NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I need to change my forecast somewhat for the areas that were always in ground zero. I think the northern mountains will over perform and my own backyard forecast of 2-4" will bust and be closer to 6". This is based on way earlier start time and steadier snow than expected in cold air. Here is the LIVE shot in Boone where conditions are similar east of the mountains in Surry. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I wouldn't classify that as a low pressure storm...that was more like an upper level low. I could be wrong though...so forgive me if so. As far as right now, all we got to do is look at the radar and satellites...there is nothing near us. Now, the secondary low will develop and pull gobs of moisture our way...not sure we will see much before the temps change. Still can't help but think about the wetbulbs getting to the Low to mid 20s and that locking in and wedge not going anywhere. Folks better hope temps go above 32 all I can say. If they don't well you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Interesting how the radar returns fall apart as they enter Durham County. Been that way for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is there ever a time when models increase snowfall totals as we move in? That hardly ever happens, unless you live in 2000. That's what I was wondering. I hear we shouldn't be watching these models now. I guess we do it because we are masochists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Still can't help but think about the wetbulbs getting to the Low to mid 20s and that locking in and wedge not going anywhere. Folks better hope temps go above 32 all I can say. If they don't well you know. ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ice? Lots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lots I think you may be accurate...looks like the cold may hang around a bit longer than forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lots LOL when? where is the precip coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is there ever a time when models increase snowfall totals as we move in? That hardly ever happens, unless you live in 2000.they did for Charlotte and the upstate last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Highly doubt it. Warm air from the Atlantic will move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Still can't help but think about the wetbulbs getting to the Low to mid 20s and that locking in and wedge not going anywhere. Folks better hope temps go above 32 all I can say. If they don't well you know.Even socked in with clouds all day tomorrow , it will slowly warm , with no precip! I might bottom out at 29, but the air and DP will moisten all day on E winds, and precip is not expected until evening, and we get a 33-35 degree flooding rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That's what I was wondering. I hear we shouldn't be watching these models now. I guess we do it because we are masochists? Haha probably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 they did for Charlotte and the upstate last year.... Feels like it usually goes the other way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Feels like it usually goes the other way though.well that busted really bad for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NWS says ha. Ha. Ha. Ha. Still think we could see more ice in spots in north Wake higher than .03in. Schools hear that brief and th sigh in his voice and school will be on. Lol. Orange County started with a delay tomorrow. Guess it's a space saver til later. How cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LOL when? where is the precip coming from? I'm talking about upstate area and I'm talking about the main Low that's still back in Texas. I was saying when we wetbulb down, if the wedge does not warm up above 32 when heavier stuff comes in tomorrow evening we have a Sig Ice storm on our hands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even socked in with clouds all day tomorrow , it will slowly warm , with no precip! I might bottom out at 29, but the air and DP will moisten all day on E winds, and precip is not expected until evening, and we get a 33-35 degree flooding rain Only time will tell. I'm already at 29! I probably get to mid 20s before precip moves in and cools down even more. Its gonna take some time to scour that out of here, you can bet on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even socked in with clouds all day tomorrow , it will slowly warm , with no precip! I might bottom out at 29, but the air and DP will moisten all day on E winds, and precip is not expected until evening, and we get a 33-35 degree flooding rain I've not seen to many times when an ENE wind brings moisture in North East GA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think 1-3" northern foothills Sunday evening and 2-4" northern mountains Sunday evening. More tomorrow before it starts turning sparkly with sleet. Double digits possible in the higher elevations from Boone to Jefferson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've not seen to many times when an ENE wind brings moisture in North East GA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Guess we will see tomorrow evening, with 1+ of QPF on the way! If we are at 32 or below, NWS and all forecasts will bust horribly. My ZR advisory is over at 1pm tomorrow , they must know it will warm, the mid Feb sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Guess we will see tomorrow evening, with 1+ of QPF on the way! If we are at 32 or below, NWS and all forecasts will bust horribly. My ZR advisory is over at 1pm tomorrow , they must know it will warm, the mid Feb sun angle! No they are hoping for dear life it does warm, just like wyff!! You can tell by listing to them they are worried its not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow... I just moved to Asheville and thought I would easily fair better with snow then in the Triad. It's unbelievable how much snow dissolves before it reaches the ground. Doesn't look like any precip. will even approach the southern mountains anytime soon. Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Interesting how the radar returns fall apart as they enter Durham County. Been that way for hours. They are not disappearing, it is a function of beam tilt out of the radar sight. As you move out from KRAX, elevation of the radar beam increases due to the curvature of the Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 They are not disappearing, it is a function of beam tilt out of the radar sight. As you move out from KRAX, elevation of the radar beam increases due to the curvature of the Earth. I think Allan just addressed that on @RaleighWx Twitter. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Went from dry to fully saturated. I'm going into the middle teens in my backyard. It's 11 in Boone. Get ready further east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just watched news 4, they showed futurecast radar, and it showed light freezing rain showers around by 7-8 am, then off and on till about 3-5 pm, temp still 31! Heavy band rolls in about 8-9 pm, temps at 34/35! They actually said this could turn in to a very major event, if it doesn't go above freezing! CJ and JC, all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ouch...latest NDFD (composite of NWS office forecasts) really backed off on totals. old new That's not bad actually considering the high uncertainty associated with a mixed precip event. Basically the lower end gradient was tightened up somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just watched news 4, they showed futurecast radar, and it showed light freezing rain showers around by 7-8 am, then off and on till about 3-5 pm, temp still 31! Heavy band rolls in about 8-9 pm, temps at 34/35! They actually said this could turn in to a very major event, if it doesn't go above freezing! CJ and JC, all over it! That's what I was saying them and GSP is hoping for dear life it warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I still have a wet bulb of 17 degrees (24 with a dew point of 3). We have had some light snow on and off since noon. 25 degrees was the highest I have seen it all day and the radar is lighting up to my west. If we can get some heavier precip into this cold air, then look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Cheer up guys Raleigh to Greensboro is next in line based on real time obs with the heavier rates moving east for some light snow accums tonight. Asheville to Charlotte a little murkier picture but their time will come for better rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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