Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[BIG FROSTY]

Hate I have to flip on full version on this phone to quote.

Anyway big frosty we are under 24 hrs now from start time, it'll go from watching short term models to nowcast radar/obs by the time altar calls are made tomorrow. Hope the overuNing can get in here quick and lock in. Some posters if not alot will be posting snow obs this time tommorow knock on wood.

Gotcha! It still amazes me that some of the models still plow LP straight into that strong of a CAD?  

[mackerel_sky]

I won't be up to see how the EURO behaves with the new recon data...but after seeing what it did to the CMC...and where the GFS went...I think it will be sorta close to the GFS...and I would put all my apples with the future 0z EURO for the most likely outcome for now. Night.

Take a peek at UKmet, before counting sheep! South trend, FTW

[Shawn]

High is still off the coast on both, but it is a 1040, so stronger than most models!?

 

From previous modeling, the High gets stronger after it leaves the prime CAD spot off the coast.  In fact, 1050MB has been on modeling as it goes away.  There is going to be around 1032-1035 (max) in the good position over the NE.  imo

[BIG FROSTY]

Take a peek at UKmet, before counting sheep! South trend, FTW

It still comes north right thru the Piedmont..... need it cutting up the coastal plain!

[BIG FROSTY]

[Bsudweather]

I think this could be inline for the Upstate as well. Different timeframe but I'm talking total wise.

[mackerel_sky]

I think this could be inline for the Upstate as well. Different timeframe but I'm talking total wise.

If we only get drizzle all day monday, I could see us getting to 33/34 as the heavy batch moves in

[Bsudweather]

If we only get drizzle all day monday, I could see us getting to 33/34 as the heavy batch moves in

Not if models are underdoing the CAD. Plus I think we get more precip than drizzle. Another thing drizzle will accumulate more than heavier precip so even freezing drizzle or light rain could get ugly

[superjames1992]

The 00z Euro is colder.  The I-85 corridor holds on to sub-freezing temperatures about six hours longer compared to the 12z run.  It changes places like Shelby and GSO over to rain somewhere around 00z Tuesday (so, Monday evening).

 

It's not as cold as the NAM/RGEM as it only bottoms out a lot of places in the mid-20s as opposed to the low-20s, but it is colder than prior runs.  I know Larry used to say the Euro is a little warm-biased at 2m in CAD events, so it could just be that.  Not sure.  As is, it's a warning-criteria event for the CAD areas in the foothills and NW Piedmont.

[lilj4425]

The 00z Euro is colder. The I-85 corridor holds on to sub-freezing temperatures about six hours longer compared to the 12z run. It changes places like Shelby and GSO over to rain somewhere around 00z Tuesday (so, Monday evening).

So Euro goes colder and CMC goes warmer? I give up. I'm going to have a beer or three.

[Bsudweather]

The 00z Euro is colder. The I-85 corridor holds on to sub-freezing temperatures about six hours longer compared to the 12z run. It changes places like Shelby and GSO over to rain somewhere around 00z Tuesday (so, Monday evening).

So we now have most models trending colder. CMC was a tick warmer, not sure about the rest of them. If this is a trend it could spell trouble for lots of areas!

[wxduncan]

The 00z Euro is colder.  The I-85 corridor holds on to sub-freezing temperatures about six hours longer compared to the 12z run.  It changes places like Shelby and GSO over to rain somewhere around 00z Tuesday (so, Monday evening).

 

It's not as cold as the NAM/RGEM as it only bottoms out a lot of places in the mid-20s as opposed to the low-20s, but it is colder than prior runs.  I know Larry used to say the Euro is a little warm-biased at 2m in CAD events, so it could just be that.  Not sure.  As is, it's a warning-criteria event for the CAD areas in the foothills and NW Piedmont.

So I assume if it holds I-85 to sub-freezing temps about six hours longer then the 12z run. What does it do for I-40 area(amounts/temps,etc)? Also did it go south like the UKMet?

[superjames1992]

The Euro bottoms out the Triad in the mid-20s, RDU and CLT in the upper 20s, and GSP in the 29-30 degree range, by the way. Boone and up towards Roanoke are around 20-21.

The Euro is around a 0.4-0.5" QPF wintry event before the changeover for the foothills and NW Piedmont, taken as shown. NW SC is a bit less (0.1-0.2"ish).

The Euro still cuts up to Bluefield, WV and then over to Charlottesville, VA with the low pressure. EDIT: Nevermind, the primary tracks over the NC Piedmont.

