Shawn Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's out now. It's practically the same as the operational 12z Euro. The 18z French Fries looks pretty juicy for the CAD regions and it's pretty cold. You can view it here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&carte=2 ARPEGE is cold, and hangs us in more of a icy look for a big chunk around the Midlands. As the heavy banding approaches, the Upstate still gets rocked. ARPEGE hard to believe.. with such heavy icing/sleet up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just thought I would throw this out there. This from the NWS in Atlanta. (FFC) their briefing from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just thought I would throw this out there. This from the NWS in Atlanta. (FFC) their briefing from today. NWS_1.JPG Reckon they going with the RGEM/NAM? That would be my bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Reckon they going with the RGEM/NAM? That would be my bet There was an event I forecast in ATL last winter which nearly busted, I don't believe the low was as potent as this one so this time it is likely everyone goes over 32 but I know the FZRA made it within about 15-20 miles NE of the airport and most model guidance, even the RGEM and NAM the day before showed only extreme NERN GA getting FZRA. I believe there was major FZRA only 30-40 miles NE of the airport. The models were a good 60-80 miles off on the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There was an event I forecast in ATL last winter which nearly busted, I don't believe the low was as potent as this one so this time it is likely everyone goes over 32 but I know the FZRA made it within about 15-20 miles NE of the airport and most model guidance, even the RGEM and NAM the day before showed only extreme NERN GA getting FZRA. I believe there was major FZRA only 30-40 miles NE of the airport. The models were a good 60-80 miles off on the wedge. When you say everyone you meaning everyone in northern and NeGa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Charlotte back to Atlanta to Athens DP's still 5-10 degrees below forecast. Moisture being delayed on the models allows the rebound which minimizes the risk back towards ATL. The event last winter had moisture moving in quicker than forecast which allowed wet bulbs to be reached much quicker and wound up lower than originally forecast. IF moisture comes in quicker than forecast on this one could be a bit more wintery.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There was an event I forecast in ATL last winter which nearly busted, I don't believe the low was as potent as this one so this time it is likely everyone goes over 32 but I know the FZRA made it within about 15-20 miles NE of the airport and most model guidance, even the RGEM and NAM the day before showed only extreme NERN GA getting FZRA. I believe there was major FZRA only 30-40 miles NE of the airport. The models were a good 60-80 miles off on the wedge. You are referring to February 16-17, 2015. Rain all day here in Forsyth at 32.5-33.0, but then by 3pm or so the temp fell to 31 giving east Cherokee to South Forsyth to North Gwinnett N/Eward their biggest icestorm in 10 years. That night I had lightning mistaken for transformers blowing. Lost power the whole night. Not predicted, FFC had to play catchup with winter storm warnings. Not sure about the low or the strength of the high associated with it and it was a hybrid, so that just tells me that we DON'T need a perfect high in a perfect location to get an icestorm down here. The wedge is sometimes an unpredictable beast and defies forecasts often. Just wonder what will happen in North GA Monday. I'm assuming since precip is forecast to begin before solar heating begins, that will help keep temps/dp's in check or will the wedge already be weakening with WAA increasing even early monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 guys I figured that all the models would by now be forever in our favor for a more southern track, when is the witching hour that if the Euro trends more south, when should we start seeing this if it's going to happen? 2 days ago! Looking at the latest runs, the thing that I believe will be most disappointing with this system is the initial band of precip Sun night and thru the day Monday. In my view, the core of this precip will be focused into E WV, SW VA, and NW NC....largely a result of the 5h wave, 850 trough, sfc low tracking too far north. Then when the core band of precip works thru Monday night, the question becomes who remains in the sub 32 air - I'd say it's most likely limited to north of I-40, but we'll see. I thought the wxsouth write-up above and the Raleigh discussion from this aftn were both good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Charlotte back to Atlanta to Athens DP's still 5-10 degrees below forecast. Moisture being delayed on the models allows the rebound which minimizes the risk back towards ATL. The event last winter had moisture moving in quicker than forecast which allowed wet bulbs to be reached much quicker and wound up lower than originally forecast. IF moisture comes in quicker than forecast on this one could be a bit more wintery.. I agree with you hawk...may come in quicker and more wintery...I've never had the crows come and hit my feeders...something is coming and I don't feel the models are handling this cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If there is one region I wouldn't want to forecast winter weather, it would be the upstate. I think he does a very thorough job, and for the mountains, does better than WLOS. I agree with this. The kid grew up in Henderson, so he knows the mountains well. He is still having to learn the Upstate. The only way to know the Upstate is to experience it. