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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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Raysweather upped his snow map...6-8" now for western part of the northern foothills and expanded the 4-6"....was mostly 2-4"...and still is for Elkin...but I think the 6-8" will come this way if he keeps tweaking east.

I don't see how we get 6-8 out of this
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NWS now has Colfax back up to 1-3" tonight and maybe an inch tomorrow. Anyone think some RAH counties may be upgraded back to a warning?

TW

 

My forecast for tonight went from "up to one inch" to "less than one inch".   Tomorrow is now "less than 1/2 inch".  Not worth measuring.  

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My forecast for tonight went from "up to one inch" to "less than one inch". Tomorrow is now "less than 1/2 inch". Not worth measuring.

MBY overnight forecast from RAH went 1"-3" to 0.5" to 1". They just seem to react and slowly at that. I'm at over 1" already with a couple of more hours of snow remaining from this first band coming through. RAH will have to up it again to make themselves look accurate.

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I don't see how we get 6-8 out of this

Boone gets 6-8 inches from flurries. You guys are the "Chuck Norris" of snow ( sorry for the banter).

Really is too bad this thing didn't track a couple hundred miles to the south, coulda been one for the ages.looks like the models are making this track a runner. Needs another high over the upper Midwest to steer it south and east.What might have been!

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I know we keep hearing about warming up, but it's now 21 degrees in Burlington with still a few degrees worth of wet bulb available.  That is gonna be REALLY hard to scour out, particularly with a few inches of snow on the ground....

 

 

This is gonna be REAL close to busting in a serious way on the severe side if the heavy stuff come sin tomorrow as ZR/IP

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Lulz...

I know we keep hearing about warming up, but it's now 21 degrees in Burlington with still a few degrees worth of wet bulb available.  That is gonna be REALLY hard to scour out, particularly with a few inches of snow on the ground....

 

 

This is gonna be REAL close to busting in a serious way on the severe side if the heavy stuff come sin tomorrow as ZR/IP

My forecast for tonight went from "up to one inch" to "less than one inch".   Tomorrow is now "less than 1/2 inch".  Not worth measuring.

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Is people getting confused with the initial precip and the main Low that's suppose to bring all the precip to places like us in the upstate? I mean ours has not even got here yet and I'm sitting at 28/8 so when it starts tomorrow we gonna probably wet bulb to about 22 so that would cause havoc. And what if it does warm when the heavy stuff gets here? We will have a hell of an Ice storm if it doesn't all I can say!

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Is people getting confused with the initial precip and the main Low that's suppose to bring all the precip to places like us in the upstate? I mean ours has not even got here yet and I'm sitting at 28/8 so when it starts tomorrow we gonna probably wet bulb to about 22 so that would cause havoc. And what if it does warm when the heavy stuff gets here? We will have a hell of an Ice storm if it doesn't all I can say!

Guess we need to watch the showers in N AL? They could be here by daybreak. Headed almost due E
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Guess we need to watch the showers in N AL? They could be here by daybreak. Headed almost due E

Radar starting to fill in back into miss also. All that once saturated and reaching ground would most likely be snow/IP/ZR when it gets in here. My temps still dropping I'm at 27 now so it be hard pressed to warm to 32 by heavy precip tomorrow evening. But who knows

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My forecast for tonight went from "up to one inch" to "less than one inch".   Tomorrow is now "less than 1/2 inch".  Not worth measuring.  

 

 

MBY overnight forecast from RAH went 1"-3" to 0.5" to 1". They just seem to react and slowly at that. I'm at over 1" already with a couple of more hours of snow remaining from this first band coming through. RAH will have to up it again to make themselves look accurate.

 

LOL at RAH.  They went back up to 1"-3" overnight for MBY.

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Latest NAM is faster with the precip band tomorrow evening for the upstate and a couple degree's colder at the surface. This is getting really close. Also, it made a huge shift south with the surface low and now tracks it from just north of Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC.

 

 

post-309-0-39537500-1455502672_thumb.png

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Guess we need to watch the showers in N AL? They could be here by daybreak. Headed almost due E

 

Yes, good eye. They are banding and building.

 

Is people getting confused with the initial precip and the main Low that's suppose to bring all the precip to places like us in the upstate? I mean ours has not even got here yet and I'm sitting at 28/8 so when it starts tomorrow we gonna probably wet bulb to about 22 so that would cause havoc. And what if it does warm when the heavy stuff gets here? We will have a hell of an Ice storm if it doesn't all I can say!

 

Very concerned about a major ice storm. Probably north of you through the Blue Ridge front range, foothills and Brushy Mountains, possibly out into the piedmont.

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at this point i dont know what to believe anymore lol - the models may be showing this or that, but they are all close...thinking that for mby, at least, its just going to be a matter of complete now-cast.  what is the temp/dewpoint when the precip starts - just a few degrees will make all the difference and right now just appears too close to call for the lower parts of the CAD ares

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So I'm not sure if anyone's noticed or not, but the NAM is definitely a bit colder IMBY/the CAD areas through 24.

18Z:

sfctrv.png

0Z:

sfctrv.png

Very interesting! JB is hugging the NAM! I can't recall the last time I was this cold, waiting on moisture! Wind is still gusty from the ENE, I'm at 29.8, could wetbulb to about 23/24 if mod precip got here in the morning, and doubt if that happened, we would ever reach 32 tomorrow evening! That NAM run was concerning, to say the least! Paging Lookout
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I'll say this. I think think there is a small chance that we could be looking at similar ice totals as the December 2005 storm for Georgia and SC. One potential saving grace is it seems like this storm won't have that much qpf, and what does come through will be moving quick. So maybe not too much ice would accrete even if temps bust on the low side, (say 30 or 31 tomorrow night).

 

For this to turn into a big event in the upstate, we would need to see more precip streaming out ahead of the main front tomorrow afternoon from the gulf. The Hrrr seems to be hinting at this a little bit. It will come down to how the radar looks when we wake up in the morning and where we stand on our temps/dewpoints. I'm sitting at 29/7 currently. 

 

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but possible.

post-309-0-87081500-1455504015_thumb.gif

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