Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[Eastatlwx]

1036 Mb high over Lake Ontario atm. How does that compare to what it was suppose to be?

[superjames1992]

1036 Mb high over Lake Ontario atm. How does that compare to what it was suppose to be?

 

Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis page, the strength is on target compared to the 18z NAM position at hr 3, though it looks like the NAM might be initializing it a little too far east (by 50ish miles).

[FallsLake]

18z NAM not looking good theough 12 hrs. NADA.

TW

CAD not as strong and less qpf across NC for first wave. .

[BIG FROSTY]

Mess, as in ice storm

I'm not sure how to take it? If he's just talking about Va. Piedmont or NC Piedmont also?  Here is what caught my attention the most.

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland,. So I don't think he thinks the low will plow into the wedge, and will slip underneath it and up I95 ????

[franklin NCwx]

Most complicated DT call map ever.

Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware and NYC...

thought his first call map came out 2 days ago?

[WeatherHawk]

Mess, as in ice storm

 

JB afternoon update….

 

 

 

Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM

 

This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday

The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion,

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont .

I think you are on to something here...better that that wxr call map...not buying that one

[superjames1992]

I'm not sure how to take it? If he's just talking about Va. Piedmont or NC Piedmont also?  Here is what caught my attention the most.

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland,. So I don't think he thinks the low will plow into the wedge, and will slip underneath it and up I95 ????

 

The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

 

thought his first call map came out 2 days ago?

 

I think that was his first guess map, haha.  He makes a million of them.

 

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning.  Ew.

[franklin NCwx]

The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

I think that was his first guess map, haha. He makes a million of them.

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning. Ew.

we toss.

[gritsnc]

I hope not because no way we get the amounts forecasted(4-6) just from the moisture to our west still don't see how we are going to get all of it.

I thought moisture was going to be pulled up from the south also. Maybe I misunderstood.

[Regan Raleigh]

Well he is way off on his timimg. So I certainly think that may lead to some errors on his call map.

AGREED! Alan (RaleighWx) just tweeted anything RDU gets prior to 3am will be light and then after 3am a little more until 7-9am when it changed to sleep and freezing rain. I tend to buy Allan's call way over WxRisk. His timing is off.

[BIG FROSTY]

The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

 

 

I think that was his first guess map, haha.  He makes a million of them.

 

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning.  Ew.

I sent him a tweet and ask him was he talking about NC Piedmont also. lol. I'm sure He probably talking about Va. north like u said!! And I'm sure he want respond to me either............. 

[BIG FROSTY]

we toss.

yes we toss, because it's lgt snow here now, and has picked up in the last few minutes.

[BIG FROSTY]

Man it's fine but coming down at a pretty good clip!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[10below]

I'm just not sure what anyone is seeing east of the foothills in terms of accumulation. We shall see but I would be shocked if the triad gets anything in terms of accumulating snow or sleet.

[nchighcountrywx]

Issued By: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg (Western North Carolina and Northwest South Carolina)

Sent: 14:52 EST on 02-14-2016

Effective: 14:52 EST on 02-14-2016

Expires: 19:00 EST on 02-15-2016

Severity: Minor

Urgency: Expected

County Boundary

Target Area:

Cabarrus

Catawba

Cleveland

Davie

Eastern Polk

Gaston

Greater Rutherford

Henderson

Iredell

Lincoln

Mecklenburg

Polk Mountains

Rowan

Rutherford Mountains

Southern Jackson

Transylvania

WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS

AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE

CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE

INTO THIS COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR

INITIALLY IN PLACE TONIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW

THROUGHOUT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING

RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BECOMING ALL RAIN

IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF

SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

7 PM EST MONDAY,

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN, WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER

STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS, THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND

THE PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO, THE MOUNTAINS AND

FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS, A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT,

MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE

TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL

RAIN SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS, SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH, ALONG

WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS, EAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS, ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN

MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES, AROUND 30.

Instructions:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

Target Area:

Cabarrus

Catawba

Cleveland

Davie

Eastern Polk

Gaston

Greater Rutherford

Henderson

Iredell

Lincoln

Mecklenburg

Polk Mountains

Rowan

Rutherford Mountains

Southern Jackson

Transylvania

Forecast Office:

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg (Western North Carolina and Northwest South Carolina)

[PackGrad05]

I fully expect wake to be upgrade to a WWA whenever they do the AFD...between 4 and 5 probably.

[tarheelwx]

I fully expect wake to be upgrade to a WWA whenever they do the AFD...between 4 and 5 probably.

. I think the triad as well. TW

[nchighcountrywx]

Important reminder from Brad Panovich

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

2/14/16, 12:53

Remember research shows "minor" winter events are more deadly on roads than major. Due to more cars on roads & false sense of security.

[nchighcountrywx]

NWS KGSP Advisory and Warning Criteria Explained Here:

http://wxbrad.com/winter-weather-definitions-for-the-charlotte-metro/

[mackerel_sky]

Tried to say this earlier in the week. West to East lows just don't perform well for the GSP area. It takes years of living here to know that.

Freezing rain advisory! Winning

[PackGrad05]

RAH is always the last to get out their AFD and info....

 

I will chalk it up to thoroughly examining every possibility..

[isohume]

RAH is always the last to get out their AFD and info....

 

I will chalk it up to thoroughly examining every possibility..

 

We chalk it up to laziness.

[Jet Stream Rider]

I expect RAH to put me under a WWA on their next update. Wakefield has already put points to my east under one. Calling for an inch tonight and another inch tomorrow before transition.

[Jet Stream Rider]

RAH and Wakefield both show a bit more sleet than I was thinking, figuring it would go more straight to zr. We will see. I hope.

