FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard for me to see the maps(on a crappy Netbook). But it did look a little colder on the 12z NAM. As other have said the precip did move north some, but RDU westward still looks to get .25 or greater qpf with temps at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Timing alone will make the schools pull the plug. All we need is a "threat"...the dusting in the AM will scare them enough, most work offices will close as well is my guess. I mostly have to agree. Wcpss has pushed heir limits quite a bit over the years and made some bad calls. They will already be feeling the pressure because Monday was to be a make-up day already. They didn't cancel Friday over "dusting", but this is different in that there's more widespread ice expected---timing wise. My husband works at NCSU and they seems to think everyone lives on campus. Anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My call for mby is, 1/10 inch of ice accrual on trees and roads possibly, with freezing drizzle until noon or so, then all rain! Next! All in for Feb 24th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard for me to see the maps(on a crappy Netbook). But it did look a little colder on the 12z NAM. As other have said the precip did move north some, but RDU westward still looks to get .25 or greater qpf with temps at or below freezing. Thats about right, .10 as snow the test ip/zr so call it 1" snow .10" IP/ZR at best. this is the story of my winter right here this is the latest NAM Cobb for PGV 160215/1300Z 31 05007KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.05 0| 0|100 160215/1400Z 32 04006KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.04|| 0.06 0| 0|100 160215/1500Z 33 36004KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.07 0| 0|100 160215/1600Z 34 34005KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.08 0| 0|100 160215/1700Z 35 34005KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.09 0| 0|100 160215/1800Z 36 35005KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.10 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160215/1900Z 37 30003KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.16 0| 0|100 160215/2000Z 38 30005KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.25 0| 0|100 160215/2100Z 39 01003KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.31 0| 0|100 160215/2200Z 40 05004KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.32 0| 0|100 160215/2300Z 41 VRB02KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.46 0| 0|100 160216/0000Z 42 09004KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.49 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Why, folks are accurately interpreting the model runs and its not good news if you want more than a quick dusting to inch and then a little bit of sleet/zr east of I 77..when folks in Ohio and Pittsburgh are talking about rain you know it's time to close the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 when folks in Ohio and Pittsburgh are talking about rain you know it's time to close the blinds.[/quote Not unusual to have rain there while there's ice in CAD areas. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This was the 6z NAM sounding for RDU ---- That is some bone dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This was the 6z NAM sounding for RDU ---- That is some bone dry air. Yep and when you're seeing 0.02-0.04" hourly QPF all snow with rates 4-6:1, hard to think we'll see more than 0.5" at RDU. Unless you don't believe modeling and think the CAD will hold when more precip arrives, 1"+ seems out of reach especially with IP cutting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My weather station is saying 19 F with dew point of -8F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not only is it time for I-85 folks to consider that when the main body of precip moves through it will be all rain, but also that the so-called front end thump may be just a whimper. 12z NAM drops a paltry .03 of frozen precip on Shelby EHO before 2ms go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My call for mby is, 1/10 inch of ice accrual on trees and roads possibly, with freezing drizzle until noon or so, then all rain! Next! All in for Feb 24th!Radar showing another storm for the 24th?Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Radar doesn't go out 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Radar showing another storm for the 24th? Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not only is it time for I-85 folks to consider that when the main body of precip moves through it will be all rain, but also that the so-called front end thump may be just a whimper. 12z NAM drops a paltry .03 of frozen precip on Shelby EHO before 2ms go above freezing. I'll be looking for the whites of their eyes. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem looks good for central nc Monday if you like sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 @LoznickaCBS46 3m3 minutes ago Atlanta should be expecting an UPGRADE to a Winter Weather Advisory for early Monday morning for freezing rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 @LoznickaCBS46 3m3 minutes ago Atlanta should be expecting an UPGRADE to a Winter Weather Advisory for early Monday morning for freezing rain and sleet. I would say going from nothing to an advisory would be an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So the Euro has regained its crown- when it became consistent on the warmer farther north solution it was hard to beat. Also, if the short wave is strong enough, and the surface HP is off the coast and retreating, than yes, LP *can* move right into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not only is it time for I-85 folks to consider that when the main body of precip moves through it will be all rain, but also that the so-called front end thump may be just a whimper. 12z NAM drops a paltry .03 of frozen precip on Shelby EHO before 2ms go above freezing.We get it! For 2-3 days, we knew we would need heavier precip to lock in the in -situ damming, and hold temps down ! No heavy precip , means no frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RAH at 9:55AM THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING STORM STILL LOOKS ONTRACK... AND WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR AS SOON AS LATEAFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING... THESE HYDROMETEORS WILL INITIALLY BEFIGHTING DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND THUS THE FORECASTED ONSET OFMEASURABLE PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING WINTERWEATHER ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON... AND PERHAPS A WINTER STORMWARNING IN THE FAR NW... AFTER A THOROUGH ASSESSMENT OF MORNINGMODEL RUNS. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So the Euro has regained its crown- when it became consistent on the warmer farther north solution it was hard to beat. Also, if the short wave is strong enough, and the surface HP is off the coast and retreating, than yes, LP *can* move right into the cold air. The temps were way off. Waaaaaay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 no way wake sees an inch of snow. all the short range models show initial precip to our north and by the time it reaches us it will likely be a sloppy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The temps were way off. Waaaaaay off. I realize that. But people here were hugging the other models as far as the position of the surface low. The Euro at this range has difficulty with things like temps, especially in a CAD setup, but is still better (when consistent) with the synoptic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 latest hrrr thru midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I realize that. But people here were hugging the other models as far as the position of the surface low. The Euro at this range has difficulty with things like temps, especially in a CAD setup, but is still better (when consistent) with the synoptic features. Yep, Euro ultimately won out on the 5h trough and surface low placement, big surprise. lol I actually looked at a 120 hr prog from 4 days ago and it's about identical at 5h to what it is showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well for what ever it's worth, the 12z GFS did come in a little higher in qpf for northern NC for the first wave (to hour 27). Looks like .25 or greater along the NC Vir boarder. Then the greater than .1 runs through the center of NC northward. Laughable but it is higher than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GSP has me with as much as 4-6 of snow an .25 of ice along the escarpment. They also think freezing temps will hang on longest along the escarpment, not good at all. Very scary situation up here. I trust GSP more than anything, them guys know there stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Also, the HRRR was horrible for Friday's system. It didn't show hardly anything getting into Wake and Wake saw a good amount of snow activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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