MyBookMonkey Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I would like to hear Lookouts final thoughts!? Same. Looks like FFC is scared to make their final call. Whether to pull down the watches and issue advisories or to issue warnings. Really a no win situation for them, and very hard to forecast. I won't be surprised to see a winter weather advisory for Hall County-Northeast for the potential of morning freezing drizzle. I'll be surprised if they issue a warning at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think an alps runner would ok for us. Perhaps, but for ice every storm I have seen needs to at least be below Macon for my area. (Near Gainesville, GA). With that being said you can tell the wedge is moving in. Stiff E winds and its clouding up. It'll be a close call. Whooooosh!! In other news, the snowfall is very intermittent here. Occasional bursts of small flurries, then nothing for a while. Still very cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just Updated Winter Storm Warning Info From GSP Biggest Change I see is they went up on totals for all the Winter Storm Warned Counties from 2-4 inches to 4-6 inches Including The Foothills also ICE has went up from a tenth of a inch to a Quarter of a inch: Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1134 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINASAND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THECENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTUREINTO THIS COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLD AND DRY AIRINITIALLY IN PLACE TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOWTHROUGHOUT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZINGRAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING ALL RAININ MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW...SLEET...AND ICE MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERNMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-150045-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0004.160214T2300Z-160216T0500Z/AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION1134 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENINGTO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...SNOW...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES... ALONG WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES.* TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE 20S...BUT WARMING ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE...AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/698939114633072640?s=09 Pretty bleak and light for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/698939114633072640?s=09 Pretty bleak and light for sure. I hate that model, It may be good to some of you? but when I've followed it during storms it seems to never get it right here! Do you Guys think it does good? Just wondering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd think worse case scenario for GSP would be to have us under a WWA this afternoon, and could possibly be nothing? I guess you may need a wwa for freezing drizzle, but I'd say 10% chance we go under a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Light snow in Marion, NC temp 24°. Unbelievable honestly I think we're in for a surprise. Overrunning came in alot quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 looking at the radar in tennessee looks like the precip is getting ready to cover all of wnc, like a little more south than had looked earlier, starting to fill in more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks to be moving mostly east. Some of it should clip N NC most will be Va. On north! Unless it builds SE which I doubt. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is what the 4km NAM shows for this evening. Keep in mind much of this would be virga but it gives an idea of how the radar returns will play out. Also the precip is way ahead of schedule no model had virga just south of Raleigh this fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd think worse case scenario for GSP would be to have us under a WWA this afternoon, and could possibly be nothing? I guess you may need a wwa for freezing drizzle, but I'd say 10% chance we go under a warningflood watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 what is so frustrating is we are plenty cold today for snow but can't get the moisture in here and when we do get the moisture it warms up, very very frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 JB afternoon update…. Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion, The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'll take it TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Cloudy, virga. 25.7 currently with dwpt at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Cloudy, virga. 25.7 currently with dwpt at 3. My Dad lives just east of Statesville and he has flurries. So I think if the rates get high enough it's able to saturate quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Isnt there an observation thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is moisture supposed to get pulled up from the south or are we relying on just the moisture to our west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can someone post ffcs afd please? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 26 and dry as a bone here in Denton, NC. I just don't see this moisture getting to the ground east of the foothills. TOO DRY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is moisture supposed to get pulled up from the south or are we relying on just the moisture to our west? I hope not because no way we get the amounts forecasted(4-6) just from the moisture to our west still don't see how we are going to get all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My Dad lives just east of Statesville and he has flurries. So I think if the rates get high enough it's able to saturate quickly. Just saw a few here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 JB afternoon update…. Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion, The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont . Mess, as in ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lgt snow now 23.7/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Most complicated DT call map ever. Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware and NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Completely overcast here at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18z NAM not looking good theough 12 hrs. NADA. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Most complicated DT call map ever. Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware... Aleet Aleet!!! I need a translator, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd think worse case scenario for GSP would be to have us under a WWA this afternoon, and could possibly be nothing? I guess you may need a wwa for freezing drizzle, but I'd say 10% chance we go under a warning Tried to say this earlier in the week. West to East lows just don't perform well for the GSP area. It takes years of living here to know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Most complicated DT call map ever. Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware and NYC... Well he is way off on his timimg. So I certainly think that may lead to some errors on his call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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