[BIG FROSTY]

Looks like lgt snow tonight, maybe a inch or so, spotty drizzle tomorrow which will allow us to warm, then best moisture tomorrow evening and night is plain rain as we go above freezing..... Just from what I gather from RNK AFD  speaking for my area only.....  #dudagain  lol

 

EDIT: That went more aggressive than I thought they would!

 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE
IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 

[Jet Stream Rider]

3 min ago, my phone just warned me that my county (Halifax) has been put under a WWA. NWS RAH office does not show this. So who issued it? 

 

 

<EDIT>The site updated now, just a few minutes lag.

[Snow haven]

Winter weather advisory just issued here, is this thing coming further south than expected? Yesterday they wrote that it wouldn't be issued unless things trended further south

[packfan98]

Here's RAH

AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE MISS
VALLEY TONIGHT/MON AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS INTO ITS BASE OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY... CULMINATING IN A NARROW DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TAKING ON A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ENE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS/VA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
THE POLAR HIGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC STATES
WILL PUSH STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH
MON... WHILE A COASTAL FRONT FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
EXTENDING BACK TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER E TX AND LA. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST THEN NE... EVOLVING INTO A SUBTLE AND CLOSELY-SPACED
MILLER-B CYCLOGENESIS CONFIGURATION WITH THE SECONDARY LOW TRACKING
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OR WRN PIEDMONT MON NIGHT... BEFORE MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TUE MORNING... AS A FRONT SWEEPS
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE
INITIALLY DEPOSITED PLENTY OF COLD STABLE AIR... THE HIGH ITSELF
WILL BE TRANSITORY AND THE STABLE POOL SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
VULNERABLE TO THE STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE AT 850-900 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT... THE
PROCESSES TO FORCE ASCENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY INCLUDING DPVA
AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ARE RATHER WEAK AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ON WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
WE`VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE RETURNS ON RADAR OVER OUR FAR WRN
COUNTIES... BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO MOISTEN THE INITIALLY
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS... TRIMMING
THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AT THE START. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THE
NW AND VA BORDER SECTIONS WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF. AFTER THE 925-850 MB WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TRANSLATES NNE THROUGH NC LATE TONIGHT WITH SUBSEQUENT
PARTIAL DRYING ALOFT... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA... WITH MORE PATCHY
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE EXTREME
ERN CWA WHERE BETTER MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND-DRIFTING
COASTAL FRONT MAY LEAD TO FOCUSED HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
MON EVENING/NIGHT... STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE (DUE TO IDEALLY
JUXTAPOSED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS) AND VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL STRENGTHEN DEEP
LAYER LIFT... AND WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FROM
WEST TO EAST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.

PTYPES: USING THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY WITH CONSIDERATION OF (A) THE
INITIALLY VERY COLD/DENSE NATURE OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS... (B) THE
STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE ALOFT... AND (C) THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND WARM HYDROMETEORS ALOFT THAT SHOULD DISLODGE/DISSOLVE
THE WEDGE AIR MASS SE TO NW MON AFTERNOON/EVENING... EXPECT THIS TO
START AS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT SLEET TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA... FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION FROM SSE TO
NNW TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THEN TO ALL RAIN... WITH THE FAR NW
COUNTIES INCLUDING THE TRIAD THE LAST TO SEE AN END TO THE WINTRY
PRECIP BY MID EVENING MON. THE LATEST MODEL TIMING AND VERTICAL
THERMAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LONGER-LASTING AND
MORE AREALLY EXPANSIVE ICING THREAT THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. LATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS INDICATE GLAZE ACCRUAL FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL
NC... WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF A TENTH TO HALF INCH AREAWIDE
EXCEPT FOR 1-2" ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO
DURHAM TO LOUISBURG TO SCOTLAND NECK. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE QUICKLY
SWEPT AWAY BY MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING MON
NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC...
LASTING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM MON EXCEPT FROM 7 PM TONIGHT
TO 9 PM MON IN THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE
LONGER LASTING.

PRECIP TOTALS: STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO AROUND
1 1/2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... GIVEN THE HIGH WATER
CONTENT AND STRONG LIFT MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. BASED ON THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WITH SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS RUNNING
HIGH... A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. HOWEVER... A COUPLE OF MODELS INCLUDING
THE GFS ARE HINTING AT ENHANCED RAINFALL NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE... AND IF THIS OCCURS IT
COULD CUT DOWN A BIT ON TOTAL RAINFALL MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

STORM POTENTIAL: WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL (NEARING
6.5 C/KM TUE MAINLY IN THE EAST) WITH WEAK INSTABILITY... THE
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND THE STRONG AND FOCUSED LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION... WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING TUE WHICH COULD
YIELD OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.

TEMPS: EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 22-27. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE MON
THROUGH MON NIGHT... REACHING THE LOW 30S NW TO MID 40S SE LATE
MON... RISING TO NEAR 40 NW TO LOWER 50S SE MON NIGHT... AND PEAKING
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 60S TUE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. -GIH

[superjames1992]

The recent HRRR runs have taken the initially overrunning to the north of the NC/VA border, but fires up another band south of I-40 and builds it northward in the wee hours of the morning tonight.  It's the long-range HRRR, so yeah... but maybe it's something to watch.

 

HRRR'ed.  Always. 

 

[fountainguy97]

The recent HRRR runs have taken the initially overrunning to the north of the NC/VA border, but fires up another band south of I-40 and builds it northward in the wee hours of the morning tonight. It's the long-range HRRR, so yeah... but maybe it's something to watch.

HRRR is still not initializing with the current snowfall in western nc as well.. Good signs for snowlovers