RubiksDestroyer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That looks like a weird trajectory, but NAM has consistantly shown it. Is precip moving due East or SE from the plains? If I remember right, the moisture that moved across the mountains today came from a very similar trajectory... May be wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One of the initial bands of moisture looks to go through KY and VA on this run of the NAM. Whoever benefits from that will pick up an additional 1-2 inches.I think that would be farther south like the Globals have shown. Anyways, no cutter on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think that would be farther south like the Globals have shown. Anyways, no cutter on the nam The a Low over Missouri, sliding SE... perhaps that's prevent the cutting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this happens (Atlantic moisture stream), this is going to cause some forecast problems: Agreed. Almost looks like it's trying to pop a coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The a Low over Missouri, sliding SE... perhaps that's prevent the cutting?It's strong with that feature so it knocks down the height field front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Much less precip on 18z NAM through Monday evening (7pm) in CAD areas. GSO goes from 1" precip to .3". Still a cold run with good track, just not as much qpf. At this point I'm more worried about Euro solution, so good to see NAM still showing weaker further south system with good CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So GSP gets above freezing (33) at 0Z Tuesday, per the NAM. That's the same as 12Z, but it's definitely a little colder further north of Greenvile/in part of WNC (more areas at/below freezing). I don't know if it's enough to be considered a "trend," but it's interesting. 12Z GFS looks identical (referring to temps only). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this happens (Atlantic moisture stream), this is going to cause some forecast problems: You are slowly getting sucked in Shawn....you better stick with your aforementioned Euro/UKMet blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Agreed. Almost looks like it's trying to pop a coastal... It goes on to do something like that off the coast of Virginia, well tries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You are slowly getting sucked in Shawn....you better stick with your aforementioned Euro/UKMet blend To be fair, the ARPEGE model is showing something similar off the Atlantic coast. In fact, as a whole it's not far off the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still a ways to go but anyone throwing out the EURO will do so at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 near the end of the run nam has more interaction with the polar jet. could be a compromise in the making. Well see what 0z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 #youdidn'tseewhatididthere #geopoliticalhumor To the Canadian and the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Here is a good read, even if you are outside of the Georgia area. Kind of interesting they are going with the NAM vs global guidance. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/Briefings/20160212_2pm_WinterwxBriefing.pdf Here are some highlights from the paper: Confidence increasing for a Significant Ice Event (> 0.25”) across northeast Georgia late Sunday Night through Monday Models have been flip-flopping a bit (cold-warm-cold) Try not to get caught up in the “run-to-run” changes Still 2-3 days out Good news! We’re getting into the shorter-range / high-resolution model window (0-84 hours) Have better handle on shallow cold air/wedge events Trending south – will help to maintain shallow cold air “wedge” across NE GA a bit longer Rain could mix with or briefly changeover to snow before ending with “wrap-around” / backside of Storm System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM get's a bad rap but look at it how did for todays mini-coastal that is affecting eastern NC. Just compared it to the GFS/CMC/Euro and by far was the most accurate when comparing the 12z runs on Tuesday. Still think the Euro/EPS will verify better for this Monday/Tuesday deal but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 RAH discussion was kind of difficult to interpret. I guess snow/wintry mix for wake county sunday night into monday morning before transitioning to all rain by afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 RAH discussion was kind of difficult to interpret. I guess snow/wintry mix for wake county sunday night into monday morning before transitioning to all rain by afternoon? Looks like they're riding the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 RAH discussion was kind of difficult to interpret. I guess snow/wintry mix for wake county sunday night into monday morning before transitioning to all rain by afternoon? Check out the one from GSP. they mention several times how low the confidence is. I totally get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still a ways to go but anyone throwing out the EURO will do so at your own peril. The Euro is pretty much out on its own right now, so one Model going against 3 or4, I'd be willing to toss the Euro and not think twice about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not to mention possible flooding concerns and thunder on Tuesday maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not to mention possible flooding concerns and thunder on Tuesday maybe? I will be very surprised if we have thunderstorms on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncweathergirl Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM get's a bad rap but look at it how did for todays mini-coastal that is affecting eastern NC. Just compared it to the GFS/CMC/Euro and by far was the most accurate when comparing the 12z runs on Tuesday. Still think the Euro/EPS will verify better for this Monday/Tuesday deal but just saying. Just a lurker but the NAM was the best with the Jan storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Euro is pretty much out on its own right now, so one Model going against 3 or4, I'd be willing to toss the Euro and not think twice about it 12z para gfs looks a lot like euro. Low tracks right over mountains. Doesn't seem likely, but regular gfs is just east of that track. Top top two major models not really on our side. Both around a qtr inch of qpf in CAD areas that would be frozen/freezing, but both have heavy rain on back side that would likely cause flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just trying to figure out if roads would be messy in the triangle monday morning. Looks like a high likelihood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 From RAHs afternoon briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Thinking the same thing here - Wife has a local 11:00 Dr. appt., so I'll be rooting for an earlier changeover. Currently, the local forecast says: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 11am, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS coming in a little flatter with the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z CMC is a nice hit.. I mean it's a pounding!!! Snow then a lot of ice best I can tell from maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is substantially flatter with the wave this run, but it's still warming the wedge through the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS coming in a little flatter with the wave GFS is substantially flatter with the wave this run, but it's still warming the wedge through the storm Barely a surface reflection. Just comparing the last several runs, the consistency is amazing Can the EPS and GFS be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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