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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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Interesting to hear the reports of snow already in the west.

 

I'm so far east, it will a race to see what gets here first, the over running snow flurries or the waa. One thing is that the waa will in all likelihood save this area from widespread zr. I'm worried about those western piedmont and foothills areas though where the CAD will hold out longer and there could be a significant ice storm.

 

I hope all goes well for everyone.

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New Euro low over east TN at 06Z tomorrow night. Huge NAM/CMC/French model etc fail. Maybe I will get some thunder here, at least that would be not as dull as a cool rain....

I have lurked on this board for years, and maybe this is wrong for me to say but why is it you are always so negative on storm chances? While I understand the models are looking warmer, and if we do indeed get an alps runner it will be rain, but I have seen models fail again and again with CAD. Both in winter AND SPRING. This is some bone dry air. Won't this be more of a now casting situation OTP? Are 2005 and 2015 not two good case studies on modeling NOT picking up on the potential a dry cold airmass has? 

 

Again no disrespect intended,just trying to understand.

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When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo.

 

 

Sun still shining bright there? Sun is overhead here at RDU but to the immediate west sky is opaque and solid.

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I have lurked on this board for years, and maybe this is wrong for me to say but why is it you are always so negative on storm chances? While I understand the models are looking warmer, and if we do indeed get an alps runner it will be rain, but I have seen models fail again and again with CAD. Both in winter AND SPRING. This is some bone dry air. Won't this be more of a now casting situation OTP? Are 2005 and 2015 not two good case studies on modeling NOT picking up on the potential a dry cold airmass has?

Again no disrespect intended,just trying to understand.

I think an alps runner would ok for us.
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