Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

You are under the same winter storm warning I'm under correct? Seen Greater McDowell,along with Greater Burke and Greater Caldwell reason I asked.

Yes I believe so

[mackerel_sky]

What's the other place saying? Hopefully somebody is awake.

Most on here won't have a date, soooo, it's not that !

[MillerA]

Time Warner call map:

Check out @Wx1sCLT's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wx1sCLT/status/698859379026571265?s=09

[burrel2]

Here's how I see things right now.

 

It looks like the initial overrunning band has trended North a little. If I was in Northern NC I wouldn't count on much from this. Also, models are trending faster with the warm-nose up that way. I think the most say greensboro or winston-salem will get is an inch or so of snow before going to sleet/freezing rain. (Wouldn't be surprised if they only get a dusting of snow to start)

 

The Northern Mountains will probably do ok with the initial band, maybe 2 to 4 inches.

 

Monday morning, it appears like most everyone on the board will be cold enough for freezing rain and sleet. There should be widespread light precipitation associated with the isentropic lift over the wedge. Places like Columbia, Greenville, Charlotte, Raleigh, (maybe atlanta if any precip falls), etc.. should get enough measurable freezing rain from this to cause bad problems on the roadways with temps in the mid 20's to around 30.  I doubt any of this accumulates enough for power outages though. Maybe 1/10th inch at most.

 

By lunch time monday, the western and southern edges of the CAD starts to erode warming those area's above freezing.(raleigh, columbia, atlanta, maybe charlotte). Precip looks to be at a minimum during this time as well.

 

The X factor will be Monday afternoon, as the upstate, northeast georgia, and western piedmont of NC may still be in the 30 to 32 range. If some gulf precip is streaming in by this time it will start adding up(this is what the rgem shows). Other models are slower with gulf precip, so we'll see.

 

Monday night, most of the hi-res models are still showing 31/32/33 for an area centered from athens through GSP up to Greensboro when the heavy band of precip moves in. It's hard to say how much ice accumulates with this band, it could be devastating or mainly just a 32 degree cold rain.  IMO, this is the hardest part of the storm to predict and it will come down to now casting tomorrow afternoon.  I lean towards just rain considering how heavy the precip will be and the fact the globals are much warmer for this round, but if wedge temperatures are just a degree or two slower to erode than what the hi-res models are showing, it could get bad. I would also add that with last years ice storm in georgia, the hi-res models were 4 to 5 degree's too warm with eroding the CAD over northeast georgia the day before the event.

 

FFC will have there hands full with this one. As of right now I'd give a place like gainesville a 50% chance of little to no ice, and a 50% chance that they get damaging freezing over 1/4 inch. We'll see....

[mackerel_sky]

26/3! If clouds hold on thick , probably get up to about 32 or so? Finally have cold, but precip lags , until we warm up! Radar looks pretty lax, some models had precip over NC by afternoon , don't see that happening, not even virga!

[FLweather]

Starting to see some of the the TV mets such as WRAL and RaleighWx talking about up to 2in snow/sleet (and some people say 1- 3in) for Wake/RDU. It's weird though, if I see correctly, the NWS RAH is still saying 1in or less of their briefing. Always interesting to see the TV go against the NWS for the greater amounts instead of lesser.

This all being said, Monday night this won't matter.

Well with these type of systems usually the front end snow thump is the hardiest to predict. But the front end is usually has the greatest moisture assoicated with the system before Warm Front aloft moves through.

[Cold Rain]

More talk about severe and Tstorms in the last few posts in the wintry thread, so that's telling, lol

Lol figures!

[RubiksDestroyer]

26/3! If clouds hold on thick , probably get up to about 32 or so? Finally have cold, but precip lags , until we warm up! Radar looks pretty lax, some models had precip over NC by afternoon , don't see that happening, not even virga!

 

What are you talking about? Some light precipitation (virga) crossing the NC/TN border:

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php

[mackerel_sky]

Here's how I see things right now.

It looks like the initial overrunning band has trended North a little. If I was in Northern NC I wouldn't count on much from this. Also, models are trending faster with the warm-nose up that way. I think the most say greensboro or winston-salem will get is an inch or so of snow before going to sleet/freezing rain. (Wouldn't be surprised if they only get a dusting of snow to start)

The Northern Mountains will probably do ok with the initial band, maybe 2 to 4 inches.

Monday morning, it appears like most everyone on the board will be cold enough for freezing rain and sleet. There should be widespread light precipitation associated with the isentropic lift over the wedge. Places like Columbia, Greenville, Charlotte, Raleigh, (maybe atlanta if any precip falls), etc.. should get enough measurable freezing rain from this to cause bad problems on the roadways with temps in the mid 20's to around 30. I doubt any of this accumulates enough for power outages though. Maybe 1/10th inch at most.

By lunch time monday, the western and southern edges of the CAD starts to erode warming those area's above freezing.(raleigh, columbia, atlanta, maybe charlotte). Precip looks to be at a minimum during this time as well.

