PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WRAL just showed their future cast model... shows rain in wake by 12PM monday. light mix before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow. That's serious CAD and bad ice if we look like that into Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I have been a contractor over 20 years and have seen this many times where models show a warm up and never do. Storms like this have been known to over perform but also I have seen where we get a very small event. Living in the South East we always have to have the perfect set up and seems like we always get shorthanded or every once in a while we get one that over performs. All rain events have over performed since September and this may be one as well. All I do know for sure is even if temps get to 32 after being in the teens tonight and barely to 30 tomorrow and low in low 20's Sunday night from Winston west moisture will make roads terrible. However nothing would surprise me if we get it or we don't. For all on here that read the models and explain to us Thank you! It does help us prepare for wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Initial cold air source is breaking records... NWS AlbanyVerified account @NWSAlbany 4h4 hours ago Unofficial new 850 hPa record low temp set at Albany (NY)! -30.8 Celsius. Beats old record of -30.5 set twice in Jan 1981 and 1982. Mount Washington (NH) Top of last hour was -37F, a new daily record low & coldest since March 2007. Still fallin… Just received tractor trailer load of salt yesterday from Albany. Driver talked about how old its been there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is taking the surface low into Kentucky, hmmm. It has me at 50 degree's Monday night when the heavy band arrives. Glad I'm not paid to do this for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If we get a few inches of snow down and wetbulb to 22 degrees at the start and transition into a sleet sounding and hold that right before the big precip batch moves through, I just don't see how we will warm enough at the surface to benifit quickly enough from the latent heat release of freezing rain to get to 32.6 or whatever technically is the melting point to avoid a 98%plus frozen event. That main precip batch is in and out in 3-6 hours with drizzle on the back side as it exits. Hard to bet against the nam and espeacilly rgem inside 24 to 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z GFS is a lot faster getting precip in compared to the 18z run... by like 12 hours. Significantly wetter for much of NC. Overrunning precip... 00z vs. 18z: And then the GFS Apps Runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's globals verse short term hi res model mayhem that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WRAL just showed their future cast model... shows rain in wake by 12PM monday. light mix before that. Maybe they haven't seen/aren't considering the latest runs (yet) if that map was made prior to airing. Fwiw, being such a difficult system to pin, hey probably aren't ready to commit to anything and stay indifferent for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is taking the surface low into Kentucky, hmmm. It has me at 50 degree's Monday night when the heavy band arrives. Glad I'm not paid to do this for a living. Yep, a shift west there with the sfc low, but it looks like pretty much the same solution from the GFS at the sfc. It continues to be very light with the initial precip south of I-40 Sunday night and through the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's globals verse short term hi res model mayhem that's for sure. High res usually win out inside 36 hours especially with CAD setups. They pickup the cold air wedge better and the precip dynamics from light overrunning better. For example GFS and CMC said this weekend Eastern NC might see an inch right along coast while NAM and RGEM said 1" from Greenville with up to 3" near the coast. Ended up Greenville reported around 1" officially with Kitty Hawk 3.5" from that event. Oh and the Euro had nothing for anyone until about 18 hours out when it finally caught on. This will be the same the mesoscale models will lead the way and Globals will never fully catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The future cast is a blend of some of the other global models I think?And I often find it is hard to get detailed forecasts on the weekend b/c Fishel and Maze are usually not working and the other mets don't really go into a lot of detail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The future cast is a blend of some of the other global models I think? And I often find it is hard to get detailed forecasts on the weekend b/c Fishel and Maze are usually not working and the other mets don't really go into a lot of detail... Out local met just showed latest rpm model, had light freezing drizzle most of the day, when heavy precip arrived about 9 pm, all rain ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Oh I agree snowlover, been that way for several years that I've pursued this hobby. Heck there's countless examples of this, but just look at the HECS storm in Jan how nam nailed the midlayer temps and caught the warm nose 24 hrs out showing it from the onset and we all dismissed or ignored cause the globals where rock steady in putting down a few hours of snow before the transition. Be interesting to see how this unfolds. When you look back at the end of the event tuesday you always learn from it cause there always seems to be a suprised element that we