lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Follows Op, winter storm cancel Because of one model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Because of one model? I wouldn't bet Bricks lunch money against Euro and EPS! But hug the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the ARPEGE (why are we doing this?) verified, Upstate SC gets absolutely rocked. I'm willing to bet it's a historic sleet/ice up that way. Very heavy "frozen" precipitation. It's cold enough to get CAE proper in the game for a big chunk of the event. With that said, I don't trust it. The closest I have followed it was with the last storm, and it's precipitation shield was too far West. Can not remember how it did with temps, but there was no CAD to compare it to anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the ARPEGE (why are we doing this?) verified, Upstate SC gets absolutely rocked. I'm willing to bet it's a historic Sleet/Ice up that way. Very heavy "frozen" precipitation. It's cold enough to get CAE proper in the game for a big chunk of the event. It has its friends including the NAM and Canadian so I wouldn't toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the ARPEGE (why are we doing this?) verified, Upstate SC gets absolutely rocked. I'm willing to bet it's a historic sleet/ice up that way. Very heavy "frozen" precipitation. It's cold enough to get CAE proper in the game for a big chunk of the event. With that said, I don't trust it. The closest I have followed it was with the last storm, and it's precipitation shield was too far West. you know why you are doing it. You are a snow weenie like the rest of us. Viva la france Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nice update from NWS Peachtree City for the NE GA crowd: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/Briefings/20160212_2pm_WinterwxBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Here is your ARPEGE image, during heavy precipitation. I circled the area of concern I alluded to above: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the ARPEGE (why are we doing this?) verified, Upstate SC gets absolutely rocked. I'm willing to bet it's a historic sleet/ice up that way. Very heavy "frozen" precipitation. It's cold enough to get CAE proper in the game for a big chunk of the event. With that said, I don't trust it. The closest I have followed it was with the last storm, and it's precipitation shield was too far West. Can not remember how it did with temps, but there was no CAD to compare it to anyways. it was off 50 miles with the precip but it locked in and stayed there several days out on the track main 5H players. Tell you I was impressed. Interested to see how it grades out on this one with the big picture stuff not so much micro climate features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What in the world is the Arpege model? A uk model upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 What in the world is the Arpege model? A uk model upgrade? French model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EPS report anyone? Per storm/TW: Heres the spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM even faster... has virga in here by 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 which model handled todays snow/sleet the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What in the world is the Arpege model? A uk model upgrade? It is a model Lookout showed to us a while back. It's ran by the French, and has the name of a French perfume (not kidding). In very little research, I discovered that it is interconnected with ECMWF data assimilation, parameters and has been in use since 1993 (or even before). After they joined forces (shared data) with ECMWF, the forecast skill increased exponentially in their region. Basically, it's new for us to be using and we are not quite sure how well it performs. I think this CAD situation is a great test to see how it handles the bigger picture instead of just precipitation location. I should note, that Ryan Maue has the European zones from the model on his website. I asked him about USA, and he might get around to it. Data is hit or miss or something like that. Also, it handled the Wintry precipitation today okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 which model handled todays snow/sleet the best? The GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EPS report anyone? Has LP systems from the the southern tip of Florida all the way to the Great Lakes. It's all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM even faster... has virga in here by 18z Sunday. I like the looks of the overrunning setup the NAM has been advertising in recent runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Per storm/TW: Heres the spread Consistency goes down fast between members after that. Lows all over the place on east coast among 50 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Little weaker HP on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It should surrender to the other models any minute now. French model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I like the looks of the overrunning setup the NAM has been advertising in recent runs.. Interesting to note is the interaction with the Atlantic. Literally pulling moisture into the Southern SC zones. That could bust a forecast quickly if that occurs. You can see it well on the 12KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It should surrender to the other models any minute now. To the Canadian and the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Has LP systems from the the southern tip of Florida all the way to the Great Lakes. It's all over the place. The lows over the Great Lakes would be from the separate, upstream kicker system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM even faster... has virga in here by 18z Sunday. That looks like a weird trajectory, but NAM has consistantly shown it. Is precip moving due East or SE from the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 which model handled todays snow/sleet the best? Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm in and out haven't been able to see much weather action....have today's run been better for sc area but are we still just looking at a ice to rain event Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One of the initial bands of moisture looks to go through KY and VA on this run of the NAM. Whoever benefits from that will pick up an additional 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think we're getting Nam'd on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That looks like a weird trajectory, but NAM has consistantly shown it. Is precip moving due East or SE from the plains? That has a classic look to it. Some of our better storms have that sort of tongue of moisture that develops well out and to the east of the main storm. Helps to lock in the cold (as others have said). IMO we have to have that or else we are hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this happens (Atlantic moisture stream), this is going to cause some forecast problems: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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