[BIG FROSTY]

The 00z Euro is colder.  The I-85 corridor holds on to sub-freezing temperatures about six hours longer compared to the 12z run.  It changes places like Shelby and GSO over to rain somewhere around 00z Tuesday (so, Monday evening).

 

It's not as cold as the NAM/RGEM as it only bottoms out a lot of places in the mid-20s as opposed to the low-20s, but it is colder than prior runs.  I know Larry used to say the Euro is a little warm-biased at 2m in CAD events, so it could just be that.  Not sure.  As is, it's a warning-criteria event for the CAD areas in the foothills and NW Piedmont.

What time does it bring the precip in? 

[btownheel]

If guidance is trending colder/longer with the CAD then the possibility of that Low actually driving into the teeth of that wedge gets more and more remote IMO.  We've seen this several times over the last few years, and they either get bumped into the 95 corridor or go full Miller B and cut/transfer to coastal...

[superjames1992]

What time does it bring the precip in? 

 

It's a little slower than most of the other models, I think.  Around 00z-06z on Monday morning, or late Sunday night close to or around midnight.  Maybe closer to 7 PM out your way.  Of course, there would be virga arriving earlier than that.

[Bsudweather]

Any chance this could turn into a full blown sleet fest? I haven't looked at thermal profiles its hard to do on my phone.

[Shawn]

Well that's good news for me if anyone has some snow/ice total maps that are public would love to see them.

 

The detailed ECMWF products are along the lines of $250,000 (yes, 1/4 million) for the license.  Really not any public sources that are legal to share.  It's becoming common for providers to go after websites sharing them for free habitually.  Other sites allowing hotlinks to them are about to get nailed.

[wxduncan]

The detailed ECMWF products are along the lines of $250,000 (yes, 1/4 million) for the license.  Really not any public sources that are legal to share.

I will just sign up for WXBell again no big deal here for $20.00

And I know about the rules for the EURO just thought I would ask but I went ahead and got a monthly sub for the time being from WXBell.

[BIG FROSTY]

Hey Brandon,  HKY_WX  what's your call? I see you lurking! You going to make a call map? 

[John1122]

 

The Euro still cuts up to Bluefield, WV and then over to Charlottesville, VA with the low pressure.

 

I didn't see that at all. Looks to me like it runs it under the Apps and almost due East from Northern Alabama. At 60 it's 50-100 miles East of Charlotte and at 66 it's off the coast of Virginia.

[superjames1992]

I didn't see that at all. Looks to me like it runs it under the Apps and almost due East from Northern Alabama. At 60 it's 50-100 miles East of Charlotte and at 66 it's off the coast of Virginia.

Oops, you're right. Looks like there's a secondary low up in WV that was distracting me, but you're right. A bit of a difference from the 12z run, then. Gotta love how the Euro shoots RDU up to 48 from 28 in a mere 12 hours. Seems overdone in that regard.

The Euro brings NAM-levels of precip to play with the main band. There'd be some flooding issues, I think.

[superjames1992]

One thing I will bring up with regards to the 00z Euro which I am not sure really matters at this juncture, but it is really blowing surface temperatures right now.  It bottoms MBY out at 18-19 tonight and it's already 16 and most modeling puts us close to 10 by daybreak.  That's a pretty big difference and it makes you wonder if it's missing out on the depth of the cold layer at the surface.  It also only has CLT getting down to 23, GSP to 25, RDU to 21, ATL to 26, etc.  Maybe it'll be right, but I tend to doubt it.  Now, that may not have much of an effect down the road tomorrow evening, but I thought I would bring it up.

 

 

Appreciate it Rick James! #SuperFreak  

 

I finally finished the lit review I was working on.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

One thing I will bring up with regards to the 00z Euro which I am not sure really matters at this juncture, but it is really blowing surface temperatures right now. It bottoms MBY out at 18-19 tonight and it's already 16 and most modeling puts us close to 10 by daybreak. That's a pretty big difference and it makes you wonder if it's missing out on the depth of the cold layer at the surface. It also only has CLT getting down to 23, GSP to 25, RDU to 21, ATL to 26, etc. Maybe it'll be right, but I tend to doubt it.

16/4 here right now James.

[John1122]

One thing I will bring up with regards to the 00z Euro which I am not sure really matters at this juncture, but it is really blowing surface temperatures right now.  It bottoms MBY out at 18-19 tonight and it's already 16 and most modeling puts us close to 10 by daybreak.  That's a pretty big difference and it makes you wonder if it's missing out on the depth of the cold layer at the surface.  It also only has CLT getting down to 23, GSP to 25, RDU to 21, ATL to 26, etc.  Maybe it'll be right, but I tend to doubt it.  Now, that may not have much of an effect down the road tomorrow evening, but I thought I would bring it up.

