Lookout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 folks, there is too much off topic chatter going on. Try to keep it more focused and leave the one liners and jokes to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 he said he felt both the NAM and GGEM were too cold on temps.....surprised me as well, based on following him during CAD events for years Which doesn't make any sense if he thinks all those models are to warm including the Euro yet he's talking thundersnow possibly down to N GA? I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 he said he felt both the NAM and GGEM were too cold on temps.....surprised me as well, based on following him during CAD events for years He will be right on temps if he is using the deep euro SLP track. It is hard to bet against the Euro/eps at this range. It would be a fairly big bust inside day 4 if it went flat and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 He will be right on temps if he is using the deep euro SLP track. It is hard to bet against the Euro/eps at this range. It would be a fairly big bust inside day 4 if it went flat and east. He seems to be pimping a big ice storm at the moment, though, so I don't know. I'm not a WxSouth subscriber at the moment, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro para much weaker than 0z, takes the low through the upstate of sc the the piedmont. Last run was in central Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The global models are struggling horribly. When the Para and OP Euro can't figure it out, then it makes sense why some of our SE offices are siding with the shorter range guidance, such as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 he said he felt both the NAM and GGEM were too cold on temps.....surprised me as well, based on following him during CAD events for years That is really shocking to hear if that is what he said. In fact, that might be the first time i've ever heard of him saying models are too cold in a cad situation. Considering the setup i find it nearly impossible that is what he's really thinking. Maybe someone hijacked his computer anywho, speaking of cold..18z rgem sure is. 20s for highs in most of the carolinas sunday as well as maybe even extreme ne ga...also of note is it has precip already into extreme northern alabama by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 he said he felt both the NAM and GGEM were too cold on temps.....surprised me as well, based on following him during CAD events for years a little too cold, of course he says anything is still on the table at this stage. With so many different solutions from models, all he or anybody can do is give it there best guess until it gets closer and better model agreement! But from past experience, He is one of the best with CAD events.... IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's really hard to unlock in-situ CAD where we're at. If we start out with temperatures in the low 20s, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get above freezing until it's over. The NW Piedmont is often one of the last places to go above freezing, even slower to do so than many of the foothills regions along the escarpment. Examples: The good thing is that with surface temperatures in the 20s and 925 mb temps cold, at least initially, we might be looking at more sleet, as things currently stand, IMO (we'll see, of course). Yes, and that was one that was underforecasted even right up until it was nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro para much weaker than 0z, takes the low through the upstate of sc the the piedmont. Last run was in central Tennessee. Which shows that the Euro is having a hard time as well. It has struggled lately and I'm going with a blend of NAM/ARPEGE/UK for this storm right now. They've been doing well recently especially inside 72 hours the ARPEGE and NAM have been the best imo. Fwiw Larry Cosgrove also has mentioned this track further south than modeled and thinks it will cross Eastern NC or just off the coast and move NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z CMC is a nice hit.. I mean it's a pounding!!! Snow then a lot of ice best I can tell from maps. I didn't know the cmc ran 4 times a day. Looks like it's consistent with previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes, and that was one that was underforecasted even right up until it was nowcast time. Yeah, March '14 was a big positive forecast bust for us. We didn't even get warned until it was zero hour. We may not get January 2000-like surprises anymore, but we do get surprises, and that was one. It didn't really trend wintry for us on the modeling until the day before when the models finally picked up on the in-situ CAD, despite it being March and the HP sliding off the coast. For some reason, it was one of my favorite storms looking back. It's always nice to overperform, even if it's in sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 He seems to be pimping a big ice storm at the moment, though, so I don't know. I'm not a WxSouth subscriber at the moment, though. in the northern CAD regions. I don't think he is sold on the strength/staying power of the wedge further south "yet". Definitely left the door open. I think he is like the way the NAM and Canadian is handling the system, he's just not sold on the magnitude of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I didn't know the cmc ran 4 times a day. Looks like it's consistent with previous runs. It's a bomb, snow then lots and lots of Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 in the northern CAD regions. I don't think he is sold on the strength/staying power of the wedge further south "yet". Definitely left the door open. I think he is like the way the NAM and Canadian is handling the system, he's just not sold on the magnitude of the cold. Oh, okay. The thing is that the operational Euro doesn't even support icing up this way in the CAD heartland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which shows that the Euro is having a hard time as well. It has struggled lately and I'm going with a blend of NAM/ARPEGE/UK for this storm right now. They've been doing well recently especially inside 72 hours the ARPEGE and NAM have been the best imo. Fwiw Larry Cosgrove also has mentioned this track further south than modeled and thinks it will cross Eastern NC or just off the coast and move NE from there.I think we know less now than we did 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't live in a cad zone, but from my experience the cmc does well with the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 a little too cold, of course he says anything is still on the table at this stage. With so many different solutions from models, all he or anybody can do is give it there best guess until it gets closer and better model agreement! But from past experience, He is one of the best with CAD events.... IMO agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 FCC WITH THE NAM NOW EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...IT IS BRINGINGTHE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF ATL/AHN KEEPING NORTH GA IN THE COLD AIRWEDGE. WHAT IS LENDING TOA HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING IS THE 12Z GFS IS NOWMUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW IN ASIMILAR FASHION TO THE NAM. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ALITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THEWEDGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH GA. SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERSSHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLYINCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACELOW PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY CHANGING THE PRECIP TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOSTOF NORTH GA. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That is really shocking to hear if that is what he said. In fact, that might be the first time i've ever heard of him saying models are too cold in a cad situation. Considering the setup i find it nearly impossible that is what he's really thinking. Maybe someone hijacked his computer I was surprised as well but verbatim...... "The GGEM (Canada) though is probably too cold athe surface all over the CAD zones where it's too cold for too long, since there's no sustaining surface high. However, the GFS and ECMWF are too warm. NAM is colder, nearly GGEM like" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM courtesy of Mike Dross at Wright Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Roberts (WxSouth) latest thoughts per FB post, The situation for Sunday Night, into Monday Night and Tuesday is a super-complicated event. I haven't seen one quite this challenging in the Apps, the Carolinas, and Tennessee Valley in quite a few years. There's high bust potential either way (more snow, less snow, more ice, less ice) The models have different ideas, and aren't handling this very unique setup properly, but they are starting to come out into 2 basic camps. The usually good European model remains consistently northernmost track now, which would limit snow and ice in the piedmont of VA, MD down to central and west NC. Either way, it does drop some snow, initially through TN and Kentucky from Sunday night into early Monday, but I don't think it's handling this correctly yet. It goes on to pull the surface low directly into the NC mountains, which is where there will be a large pool of cold air at the surface, and into western Virginia. Either the low should cut WEST or WELL EAST of the mountain chain in this event. The Canadian Model has been consistent for many days on a more southern track and hammers the piedmont of VA, NC and especially the locked in colder areas of foothills , mountains through the storm. It still paints a major ice storm. I don't trust its low level temps at the end of the storm (latent heat should release enough warmth to turn over to plain rain some areas near the end.) But overall, its a pretty serious icestorm, on top of snow late Sunday Night and early Monday. The Tennessee Valley and especially north and along I-40 to southern Kentucky have several inches of snow from the developing storm Sunday night and early Monday, changing to rain western and southern TN midday Monday, but maybe a mix in northern valleys and northeast TN...depends on the low track as it goes through Georgia. The track of the low means everything as to who gets what. Usually, when cold air gets locked in the 85 corridor from Richmond to Charlotte to Spartanburg, its very hard to dislodge. It will happen slowly, from the edges. But as you get further inland toward Hickory, Greensboro, Danville, Roanoke, Lynchburg through Shenandoah, that region is the last to go above freezing. And by the time it does, the precip may be done and over. But the European Model would imply a rapid change to plain rain most of those areas, which really makes putting out a forecast call a hard thing to do just yet. It's a very complicated flow pattern, and probably will be one of those storms that has a surprise for some region. If the European Model is correct in wrapping up the storm strongly in the base of the Appalachians Monday Night, it would open the door to thundersnow for eastern Tennessee, western NC , SW Virginia, the Southern Apps region. Its very difficult right now to draw the freezing line in upstate SC and northeast Georgia Monday, as it is a very close call. There's still some time to see how this unfolds, but there are atleast some "near certainties" 1) This will drop a lot of precipitation in the Colder side of the storm 2) There will be major ice (all models have it) and possibly a very damaging icestorm in the Lee of the Appalachians, and some moderate icing possible well into Piedmont VA, NC, upstate SC. 3) There will be significant snow in KY, TN, NC, VA, WV, and MD. 4) Thunderstorms are possible in southern Georgia, SC and FL by Monday late night. Image Animation is From Short Term Canadian Model. The storm is just getting within Sight. The Southern Low in Texas will become the Main Storm, but it's track isn't certain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Has there ever been thunder ice storm? I would not want to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In the down time, here's a snippet from GSP with our major ice storm in February last year. That cold air damming event had them guessing right up until the event was underway... Latest GSP disco. Says it all: AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM get's a bad rap but look at it how did for todays mini-coastal that is affecting eastern NC. Just compared it to the GFS/CMC/Euro and by far was the most accurate when comparing the 12z runs on Tuesday. Still think the Euro/EPS will verify better for this Monday/Tuesday deal but just saying. You know.....the NAM did the best inside 48 hrs with last Feb's storm and this past Jan. storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That is really shocking to hear if that is what he said. In fact, that might be the first time i've ever heard of him saying models are too cold in a cad situation. Considering the setup i find it nearly impossible that is what he's really thinking. Maybe someone hijacked his computer anywho, speaking of cold..18z rgem sure is. 20s for highs in most of the carolinas sunday as well as maybe even extreme ne ga...also of note is it has precip already into extreme northern alabama by 18z. i was wondering that too lol - he nailed the colder temps in dec 05 so if he thinks they are too cold that is a huge shocker the temps on that map are really cold - if they verify in the 20s with precip it should be interesting lol. with the models all over the place, i may just give up and wait til i see how cold it is and how low the dewpoints are late sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gefs looked flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gefs looked flat. Well, the members are all over the place. A few cut west of the mountains and a few are really far south. It's hard to say anything definitive in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 One more post to show just how much things can change.... In the February 2015 storm. Northeast Georgia got clobbered with freezing rain. The upstate of SC was cold enough to stay mainly sleet with surface temps in the upper 20's. It was one heck of a CAD event. 42 hours before the event, this is what the ukmet showed. Would anyone guess that northeast Georgia gets hammered with freezing rain looking at that map? What about a strong CAD wedge? There's no high pressure progged on this ukmet map, lol. FYI, lots of other models where taking the surface low in a similar direction. (the ukie wasn't on an island with this solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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