superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like the primary low is still in GA to me. Not sure I see a cutter on the 00z NAM. Looks like a prolonged light/moderate SN to IP to ZR event for CADland going over to rain as the heaviest precip comes in at the end, but just barely. The low cuts through NC and the wedge scours out to some degree (verbatim like 33/RN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 All hail king Euro and EPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like the primary low is still in GA to me. Not sure I see a cutter on the 00z NAM. Looks like a prolonged light/moderate SN to IP to ZR event for CADland going over to rain as the heaviest precip comes in at the end, but just barely. The low cuts through NC and the wedge scours out to some degree (verbatim like 33/RN). Agreed, I don't see a bad ice storm, but with roads as cold as they are it could be a skating rink with 0.25" precip, about 0.4" towards your area. That will be the only saving grace, with the SLP track we dry slot and warm up and then washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's ripping up in boone with the wind on king street cam 8f yall want to take a look. The recent nam run goes to rain last quarter of storm in Triad but by the skin of its teeth before moisture has ended. Gonna be a tight rope and jury is still out as far as how big a winter storm this could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On tropical tidbits, there's a surface low up the apps. Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a low in WV to me. Agreed, I don't see a bad ice storm, but with roads as cold as they are it could be a skating rink with 0.25" precip, about 0.4" towards your area. That will be the only saving grace, with the SLP track we dry slot and warm up and then washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Mountains stay all frozen this run correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems like the surface maps are painting the surface LP in difference places depending on the source (NCEP, AmericanWx, etc.). The surface lows are all weak, so it's hard to differentiate them. This is the hr 72 panel from the AmericanWx model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Considering the 4k NAM @ 60 looks a lot different than the 32k and 12k @ 60, I think there's still a lot more hair pulling before this one can be called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 nam_namer_072_10m_wnd_precip.gif Looks like a low in WV to me. There's a high in LA and FL!? That run just got of the short bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems like the surface maps are painting the surface LP in difference places depending on the source (NCEP, AmericanWx, etc.). The surface lows are all weak, so it's hard to differentiate them. This is the hr 72 panel from the AmericanWx model center. There appears to be two SLP's, one up in WVA and another down central SC. I guess that's why it looks like a front at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 if you take the 00Z NAM at face value for GSP.....it looks to be as close as you can get to a nasty ice storm. Just above freezing at hr 84 when the heaviest QPF (0.5 inches) comes through. Would not take much for a 1 or 2 degree bust with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 if you take the 00Z NAM at face value for GSP.....it looks to be as close as you can get to a nasty ice storm. Just above freezing at hr 84 when the heaviest QPF (0.5 inches) comes through. Would not take much for a 1 or 2 degree bust with this one.Robert said too cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 if you take the 00Z NAM at face value for GSP.....it looks to be as close as you can get to a nasty ice storm. Just above freezing at hr 84 when the heaviest QPF (0.5 inches) comes through. Would not take much for a 1 or 2 degree bust with this one. and considering the 4k NAM is ~ 2 degrees colder in most CAD locations when it ends @ hr 60, than the 32 and 12k are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There appears to be two SLP's, one up in WVA and another down central SC. I guess that's why it looks like a front at this time. . This setup would maximize a cad a bit as that second weak lp over SC actually helps keep the cold air locked in in the prime cad locations. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 if you take the 00Z NAM at face value for GSP.....it looks to be as close as you can get to a nasty ice storm. Just above freezing at hr 84 when the heaviest QPF (0.5 inches) comes through. Would not take much for a 1 or 2 degree bust with this one. And we all know that 99% of the time it verifies colder than what is being modeled. So I85 corridor could get very ugly! I don't want an ice storm but in this case I think we have to prepare for the worse even if it turns out dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Check this out for GSO and Winston. Never gets above 32 on the 3 hour readings in GSO. Hit's 33 at INT.. hmmmmmmm GSO - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kgso.txt INT - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kint.txt TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The low up north is from northern stream that dies in the ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 50s51 seconds ago RPM model ice forecast came in higher. Becasue it uses some NAM data similar to the NAM. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 if you take the 00Z NAM at face value for GSP.....it looks to be as close as you can get to a nasty ice storm. Just above freezing at hr 84 when the heaviest QPF (0.5 inches) comes through. Would not take much for a 1 or 2 degree bust with this one. The ARPEGE model has been showing that heavy band frozen for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Does anyone have a link to the rgem that goes out to 54 hours? Hr 48 has a band of moderate snow in North Ga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The RGEM is crazy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Does anyone have a link to the rgem that goes out to 54 hours? Here you go. RGEM Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Does anyone have a link to the rgem that goes out to 54 hours? Only the 6z and 18z go out to 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The RGEM is crazy cold. And if precip were to start early and lock that in at the sfc, it would be bad news for the CAD regions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Did anyone look at the 18z gfs para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems to me that short-term temp/DP verification is going to be telling here. Surely it's not a coincidence that that models showing coldest/driest air at 48 hours (new RGEM/Canadian) are also showing the low bouncing around the wedge. If you toggle the 0z RGEM and 0z NAM at 48 hours, the 2m temp differences are amazing -- RGEM is 3-4 degrees colder and has almost all of S.C. subfreezing, save for far southern corner, while NAM only has NE half of state subfreezing. I'd bet a cold beer that the 24-36 hour temp/DP verification winner will also have the most accurate storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Rgem has been great with temps btw To me I see the rgem temps occurring. We have some bitter cold working into the areA. This will be a mega CAD and it's not going anywhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Check this out for GSO and Winston. Never gets above 32 on the 3 hour readings in GSO. Hit's 33 at INT.. hmmmmmmm GSO - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kgso.txt INT - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kint.txt TW Burlington is similar to GSO for max temps. Even has a thunder sleet sighting... http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbuy.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS 2m temps at 48 hours look much more like 0z NAM than 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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