miss and effects the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WRAL just showed their future cast model... shows rain in wake by 12PM monday. light mix before that. WRAL is usually really conservative...and really correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like dewpoints are running 4 to 5 degrees F lower than predicted in the GSP area now. 27/4 here in Simpsonville at 11 PM. How does that affect interpreting the various model solutions for Sunday night/Monday going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z NAM keeps the Triad smack-dab at 32 degrees as the main heavy precip comes blasting through late Monday night/early Tuesday. Makes you wonder... This run really beefed up the QPF with the main band. GSO - 2.2", RDU/HKY - 1.6"... Typical NAM, eh? 32 will be too warm with heavy rates to see much additional accumulations of ice. Need it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WRAL is usually really conservative...and really correct. We're talking about WRAL's in-house computer model, which I would assume is some sort of WRF model? 32 will be too warm with heavy rates to see much additional accumulations of ice. Need it colder. Yeah, I know. Just if it is slightly too warm, it's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is taking the surface low into Kentucky, hmmm. It has me at 50 degree's Monday night when the heavy band arrives. Glad I'm not paid to do this for a living. Honestly, looking at the radar....I think they have a legitimate argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Oh I agree snowlover, been that way for several years that I've pursued this hobby. Heck there's countless examples of this, but just look at the HECS storm in Jan how nam nailed the midlayer temps and caught the warm nose 24 hrs out showing it from the onset and we all dismissed or ignored cause the globals where rock steady in putting down a few hours of snow before the transition. Be interesting to see how this unfolds. When you look back at the end of the event tuesday you always learn from it cause there always seems to be a suprised element that we miss and effects the outcome. I can certainly buy into the colder temps shown on the hi-res models....but for precip, I'm struggling to buy into good precip south of I-40 until the 2nd half of the storm. See it again now on the newly released CMC global which has the low west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We're talking about WRAL's in-house computer model, which I would assume is some sort of WRF model? I think it's been discussed before that their in-house is lacking. You'll often even here the mets criticizing futurecast. Still, I say they are going to play this really conservative until they can't. Also, whom ever was on duty tonight and put the segment together for the news may not be considering the latest model runs yet and maybe hasn't seen them. Idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Per tough-to-read B/W maps, north trend by CMC on 0z run. At 48 hours it has the low over Huntsville. Was Birmingham at 60 hours on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Frosty might get his ice storm I'll take after a few inches of sneet!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Off to bed. 18.2 here in Colfax. Really like tonight's trends of the precip coming in earlier and cold holding in longer. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Per tough-to-read B/W maps, north trend by CMC on 0z run. At 48 hours it has the low over Huntsville. Was Birmingham at 60 hours on the 12z. Yes, although it's pretty prolific with the overrunning for NC and to some degree SC, however, which is where our best snow/sleet chances lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 CAD significantly eroded with 0z CMC vs. 12z -- this appears to be a blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Gfs/NAM are nasty for raleigh. Need to see some consistency/euro support before gonig with the icestorm. I do think as cold as the airmass is this weekend, in-situ wedge will be extremely strong and hard to scour out. I've been waiting to see the models finally catch on to that. I don't see the temps getting above freezing monday in many locations. Most of the moisture on the nam/gfs is isentropic lifting from the strong southerly flow setting up ahead of the SLP. That warm air will be lifting over the cold dome generating precip breaking out over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Experimental 24hr hrrr has snow reaching hickory at 10pm tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yea Grit the trophy for me with this storm is to get as much precip as possible early so I can enjoy atleast 3/4 of a day watching seeing pure snow pile up past a trace. Haven't had that this year. It's been 10 minute snow shower or 3 inch sleet storm, no middle ground. And I've never had luck with SLP in TN NC mtns whether the fizzle, transfer energy miller b or what have you. That's a red flag for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Gfs/NAM are nasty for raleigh. Need to see some consistency/euro support before gonig with the icestorm. I do think as cold as the airmass is this weekend, in-situ wedge will be extremely strong and hard to scour out. I've been waiting to see the models finally catch on to that. I don't see the temps getting above freezing monday in many locations. To get the big ice storm, I think it is all about what happens Monday night. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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