 

 

 

 

I finally finished the lit review I was working on.

 

On this side of the Apps, our local NWS WFO is not using the Euro temps, says they are too warm. JB said the same thing a day or two ago, says you won't see places rise from the 20s to near 50 with high rates of precip falling.

[LiQuiDBuD]

11/2 here FWIW.

[Shawn]

Columbia WFO has this tidbit to say for the area.. not something you want to see if you're a NAM fan:

 

 

 

THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE  
AREA MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH  
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT IS INDICATED. THE MODELS  
HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE  
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE QPF AROUND 0.01 OF AN INCH MONDAY  
MORNING...AND 0.01 TO 0.1 OF AN INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OF  
FREEZING RAIN EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART. THE FREEZING  
RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTHWARD. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE  
TIMING. THE NAM WAS SLOWER ERODING THE COLDEST AIR AND MAY BE  
CORRECT BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A COLD  
BIAS OF LATE. BASED ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE QPF AND  
EXPECTED SHALLOW MOISTURE WE HAVE NOT POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH  
BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF 0.25 OF AN INCH OF ICE WAS TOO LOW.  
HOWEVER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.  
 

[wxduncan]

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC430 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINASAND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THECENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTUREINTO THIS COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLD AND DRY AIRINITIALLY IN PLACE TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOWTHROUGHOUT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZINGRAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING ALL RAININ MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW...SLEET...AND ICE MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERNMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.NCZ501>506-141800-/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.160215T0000Z-160216T0000Z//O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0004.160214T2300Z-160216T0500Z/CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION430 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TOMIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT ESTMONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE IN THE  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.* HAZARDS...SNOW...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND  FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH  MONDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET  MIDDAY MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY  EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FREEZING ABOVE  LATE MONDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES  ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES NEARER THE HIGHER  TERRAIN. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH ONE HALF TO ONE  INCH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF  FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.* WINDS...EAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT THE HIGHER  ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL  RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES.* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 20S BUT RISING ABOVE FREEZING  MONDAY EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE...AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CANBE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$

[wxduncan]

From GSP:

 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVER PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD
WEDGE LAYER RETREATS...A WARM NOSE INVADES FROM THE SOUTH...AND WARM
AND MOIST AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WITH THE ADVANCING LOW. THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT FROM EXPECTED SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN TO UPGRADE THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO
A WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SNOW/ICE
FORECASTS GENERALLY BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA AT PRESENT...BUT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WATCH WILL THUS BE RETAINED IN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARNING. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SECTIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

THE SALIENT FEATURES REMAIN A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH DEEPENING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...WHILE COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE STEADILY IMPROVES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE WEDGE
LAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL PERMIT A WARM NOSE TO BLOSSOM AND SURGE
NORTHWARD...BUT PROBABLY SLOWER THAN PROGGED GIVEN THE COLD AND DRY
AIRMASS BEING DISPLACED. WILL THUS ALLOW MORE OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO BE REALIZED AS
FREEZING/FROZEN TYPES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA. IN
FACT...SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES COULD WELL GET LOCKED IN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER SINCE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS MONDAY EVENING.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW TRACK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOCUSING HEAVIER QPF ON
WESTERN MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. FORTUNATELY...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST FORCING OF THE EVENT WILL THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
ONCE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN IN
MOST AREAS. ANY BAND OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE
MUCH SHORTER DURATION AS WELL WITHOUT ANY CLOSING OFF OF THE PASSING
LOW. A POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS SHUNTED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SE TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THE BETTER QPF...HYDRO PROBLEMS APPEAR A BIT LESS
LIKELY...BUT STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER MOUNTAIN AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILL SECTIONS WHERE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH 1.5 INCHES OR MORE.

THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL ALLOW THE
BULK OF TUESDAY TO BE DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LINGERING NW FLOW
MOISTURE TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION BACK OVER TO
FREEZING/FROZEN TYPES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE ENDING. A POTENT
TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. NW FLOW MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WRING OUT SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING.

&&

[packfan98]

6z RGEM has a major ice storm for the foothills. Widespread .75-1 of ice accrual before changing to rain. Initial moisture shifted north some and the most snow falls in the northern border counties in NC and VA.