Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hmmmm. 18z GFS stronger with wedge than 12z run -- help me out, but isn't a main difference here speed? Looks like the Canadian models get the big precip in sooner -- locking in the wedge, while the GFS, for example, doesn't get the bulk of precip into the CLT area until 9z Tuesday. yep... it sure looks realistic to see the heart of the wedge in western north carolina to go from the low to mid 20s at 12z jump 10 degrees to 33 by 0z and then 51 by 06...with the low traveling on the south side of the wedge (or some sort of reflection). Regardless, BullsH8t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Chris Justus, WYFF, just updated his forecast/thoughts on Facebook He's going to be live on Facebook at 5:45pm Yea he says the same thing a few of us on here has been saying last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Dewpoints here in GA NE of ATL are running 5-10 degrees below forecast based on latest MOS for GFS & NAM; this will be interesting to watch as time goes on. The lowest DP for Gainesville for the next 24 hours was supposed to around 7 or 8; already -3 and that's on NW winds. Athens 7 or 8 and they're down to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 4KM nam won't back down from this Atlantic moisture streaming in. It's getting close to doing something more ominous off the coast we won't speak of (right now) with a wedge firmly in place down into SC. I don't know what to think right now with it. The RGEM is colder. At least school is out around here Monday morning, in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How many times has Chris justice been wrong. If I had a nickel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How many times has Chris justice been wrong. If I had a nickel.... All hecwas basically saying on FB was about the models almost always underestimates the CAD and the wedge could hold longer into the upstate causing a possible big ice storm. Pretty much what most on here thinks. But I agree he is wrong more than right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can someone answer this, GSP has upstate under WSW with up to 1" of snow/sleet and a Trace of ice. How in the world does that meet watch or warning criteria??It's not a warning , it's a watch! Can easily be turned into a wwa or warning! They are WATCHING the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 30 hours until launch. 24 for some western folks. Almost nowcast mode. Somebody going to fire up an obs thread for this one? Blue Kazoo comes thru! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 4KM nam won't back down from this Atlantic moisture streaming in. It's getting close to doing something more ominous off the coast we won't speak of (right now) with a wedge firmly in place down into SC. I don't know what to think right now with it. The RGEM is colder. At least school is out around here Monday morning, in case. Our dewpoints are already approaching 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 -3 dewpoint here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 30 hours until launch. 24 for some western folks. Almost nowcast mode. Somebody going to fire up an obs thread for this one? Blue Kazoo comes thru! This is the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 KGSO is 30/-4 as of 5 PM. -4 DP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 -3 dewpoint hereAs hawk posted above, if the models are already initializing DPs too warm, they are most likely gonna be off on temps! I saw the faintest of clouds on the western horizon , will be nice to hit the teens and get a little cloudcover tomorrow , just for a little insurance ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 40/10 here wind gusting to 15mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 KGSO is 30/-4 as of 5 PM. -4 DP... Meanwhile, a little further north and deeper into CAD country, 23F TD -5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is the obs thread Well ok then! Guess I missed the board memo that said we would have obs and discussion combined. So in that case, it's really cold, and my fireplace is about to become warm. :-) Watched Brad P's video. Seems to me we want to watch the pace of the high exiting moreso than the track of the low. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 43/7 right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can someone answer this, GSP has upstate under WSW with up to 1" of snow/sleet and a Trace of ice. How in the world does that meet watch or warning criteria?? A watch implies at least 50% confidence (not likely) and the goal posts are generally set wide with a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 26.2 degrees and dropping fast. One thing we know the ground will be plenty cold when the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How many times has Chris justice been wrong. If I had a nickel.... If there is one region I wouldn't want to forecast winter weather, it would be the upstate. I think he does a very thorough job, and for the mountains, does better than WLOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WxSouth Facebook update around an hour ago, FWIW: https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/ The latest thinking is that the storm arrives earlier for TN, KY and western NC, through central and western Virginia. Timing west of the mountains will be later Sunday and by