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaryB Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I agree with you hawk...may come in quicker and more wintery...I've never had the crows come and hit my feeders...something is coming and I don't feel the models are handling this cold The animals always know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 More precip into N. NC at hour 27 (0z NAM). Edit: Central and northern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I could be wrong but it looks colder than the last run around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A little stronger CAD. Still higher qpf in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A little stronger CAD. Still higher qpf in NC.What time is precip falling by, in your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 .25 or greater qpf from RDU westward. Much of that would have been snow. At hour 36 looks like snow would transition to something else for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 .25 or greater qpf from RDU westward. Much of that would have been snow. At hour 36 looks like snow would transition to something else for most of NC. Probably sleet after the snow due to cold 925mb temps... Then maybe zr later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What time is precip falling by, in your area? Hour 36. I'm comparing both runs and you can see the CADs a little stronger. edit: It's holding on to the high a little longer up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM has the HP in the NE a bit stronger, as well. A bit more of a wedge signature is evident with isobars bowing south down the east side of the Appalachians, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks to spread across the northern piedmont (Triad over to Triangle) from 9 to midnight. over .25 falls by dawn. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Colder and more precip trend on the short range models continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks to spread across the northern piedmont (Triad over to Triangle) from 9 to midnight. over .25 falls by dawn. TW Hope to get some of that Atlantic moisture off the SC coast to come in up our way, like Shawn was talking about earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 At hour 42 it is 28 degrees here. Was 31 degrees on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 24-hr QPF at hr the 42/48 panels between the 00z and 18z runs shows how the initial overrunning precip shifted south: The WB map shows right about 0.5" QPF for GSO and RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Might have to change the winter storm watch to earlier if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks to spread across the northern piedmont (Triad over to Triangle) from 9 to midnight. over .25 falls by dawn. TW A lot of that will be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hope to get some of that Atlantic moisture off the SC coast to come in up our way, like Shawn was talking about earlier With dewpoints so low, a lot of it is going to get eaten up by the dry air before it can get up that way. Literally, total precipitation on the new NAM 4KM is printing 0.1 even this far South in Columbia. In other words, basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 24-hr QPF at hr the 42/48 panels between the 00z and 18z runs shows how the initial overrunning precip shifted south: The WB map shows right about 0.5" QPF for GSO and RDU. That blue is sinking down into NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Might have to change the winter storm watch to earlier if this keeps up. I'm looking for a winter weather advisory later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is formal criteria. Winter Storm Watch - Conditions are favorable for either heavy snow, heavy sleet, damaging ice accumulations, or a combination of these factors, to develop within the next 48 hours. For the GSP CWFA, heavy snow is defined as 3 inches accumulating across the foothills and piedmont and 4 inches across the NC mountains in a 12-hour period, or 4 inches across the foothills and piedmont and 5 inches across the NC mountains in a 24-hour period. Damaging ice accumulations typically result from freezing rain accumulating 1/4 inch or more on exposed surface. It has been locally determined that 1/2 inch of sleet is considered "heavy" for Watch and Warning purposes. http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/winter/Product%20Description.pdf You can also verify storm criteria with impacts. What defines an impact or how much does it take to reach "storm" criteria? Good question. A wet 3" snow at 33F on a Sunday clearly has less impact than 1/2" snow at 26F which melts and refreezes on a weekday midday in Atlanta, yet by purely meteorological definitions, the 3" would verify while the 1/2" would not. Thus the addition of "impacts" as a criteria to issue a winter storm watch/warning. -SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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