superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A lot of that will be virga. The models take into account virga with the QPF output, though. The first QPF makes it into our area between 00z and 03z on Monday morning, which is Sunday evening. Looks like the first radar returns make it through between 21z and 00z on Sunday night (so, Sunday afternoon), but we start off with a few hours of virga, as expected. Precip makes it to RDU about 3 hours later. GSO starts out with temperatures around 22F while RDU is 24F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You can also verify storm criteria with impacts. What defines an impact or how much does it take to reach "storm" criteria? Good question. A wet 3" snow at 33F on a Sunday clearly has less impact than 1/2" snow at 26F which melts and refreezes on a weekday midday in Atlanta, yet by purely meteorological definitions, the 3" would verify while the 1/2" would not. Thus the addition of "impacts" as a criteria to issue a winter storm watch/warning. -SNELSON Source: NWSI 10-513. See page 6. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The models take into account virga with the QPF output, though. The first QPF makes it into our area between 00z and 03z on Monday morning, which is Sunday evening. Looks like the first radar returns make it through between 21z and 00z on Sunday night (so, Sunday afternoon), but we start off with a few hours of virga, as expected. Precip makes it to RDU about 3 hours later. I know they do. I also know that they sometimes underestimate the amount of precip that will lost to evaporation. I've seen it over and over for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A lot of that will be virga. No it's not compare the total accum maps and the radar precip map... The total accum map shows when it starts hitting the ground it filters out virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I know they do. I also know that they sometimes underestimate the amount of precip that will lost to evaporation. I've seen it over and over for years. Oh, yeah, they definitely might. I just know sometimes people on these forums think that you have to subtract QPF to account for virga, but they account for it (whether they account for too much of it or not enough just depends on the situation... more drier air than the model is predicting will result in less precip, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The stronger CAD signature continues at 39. At that point .25 to .50 qpf has fallen in central and western NC. After that precip lightens up until hour 48 where some precip develops near the SC coast and moves up into eastern NC (low pressure?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 No it's not compare the total accum maps and the radar precip map... The total accum map shows when it starts hitting the ground it filters out virga See my follow up post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 See my follow up post. Yep my bad I didn't see the same point had been brought up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z NAM keeps the Triad smack-dab at 32 degrees as the main heavy precip comes blasting through late Monday night/early Tuesday. Makes you wonder... This run really beefed up the QPF with the main band. GSO - 2.2", RDU/HKY - 1.6"... Typical NAM, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Cold and dry or warm and wet...pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Frosty might get his ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z NAM keeps the Triad smack-dab at 32 degrees as the main heavy precip comes blasting through late Monday night/early Tuesday. Makes you wonder... This run really beefed up the QPF with the main band. GSO - 2.2", RDU/HKY - 1.6"... Typical NAM, eh? If any area is going to fight to the last minute to stay at freezing it's your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z NAM keeps the Triad smack-dab at 32 degrees as the main heavy precip comes blasting through late Monday night/early Tuesday. Makes you wonder... This run really beefed up the QPF with the main band. GSO - 2.2", RDU/HKY - 1.6"... Typical NAM, eh? What was the temp for HKY with the main band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z NAM keeps the Triad smack-dab at 32 degrees as the main heavy precip comes blasting through late Monday night/early Tuesday. Makes you wonder... This run really beefed up the QPF with the main band. GSO - 2.2", RDU/HKY - 1.6"... Typical NAM, eh? . With all the waa with the second batch, I don't see it having a lot of impact at that point. Heavy rates and marginal temps usually don't amount to a lot of impactful zr in the Triad. Now, if temps are 30 or less, it will be a different story. Hope we see 4-6" tomorrow night. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z nam the coldest yet. Now has temps at or slightly below 32 through most of the event in the heart of the damming region from ne ga onward. . Also for the first time dewpoints remain below 32 through all the precip. Bottom line is the nam is ever so slightly catching on. Interesting to note it actually has precip reaching the ground here as early as around 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z nam the coldest yet. Now has temps at or slightly below 32 through most of the event in the heart of the damming region from ne ga onward. . Also for the first time dewpoints remain below 32 through all the precip. Bottom line is the nam is ever so slightly catching on. Interesting to note it actually has precip reaching the ground here as early as around 03z. now seems I gotta to keep an eye on this because I don't want any glaze on the roads when I have to head to class, should be above freezing by then I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM 4km is much dryer than the NAM for the upstate. 