night could be spreading light snow into western and central NC, and Virginia, but amounts east of the mountains will be light in that band. By Monday, the snow in most of Tenn. is changing to rain quickly, from west to east through the day, with far north, and northeast TN remaining snow and sleet the longest. By then, moderate snows will have already occcurred along and north of 40, into much of central and southern and eastern Kentucky. And a few inches of snow will fall quickly in middle and western Virginia down to the Triad region and Foothills, mountains of NC. Most models don't produce much precipitation in extreme southern NC and most of Upstate SC and northeast Georgia region until much later on Monday. By then it's questionable where the temps will be. But any amount of freezing drizzle and sleet will create a mess on roads , even the slightest amount. By far the worst aspect of the storm will be the C.A.D. zones (cold air damming). That is in western Virginia, western NC, nestled next to the spine of the mountain chain. Places like Roanoke,Lynchburg, Wytheville to Hickory, Marion and Lake Lure NC are in line for Snow first, then changing to sleet, then to Freezing Rain. A mess. The tricky part will be Monday night overnight as a line of thunderstorms in southern Tennessee through Alabama and Georgia approaches this cold dome of air. Most models warm up the temps just in time as the heavy rain arrives. This might be too fast, and usually, it is. By then, there will have been substantial snow and ice..and it will be a waiting game to see how quickly the temperatures rise in the CAD zones. Most areas will be in the 20's all day Monday, and it will be a slow rise, so when that heavy precip arrives, it may get very rough with ice accumulating FAST in the counties next to the Spine of the Apps in VA, NC, eastern WV and possibly extreme northwest SC region, into far Northeast GA.I won't be surprised if the heavier thunderstorms moving through TN and the mountains of NC have some thundersnow with it, briefly.Here's the basic outline of impact regions. I hedged against too much in northern GA and Upper SC thanks to the delay in substantial precip, but as always any freezing drizzle makes roads a skating rink. And the snow burst initially may be further south than shown Monday morning.Stay Safe and prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just FWIW, I noticed with the last storm that the tropicaltidbits maps (for example, the 4km NAM) seem to overdo the "snow" on reflectivity. Here's the 18z run on various sites. The tropical tidbits site seems to turn any bit of precip into the white stuff in reality a lot of that is most likely virga. It looks nice, but it shouldn't be taken 100% verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm noticing even the hypers are scared to call this one. You know its a tough call to make when they are very cautious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Subtle improvements with the 18z GEFS. Colder surface temps and the HP hangs on a tick longer and stronger. Looks like there will be a spread with the low placements on the individual members with some that will probably be further south. The mean low tracks straight across I-40 (not happening). This frame is after everything is above freezing. You can see the mean 1004mb low pressure around DC. However, look at all of the precip that is off the NC coast around Wilmington. This has increased significantly over the 12z run. This indicates that there has to be some of the members with a low there. Interesting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 And here's the snowfall from the 18z GEFS. More showing up towards the Triangle which I take as further evidence of some lows that are pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just FWIW, I noticed with the last storm that the tropicaltidbits maps (for example, the 4km NAM) seem to overdo the "snow" on reflectivity. Here's the 18z run on various sites. The tropical tidbits site seems to turn any bit of precip into the white stuff in reality a lot of that is most likely virga. It looks nice, but it shouldn't be taken 100% verbatim. Really good observation, Jon. I hadn't noticed that before, but I now see the big difference between the sites. Thanks for pointing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What time does the 12z euro para run? Any updates. I know that some of its runs have been flatter than the regular Euro over the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What time does the 12z euro para run? Any updates. I know that some of its runs have been flatter than the regular Euro over the past few runs. It's out now. It's practically the same as the operational 12z Euro. The 18z French Fries looks pretty juicy for the CAD regions and it's pretty cold. You can view it here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&carte=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's out now. It's practically the same as the operational 12z Euro. Well, it's pretty obvious we won't get a favorable low track and have to rely on the overrunning moisture and cold temperatures. It will be interesting to see what unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yes they will That is one nasty ice storm if it does Agreed...IMO it's gonna be a bad ice storm for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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