griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is kind of back to its frontal passage look, though it brings decent moisture through. Night and day different look from Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol... Gfs is a glorified frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is kind of back to its frontal passage look, though it brings decent moisture through. Night and day different look from Euroso at 72 hours we have either a frontal passage or a cutter that heads to Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What is it that keeps throwing models off, that they cannot come into agreement with what's going to happen, this close to the event? I can't figure out what's has the models so puzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 so at 72 hours we have either a frontal passage or a cutter that heads to Quebec. Your kicker wave has become a major player. Go back 2 days ago and look at a run, and it's nowhere to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol... Gfs is a glorified frontal passage. The ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What is it that keeps throwing models off, that they cannot come into agreement with what's going to happen, this close to the event? I can't figure out what's has the models so puzzled Hopefully someone corrects me if I am wrong, but multiple pieces of northern stream energy being modeled with a weak southern stream energy. I am sure I will get killed for this but Euro has never been great with northern stream energy, NAM just did a bang up job with todays, so..... Lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 And the zipper low and frontal passage come back into play with this run and even the nam at the end. LOL Well this has just been a fantastic few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What is it that keeps throwing models off, that they cannot come into agreement with what's going to happen, this close to the event? I can't figure out what's has the models so puzzled My thought here is that the movement of larger ridges / troughs are much easier for the models to handle. Small waves in fast moving northern stream flow are much more difficult for the models to produce consistent results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hopefully someone corrects me if I am wrong, but multiple pieces of northern stream energy being modeled with a weak southern stream energy. I am sure I will get killed for this but Euro has never been great with northern stream energy, NAM just did a bang up job with todays, so..... Lot of moving parts. Yep, this is right in the GFS's wheelhouse really....of course, it is varying wildly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, this is right in the GFS's wheelhouse really I don't know what to think, I usually try and hug the worst/least wintery solution, it usually verifies, ie Euro/EPS. But, when looking at the multiple pieces of northern stream energy and the weak southern piece and taken into account all the global bias's, hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hopefully someone corrects me if I am wrong, but multiple pieces of northern stream energy being modeled with a weak southern stream energy. I am sure I will get killed for this but Euro has never been great with northern stream energy, NAM just did a bang up job with todays, so..... Lot of moving parts. I agree about the NAM as I said last night the last storm it did well here for my area. It has been consistent last few runs. I would not be afraid to go with its solution for Monday, just not sure if it could be used without a blend of possibly the GFS or CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs is all in on the follow up kicker wave. I'm sure we get a different solution at 0z. I think this ends up close to the ukie/cmc in the end. The cmc has had the most run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Robert just did a big and very interesting write up on his site!!! All hail my break out etc....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Robert just did a big and very interesting write up on his site!!! All hail my break out etc....................... What's his thoughts for us that is not on his website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't know what to think, I usually try and hug the worst/least wintery solution, it usually verifies, ie Euro/EPS. But, when looking at the multiple pieces of northern stream energy and the weak southern piece and taken into account all the global bias's, hmmmm. Hard to get a read on temperatures too. Just considering the Euro, a few days ago it was showing a high temp of 21 in CLT for Sunday. Today's run has it up to 34. The airmass is still cold and dry, but it's not as stout as it was showing before - we see that moderation a lot. On the flip side, models can underdo temps if precip gets in and damming is established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Robert just did a big and very interesting write up on his site!!! All hail my break out etc.......................go on... Do we get a snow bomb or rain bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 go on... Do we get a snow bomb or rain bomb? This is all I'm gonna share, he may put it out to public later? Don't want to make him mad. lol That would open the door for dynamic Thundersnow in eastern TN, sw VA and western NC I think, possibly even northern GA if the really wrapped up European were to occur. Temps are borderline aloft at the height of the dynamics of the storm in and around the Southern Appalachians and I won't rule out thundersnow, thundersleet to the northwest of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is all I'm gonna share, he may put it out to public later? Don't want to make him mad. lol That would open the door for dynamic Thundersnow in eastern TN, sw VA and western NC I think, possibly even northern GA if the really wrapped up European were to occur. Temps are borderline aloft at the height of the dynamics of the storm in and around the Southern Appalachians and I won't rule out