trends, precip filling back in to nw NC, about to move into the northern piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am in "NOWCAST" mode and studying the radar extensively. It appears that the lower Piedmont of North Carolina and potentially the Upstate of SC (areas closer to the NC/SC state line) will be fighting a tough battle to gain any appreciable precipitation during the optimum times of having the cold in place. It seems there are issues with dry air, convection back towards the gulf states and overall track. I hope I am wrong and we can get some lifting going soon. Right now, the Apps seem to be splitting the precip as well, like I have seen a million times before for my area and respective areas close by. Hopefully, things can pick up in the next 3 hours. I am glad to see some areas pick up 1-3" (depending on your location)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR 600pm Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN AND CNTRL NC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 151002Z - 151600Z SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND LATER TOWARDS AND AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY TO THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE. FREEZING-RAIN RATES AT OR ABOVE 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS FORECAST. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WSW-ENE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SRN MIDDLE TN MOVING ENEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A STRONG WAA REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD/STRENGTHEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING ATOP A COLD DOME IN PLACE E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 00Z GSO RAOB SHOWED A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM THE W AND S HAS LIKELY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUAL COLUMNAR SATURATION/WET BULB COOLING IS EXPECTED. THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG C BETWEEN H9-H85 AND ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND THIS LAYER WILL FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND LATER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS OVER NWRN NC. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SWATH OF HIGHER RATES OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ..SMITH.. 02/15/2016 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36357826 36228307 35488395 35318292 35717803 36357826 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 frustrating storm for me haven't seen a flake of snow or for that matter any type of precip yet when some folks all around us were getting all day yesterday. we have done ok before with storms coming from the west not as good as the southwest but this precip just kept going around us, if everyone else the column became saturated surprised we didn't either. boy 1-3 inches has turned into nary a flake or sleet pellet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 fritschy, Talkweather is reporting some returns in the ATL area (finally) - this is a NC-centric sub-forum and you may not see GA obs on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 fritschy, Talkweather is reporting some returns in the ATL area (finally) - this is a NC-centric sub-forum and you may not see GA obs on this board It's a southeastern subforum. The forum has no control over where the posters that actually post are from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Our chances are almost 0 anywhere in SC or GA. The closest precip to us is around Rome GA and moving northeast. It'll be after dark tonight before anyone east of the GSP metro area gets 1 drop of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Our chances are almost 0 anywhere in SC or GA. The closest precip to us is around Rome GA and moving northeast. It'll be after dark tonight before anyone east of the GSP metro area gets 1 drop of anything. Care to explain your reasoning? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Care to explain your reasoning? Same as James Shetley's reasoning for everything- endless pessimism. Though in this case he may be partially right as far as SC is concerned. Thinking it's mainly a non event for most except for extreme northern parts of the upstate. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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