CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing. I'm in the "G" section, and yesterday, I was convinced that we would see a substantial winter event. This morning.... just not feeling it as much. Going to be a day of short range model watching and looking at radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also, the HRRR was horrible for Friday's system. It didn't show hardly anything getting into Wake and Wake saw a good amount of snow activity. we had a small batch of flurries move through. it nailed the bulk of the precip that stayed to the s of wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dang dry air: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GSP&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd like to officially issue a BCW for our area. A BCW (Bored Children Watch) is issued whenever there is a high likelihood of children staying home from school for no reason, couped up inside because of cold rain, and driving parents batsh8t crazy. Such a waste of record cold. This winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 we had a small batch of flurries move through. it nailed the bulk of the precip that stayed to the s of wake. I agree, but when I looked at it, it didn't show the showers that went through wake. taken verbatim, wake would've not even seen snow flurries/showers. so looking at HRRR now doesn't need to be taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing.Heartily agree! I have seen many storms bust and those counties, and us here in Saluda NC, stay the course with the CAD. I think that D area needs a thin lobe to extend down into eastern Henderson. I'm actually worried this is a repeat of Feb 2010 when CAD kept Saluda and Flat rock NC just cold enough to jackpot with 8 inch icicles on everything and no power for 4 days. I remember wlos didn't even report on us for 36 hours as they didn't believe that an ice storm could be that localized...Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 One thing I notice right off the bat is that my dew point is -1 degree F right now. That gives me a wet-bulb of 15 degrees! If precip moved in right now the temps would plummet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GSP has me with as much as 4-6 of snow an .25 of ice along the escarpment. They also think freezing temps will hang on longest along the escarpment, not good at all. Very scary situation up here. I trust GSP more than anything, them guys know there stuff. They have me in the same general forecast with a winter storm warning. But from the talks on the forum that I have seen even us here with the warnings will get nothing to very little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd like to officially issue a BCW for our area. A BCW (Bored Children Watch) is issued whenever there is a high likelihood of children staying home from school for no reason, couped up inside because of cold rain, and driving parents batsh8t crazy. Such a waste of record cold. This winter sucks. Eh, I think the roads will be bad regardless of what we get because it has been so cold. Not impressed by how a lot of the modeling is now wanting to focus the overrunning up in S VA. That is our chance at snow... It's going to be mega-frustrating to watch all the overrunning hammering S VA and maybe even the border counties of NC with decent snow whole we twitter out thumbs and hope for flurries. I'll be stubborn and stick with 1-3" SN/IP with 0.1-0.25" ZR, but I'm starting to wonder if I might need to cut that make to T-1". Anyways, it is 22/-3. Not sure we make our forecasted high of 30 today. EDIT: The 12z RGEM and GFS actually look a little better for us than the 6z runs, though. Guess we'll just have to watch the radar and see where the band sets up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 24/-1 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Why, folks are accurately interpreting the model runs and its not good news if you want more than a quick dusting to inch and then a little bit of sleet/zr east of I 77.. We'll see. All we know kw is there is potential. How much we actually get is yet to be determined. A couple of inches of snow and ice would be a big impact on the roads here Monday, and that is the typical storm we usually get here. I don't think it can be dismissed as not a big deal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 HRRR has done really well last two "events" in RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Once again, HRRR does well within 1-3 hours of the event. But looking at it this far out, it did horrible. Go back and look. So taking it verbatim right now is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Keeps it simple, about all we need to know on chances of winter storm criteria. Get back outside and enjoy the snow there is on the ground today before the rain washes it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 FYI that's the 4" snowand .25" ice maps. Those are the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 8" forecasted here (not too far from the 8-12" zone) with about 0.10" of ice on top of that. Fun stuff. Best thing about this is it won't be around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Radar returns (virga) coming in several hours ahead of model projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpg2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Kids are out of school tomorrow anyhow. It's Presidents Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Kids are out of school tomorrow anyhow. It's Presidents Day. Not here. It's a make up day for one of the days we missed during the sleet storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've noted folks lamenting school schedules tomorrow. Don't kids get off for President's Day anymore? Not that it really matters down here, with a smattering of ice likely, but I remember my young'un getting the day off back in the day. ...and soon as I post, I see Nic has the answer. Many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm getting reports via FB that the snow falling in SW VA on radar IS reaching the ground. Already a dusting out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Kids are out of school tomorrow anyhow. It's Presidents Day. kind of a silly day to take the day off imo. I think presidents would want kids to be in school. So I think the best way to honor presidents would be to go to school ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm getting reports via FB that the snow falling in SW VA on radar IS reaching the ground. Already a dusting out that way. When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Video Update From Brad P. : Just a side note for everyone under a Winter Storm Warning right now everything is still on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo. Not until 3-4pm out that way per NWS Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 23 degrees at noon today, what a waste of cold. I'm going to hold firmly to the NAM straw that gives me snow from 7pm today to late morning tomorrow before changing over to rain. Yeah, like that is going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like much later precip onset ATL into NE GA lets temps & DP's get on up there, Greenville, SC and NE still possible for light icing. Rain washes it away. Waste of cold air.. Maybe around last week of the month for next opportunity, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've noted folks lamenting school schedules tomorrow. Don't kids get off for President's Day anymore? Not that it really matters down here, with a smattering of ice likely, but I remember my young'un getting the day off back in the day. ...and soon as I post, I see Nic has the answer. Many thanks! it is a makeup day for couple days missed last storm. I am in K'dale and we got a lot of ice, without power 2 days. Surprised my kids are still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like much later precip onset ATL into NE GA lets temps & DP's get on up there, Greenville, SC and NE still possible for light icing. Rain washes it away. Waste of cold air.. Maybe around last week of the month for next opportunity, waste of cold air in the Carolinas maybe. I'm at 44 degrees and may reach 50 today. No cold air around here ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 waste of cold air in the Carolinas maybe. I'm at 44 degrees and may reach 50 today. No cold air around here ! Whatever you do stay put. Dont chase anywhere, not even the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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