thundersnow, thundersleet to the northwest of the low track. Very interesting, especially basing that off the Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Matt's video will be interesting in the am. This has been fun no matter what happens. He doesn't usually do videos on the weekends does he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What's his thoughts for us that is not on his website? to much confusion to make a definitive call yet. Definitely not sold on a big hit for the upstate........yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is all I'm gonna share, he may put it out to public later? Don't want to make him mad. lol That would open the door for dynamic Thundersnow in eastern TN, sw VA and western NC I think, possibly even northern GA if the really wrapped up European were to occur. [/size]Temps are borderline aloft at the height of the dynamics of the storm in and around the Southern Appalachians and I won't rule out [/size]thundersnow, thundersleet to the northwest of the low track.[/size] That would suggest the northern track...west of the apps. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That would suggest the northern track...west of the apps. Right? I don't think that's what he's thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That would suggest the northern track...west of the apps. Right? I think the more southern track, Jason on WLOS just on channel 13 said the low was going over the mtns. which would change the snow to freezing rain but as the storm passes it will go back to snow, I don't see the L pressure coming up into the wedge of very cold air. I think it will stay south going thru the middle of Ga. and SC. off the NC coast. Still maybe a I-20 to I-95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just looking at my local point and click forecast for the triad i see a steady 30 degree high and 30 degree low all of Monday. That would surely seem to indicate a deeply entrenched CAD situation that wont erode until the LP has passed. Someone posted some CAD maps earlier in the thread that looked pretty stout as well. I'll cross my fingers on this one but cant help but think this is looking suspiciously more like a zr event for much of Monday afternoon across central NC. Especially if the Doc is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is all I'm gonna share, he may put it out to public later? Don't want to make him mad. lol That would open the door for dynamic Thundersnow in eastern TN, sw VA and western NC I think, possibly even northern GA if the really wrapped up European were to occur. Temps are borderline aloft at the height of the dynamics of the storm in and around the Southern Appalachians and I won't rule out thundersnow, thundersleet to the northwest of the low track. I'm kind of at a loss at this write up from Robert. This type of solution seems to be based off the Euro which is a torch as it gets wound up. Also, his FB thoughts from yesterday favored the flatter wave scenario (the non-Euro scenario) which is kind of gaining some traction. Having said all that, it's his forecast thoughts, and they could be correct in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hard to get a read on temperatures too. Just considering the Euro, a few days ago it was showing a high temp of 21 in CLT for Sunday. Today's run has it up to 34. The airmass is still cold and dry, but it's not as stout as it was showing before - we see that moderation a lot. On the flip side, models can underdo temps if precip gets in and damming is established. Was looking at that too, but Monday early morning temps are in mid-20's with single digit DP's...yikes. If the finger of overrunning shifts south then it could get ugly but models right now have it focused more NW. So we shall see just how much precip we have before early Monday evening, CLT looks to wedge a little better and more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm kind of at a loss at this write up from Robert. This type of solution seems to be based off the Euro which is a torch as it gets wound up. Also, his FB thoughts from yesterday favored the flatter wave scenario (the non-Euro scenario) which is kind of gaining some traction. Having said all that, it's his forecast thoughts, and they could be correct in the end. he said he felt both the NAM and GGEM were too cold on temps.....surprised me as well, based on following him during CAD events for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Was looking at that too, but Monday early morning temps are in mid-20's with single digit DP's...yikes. If the finger of overrunning shifts south then it could get ugly but models right now have it focused more NW. So we shall see just how much precip we have before early Monday evening, CLT looks to wedge a little better and more QPF. And as long as precip is fallen I don't see how temps at surface can rise with the precip locking in and insitu-Cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just looking at my local point and click forecast for the triad i see a steady 30 degree high and 30 degree low all of Monday. That would surely seem to indicate a deeply entrenched CAD situation that wont erode until the LP has passed. Someone posted some CAD maps earlier in the thread that looked pretty stout as well. I'll cross my fingers on this one but cant help but think this is looking suspiciously more like a zr event for much of Monday afternoon across central NC. Especially if the Doc is to be believed. It's really hard to unlock in-situ CAD where we're at. If we start out with temperatures in the low 20s, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get above freezing until it's over. The NW Piedmont is often one of the last places to go above freezing, even slower to do so than many of the foothills regions along the escarpment. Examples: The good thing is that with surface temperatures in the 20s and 925 mb temps cold, at least initially, we might be looking at more sleet, as things currently stand, IMO (we'll see, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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