1.1 in vs 0.5 in. However temps look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If any area is going to fight to the last minute to stay at freezing it's your area. Yeah, in in-situ CAD situations, this is usually one of the last areas to changeover (of course, areas further to our north changeover later, but we often stay below freezing longer than areas closer to the foothills for some reason). What was the temp for HKY with the main band? About the same. Maybe a hair warmer (32-33). With all the waa with the second batch, I don't see it having a lot of impact at that point. Heavy rates and marginal temps usually don't amount to a lot of impactful zr in the Triad. Now, if temps are 30 or less, it will be a different story. Hope we see 4-6" tomorrow night. TW I think it depends on how much snow/sleet we get on the ground, too. There will be a lot of latent heat release with the main band (if we get freezing rain or sleet), but at the same time snowcover on the ground will help to combat this to some degree. I don't really see the main band being frozen at this point, but you never know and it'll have to be watched. Of course, the Euro has us in the 50s at the same time, so no chance there, haha. The 4 km NAM is the same with temps. 32 here at the warmest. Even RDU and CLT are showing 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z NAM illustrates how impossible this is for forecasters. Shelby (EHO) receives 30 mm of precip (@ 1.2 inches) from Monday evening through early Tuesday. Temp is .1C to .6C during that span. And the temp trend is dropping with each run. Absolutely impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z nam the coldest yet. Now has temps at or slightly below 32 through most of the event in the heart of the damming region from ne ga onward. . Also for the first time dewpoints remain below 32 through all the precip. Bottom line is the nam is ever so slightly catching on. Interesting to note it actually has precip reaching the ground here as early as around 03z. If we stay a few degrees colder somehow, as the main band comes through later Monday, 1" plus QPF and we are around 29 or so, which is totally possible, it would be a lights out ZR event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z RGEM is dropping the overrunning further south and focusing the heaviest over NC as opposed to S VA (compared to its 18z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I see the 4km NAM once again trended colder... It now keeps me at 32 or below for the whole event. Also, it is really starting to expand the wedge southward into southern Georgia. Macon, GA may not reach 40 degree's on Monday. One more trend like this one and we're looking at a major ice storm for all of the upstate and northeast georgia. It even drops the Gainesville area back down to 31 degree's when the final band pivots through. Also, It holds the columbia area at 33 degree's all day monday and through monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 No way it staysm as cold as the rgem shows. While not as cold, the NAM has trended toward a sub freezing even for the duration. Immediate CAD areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Have not seen any posts about analogs for this. Is that because there are none? I can't remember anything that looked like this in may days of model watching and even the early days of TWC. It is a strange setup and maybe that is why there is still so much model disagreement? Anyway, I'll be test firing my generator tomorrow and already have wood staged for both stoves that are already being pushed hard tonight. Hoping for mostly frozen here and very good to see the colder trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DP's running 5-10 degree colder than forecast from Boston on down; HP still west. Now we need the moisture to continue to trend quicker; might have something, still a big IF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Great run by RGEM and super cold also. Low 20s as the precip begins overnight and keeps even RDU below freezing through 18z Monday. Drops a solid 2-4" of snow in Western NC also. We are in the "butter range" of the NAM and RGEM and I would use NAM for transition timing and RGEM for precip. Blend of both for temps. This has worked very well inside 36 hours all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WPC from 430 discussion... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THESURFACE LOW TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WPC PREFERRED A TRACK SIMILARTO THE GFS...DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF WHICH REMAINS A MORE WESTERLYOUTLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 10pm Monday Night. 31 degree's in Lawrenceville, Georgia with heavy precip falling on the 4km NAM. Also, I know everybody is refering to this as an "insitu-CAD", but it's trending more towards classic CAD; at least for Monday morning. The 4km has 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds howling through the carolina's Monday morning with the parent high in good position over New York state. We do lose the parent high shortly after that, but northeasterly winds keep coming through Monday night until the last band of frontal precip moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Initial cold air source is breaking records... NWS AlbanyVerified account @NWSAlbany 4h4 hours ago Unofficial new 850 hPa record low temp set at Albany (NY)! -30.8 Celsius. Beats old record of -30.5 set twice in Jan 1981 and 1982. Mount Washington (NH) Top of last hour was -37F, a new daily record low & coldest since March 2007. Still fallin… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 10pm Monday Night. 31 degree's in Lawrenceville, Georgia with heavy precip falling on the 4km NAM.That is insane! I wonder what the NAM and RGEM are picking up on? The high holding on longer or strength of cold dry air! Precip and colder, shifting south on short range models , hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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