The X factor will be Monday afternoon, as the upstate, northeast georgia, and western piedmont of NC may still be in the 30 to 32 range. If some gulf precip is streaming in by this time it will start adding up(this is what the rgem shows). Other models are slower with gulf precip, so we'll see.

Monday night, most of the hi-res models are still showing 31/32/33 for an area centered from athens through GSP up to Greensboro when the heavy band of precip moves in. It's hard to say how much ice accumulates with this band, it could be devastating or mainly just a 32 degree cold rain. IMO, this is the hardest part of the storm to predict and it will come down to now casting tomorrow afternoon. I lean towards just rain considering how heavy the precip will be, but if wedge temperature are just a degree or two slower to erode than what the hi-res models are showing, it could get bad. I would also add that with last years ice storm in georgia, the hi-res models were 4 to 5 degree's too warm with eroding the CAD over northeast georgia the day before the event.

FFC will have there hands full with this one. As of right now I'd give a place like gainesville a 50% chance of little to no ice, and a 50% chance that they get damaging freezing over 1/4 inch. We'll see....

I agree with this! Winds are still pretty gusty out of the NE, and it's super dry! The drizzle and very light precip , won't get the full wet bulb potential , but if it's off a few degrees as you mentioned and we are 30 or so , when the heavy stuff gets here, it could get bad, atleast for trees and powerlines!

But if it's 32/33 and the rain is heavy, it won't accumulate anyway . But I can see me being 33/34 when heavy stuff gets to me, a few miles can mean huge differences!

[wxduncan]

Here's how I see things right now.

 

It looks like the initial overrunning band has trended North a little. If I was in Northern NC I wouldn't count on much from this. Also, models are trending faster with the warm-nose up that way. I think the most say greensboro or winston-salem will get is an inch or so of snow before going to sleet/freezing rain. (Wouldn't be surprised if they only get a dusting of snow to start)

 

The Northern Mountains will probably do ok with the initial band, maybe 2 to 4 inches.

 

Monday morning, it appears like most everyone on the board will be cold enough for freezing rain and sleet. There should be widespread light precipitation associated with the isentropic lift over the wedge. Places like Columbia, Greenville, Charlotte, Raleigh, (maybe atlanta if any precip falls), etc.. should get enough measurable freezing rain from this to cause bad problems on the roadways with temps in the mid 20's to around 30.  I doubt any of this accumulates enough for power outages though. Maybe 1/10th inch at most.

 

By lunch time monday, the western and southern edges of the CAD starts to erode warming those area's above freezing.(raleigh, columbia, atlanta, maybe charlotte). Precip looks to be at a minimum during this time as well.

 

The X factor will be Monday afternoon, as the upstate, northeast georgia, and western piedmont of NC may still be in the 30 to 32 range. If some gulf precip is streaming in by this time it will start adding up(this is what the rgem shows). Other models are slower with gulf precip, so we'll see.

 

Monday night, most of the hi-res models are still showing 31/32/33 for an area centered from athens through GSP up to Greensboro when the heavy band of precip moves in. It's hard to say how much ice accumulates with this band, it could be devastating or mainly just a 32 degree cold rain.  IMO, this is the hardest part of the storm to predict and it will come down to now casting tomorrow afternoon.  I lean towards just rain considering how heavy the precip will be and the fact the globals are much warmer for this round, but if wedge temperatures are just a degree or two slower to erode than what the hi-res models are showing, it could get bad. I would also add that with last years ice storm in georgia, the hi-res models were 4 to 5 degree's too warm with eroding the CAD over northeast georgia the day before the event.

 

FFC will have there hands full with this one. As of right now I'd give a place like gainesville a 50% chance of little to no ice, and a 50% chance that they get damaging freezing over 1/4 inch. We'll see....

 

There calling for 2-4 inches here with locally higher amounts also half to possibly a inch of sleet. Then up to a quarter inch of ice. Just north of I-40 in Burke under Winter Storm Warning hope they are right.

[downeastnc]

I would guess maybe advisory criteria for the Triangle, especially eastern areas, before a flip to rain. I noticed there wasn't much discussion of the 6z models. That tells me something right there.

 

The Nam is actually a close call got PGV ice wise, we stay below freezing until around noon tomorrow and only show like .10" QPF or less up till then, we then wet bulb out and the NAM sticks us a 33 and rain for the next 3 frames with .40" of QPF......on the Nam RDU is in a bit of a dry slot until later I guess and only gets .20" in that time frame on the Nam....the next couple of frames sees a big jump in RDU's qpf though and the temp is 33 again its so close and 1-2 degrees colder and this is a big problem. The upside is no matter what it looks like late overnight on Monday into Tues it warms up a lot and it will all be gone. 

[wake4est]

Light precip amounts with spotty radars in these parts usually mean sadness. A dusting with a tiny glaze is all I would expect in Wake County.

[Regan Raleigh]

Time Warner call map:

Check out @Wx1sCLT's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wx1sCLT/status/698859379026571265?s=09

That's pretty shifted north from what I'm seeing this morning. Seeing up to 2in so far for the RDU.

