kvegas-wx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lets just start with the short range stuff.....say tomorrows cold and DPs for example, and see if the models have that right. If they correctly see the low DPs and dont bust high on the temps then maybe they have sunday night and monday night correct as well. I have a hunch my morning temps from Kvegas up to Stuart tomorrow morning will be a solid 3-5 degrees colder than forecast right now. Edit - dang beanskip, we had the same thought there! Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS 2m temps at 48 hours look much more like 0z NAM than 0z RGEM. And those temps are before precip arrives, so with the DPs we will have I'm speaking of upstate, its going to cool another 4-5 degrees so we looking at mid 20s and even when the waa start to take over the storm could be over causing us to stay frozen the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What a weird track on the gfs. Low goes from Knoxville over the mountains to N Wilksboro? Place your bets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Updated WPC Probabilities for Snow and Freezing Rain You are being a little disingenuous with your wording. Those maps you posted aren't snow and freezing rain probabilities but rather snow and freezing rain probabilities of a certain depth. If you are going to post, spend a little more time determining how to articulate your posts so that they are accurate and contain meaningfull impact. You obviously have knowledge that can benefit us who read this forum, I would simply recommend you spend a little bit of time reviewing drafts before pressing "post". Having typed that, I appreciate your contribution to this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What a weird track on the gfs. Low goes from Knoxville over the mountains to N Wilksboro? Place your bets! The closer we get to this "event", the more confusion I seem to be feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The problem is, the initial wave of precip is pretty light -- it will cause big travel problems in NC in particular because it doesn't take much at 20-25 degrees to cause problems, but as it stands now, most of what falls will come down after the wedge is scoured out, unless you believe the Canadian. 0z GFS track looks like a ski-lift -- right over the mountaintops of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tuesday afternoon after the rain clears it should be nice, almost 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Guys you need to keep in mind how bad the gfs with cad events. I don't have facts or an article but I'm pretty sure I've heard the gfs is one o the worst models dealing with a CAD and low track. In this case automatically give higher res models a little more credit than the broader op models. Rgem is the master of cad it knows what's up this isn't going to be a storm where the gfs can be followed much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It was close to the 12z run but the 2nd wave that digs on the backside of the trough does not dig as much on this run. So instead of a weak low in southern Alabama you get one in northern Alabama. Its still far away from the euro run, that has a phased bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It was close to the 12z run but the 2nd wave that digs on the backside of the trough does not dig as much on this run. So instead of a weak low in southern Alabama you get one in northern Alabama. Its still far away from the euro run, that has a phased bomb! I thought the Euro was North and warm, did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Good grief, the CMC is colder and a tick south then it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC singing I won't back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Good grief, the CMC is colder and a tick south then it's 12z run. What in the...? These models are gonna cause me to drink more alcohol then I already do. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I thought the Euro was North and warm, did I miss something?it was. I was just comparing the last two Gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What in the...? These models are gonna cause me to drink more alcohol then I already do. I'm telling ya its gonna end up being a CMC/NAM Solution. And I say that only because they have been the most consistent. I may be wrong but that's my gut feeling. The Euro and gfs is gonna lose this battle. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is ridiculous, there's a reason it's the worst scoring model. The lights would be turned off in the piedmont indefinitely down to GSP to NE GA, all frozen it looks like. Miller A track across souther gulf states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC has 1.75"+ QPF all frozen from GSO down to GSP and points west. Not sure what the mix of snow/sleet/frzn would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is ridiculous, there's a reason it's the worst scoring model. The lights would be turned off in the piedmont indefinitely down to GSP to NE GA, all frozen it looks like. Miller A track across souther gulf states.it has ukie support until that changes ill still show interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You can see how the QPF shield sinks south and east with this SLP position as opposed to the NAM/GFS. Probably wrong but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 it has ukie support until that changes ill still show interest. French model also right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is ridiculous, there's a reason it's the worst scoring model. The lights would be turned off in the piedmont indefinitely down to GSP to NE GA, all frozen it looks like. Miller A track across souther gulf states.Cmc does remarkably well with cad setups. And the rgem proves this thing could still be under modeled shoot... The rgem has a wedge building all the way to 850mb layer that's a 5k+ thick wedge. Which historically we normally see big icing with a wedge like that.This is true arctic air to get us close if not down Into single digits. I'm telling you guys cmc and nam still under doing the cad strength or at least it's staying power. Tell me how can a terribly weak lp just boot a wedge like that outta here when a monster lp a few weeks ago couldn't get a wedge cleared out of NC and that wedge wasn't even a super strong one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It warms at 850 for everyone so it's ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 French model also right?yeah, do,t know how good that model is tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It warms at 850 for everyone so it's ice. Initial band is definitely snow, sets up a band right down I-40, it's light but more snow than I have seen this year. Similar to the GFS/NAM but just a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 850's through 66 are below, not sure about other levels though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS has Raleigh in mid-50's at 1am on Tuesday and CMC is still icing away. CMC is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Cmc does remarkably well with cad setups. And the rgem proves this thing could still be under modeled shoot... The rgem has a wedge building all the way to 850mb layer that's a 5k+ thick wedge. Which historically we normally see big icing with a wedge like that. This is true arctic air to get us close if not down Into single digits. I'm telling you guys cmc and nam still under doing the cad strength or at least it's staying power. Tell me how can a terribly weak lp just boot a wedge like that outta here when a monster lp a few weeks ago couldn't get a wedge cleared out of NC and that wedge wasn't even a super strong one This has been my thinking the whole time! I've been saying that strong a CAD has no choice but to keep a weak LP on a southern track! That cold means Business and it also means a Sig ICESTORM for CAD areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Unmet? It has spit out some southern tracks the past few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We'll find out about ukie in a minute. Getting inside 72 now so the biggest trends to keep tab on are short range. I've seen euro on its own and be right, but usually by now it's got something in its corner when that has happened. It's the best out there but its not without sin at times. Course the one time we need it to be off I'll be shocked with or bad luck this is that time. Atleast it'll be intriguing in the model war arena. But most 9f us are on here because we long for the winter weather not to see who can nail the forecast right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Canadian has not wavered with the wedge at all in the last 4 or 5 days. It's been pretty consistent with the low track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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