[Regan Raleigh]

Light precip amounts with spotty radars in these parts usually mean sadness. A dusting with a tiny glaze is all I would expect in Wake County.

I was a actually surprised to see TV (Wral) go higher than this this morning. Saying up to 2in. They were going against NWS for the greater.

[packfan98]

12z nam has shifted all of the overrunning precip into VA. Looks like no snow to start. Light amounts show up once the 850's warm.

[5statewx]

Essentially no moisture gets into RDU until after 850s warm. 

[wake4est]

I was a actually surprised to see TV (Wral) go higher than this this morning. Saying up to 2in. They were going against NWS for the greater.

At this point we'll be lucky to see any snow at all. Look at how the storm is developing and what the models have started showing over tv.

[Cold Rain]

The Nam is actually a close call got PGV ice wise, we stay below freezing until around noon tomorrow and only show like .10" QPF or less up till then, we then wet bulb out and the NAM sticks us a 33 and rain for the next 3 frames with .40" of QPF......on the Nam RDU is in a bit of a dry slot until later I guess and only gets .20" in that time frame on the Nam....the next couple of frames sees a big jump in RDU's qpf though and the temp is 33 again its so close and 1-2 degrees colder and this is a big problem. The upside is no matter what it looks like late overnight on Monday into Tues it warms up a lot and it will all be gone.

Yeah man, that's pretty classic. Those initial bands or fingers of precip usually translate north toward/into VA and usually leave me disappointed around here. If that doesn't produce, we won't get much more than a cold rain here.

[calculus1]

12z nam has shifted all of the overrunning precip into VA. Looks like no snow to start. Light amounts show up once the 850's warm.

I disagree. Both pivotal and tropical weather sites show decent simulated radar returns for 12 hours out over the northern half of NC. On phone, so can't post maps, though.

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[PackGrad05]

Dusting at most for wake is my call.  Just not seeing it.  Wake is either too far west or too far east.  Never in the sweet spot save for every 3-4 years. 

 

And who is on WRAL this morning?  Fishel and Maze are off this weekend, unless they were called in.

[5statewx]

I disagree. Both pivotal and tropical weather sites show decent simulated radar returns for 12 hours out over the northern half of NC. On phone, so can't post maps, though.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

That's essentially all evaporating before it reaches the ground. 

[Regan Raleigh]

Dusting at most for wake is my call. Just not seeing it. Wake is either too far west or too far east. Never in the sweet spot save for every 3-4 years.

And who is on WRAL this morning? Fishel and Maze are off this weekend, unless they were called in.

Skinny dude with the glasses. RaleighWx just updated his map about an hour ago. Maybe it'll hold. Regardless, I say schools etc pull the plug anyway. Still ice for majority of the day.

[wake4est]

Dusting at most for wake is my call. Just not seeing it. Wake is either too far west or too far east. Never in the sweet spot save for every 3-4 years.

And who is on WRAL this morning? Fishel and Maze are off this weekend, unless they were called in.

Moss

[Jon]

Dusting at most for wake is my call.  Just not seeing it.  Wake is either too far west or too far east.  Never in the sweet spot save for every 3-4 years. 

 

And who is on WRAL this morning?  Fishel and Maze are off this weekend, unless they were called in.

Agree more or less. Not seeing how anyone, nws, news, etc. is seeing 2" for Wake from this storm (even at RDU).

 

My call would be <=0.5" snow, IP/ZR will move in quickly, not to mention it's snow at onset so any dry air will be virga until it can get going through the column. I could see a decently greater ZR threat over wake although forecasts aren't really calling for it. Possibly 0.3" ZR. The high snow totals don't make sense here, make more since Durham county and NW.

[Regan Raleigh]

I don't doubt Holly and Willow Springs see the lesser accumulation. They were saying the northern half may see more. Gradiated south to north. Still sleet and freezing rain will win over in accum.

[easternnc]

[Jon]

Skinny dude with the glasses. RaleighWx just updated his map about an hour ago. Maybe it'll hold. Regardless, I say schools etc pull the plug anyway. Still ice for majority of the day.

Timing alone will make the schools pull the plug. All we need is a "threat"...the dusting in the AM will scare them enough, most work offices will close as well is my guess.

[PackGrad05]

I agree.  There will be a strong gradient across wake, like always.

 

I am worried about freezing rain down here in southern wake, like jon mentioned.   Last time, I was out of power for 40 hours.  i do NOT want that again.

[marino13882]

Dusting at most for wake is my call. Just not seeing it. Wake is either too far west or too far east. Never in the sweet spot save for every 3-4 years.

And who is on WRAL this morning? Fishel and Maze are off this weekend, unless they were called in.

Mike Moss is there in the morning, then Aimee comes in the afternoon

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[downeastnc]

Sounds like some folks need to be in the cliff jumpers thread.

 

Why, folks are accurately interpreting the model runs and its  not good news if you want more than a quick dusting to inch and then a little bit of sleet/zr east of I 77..