superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 With 925 mb so cold, I'd think there would be quite a bit of sleet rather than ZR (with ZR on the periphery). We tend to positive bust on sleet rather than ZR a lot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Agreed...front end snow then a sig. ice storm. Are we expecting strong winds as this moves out? I sure hope not...winds on the hills of an ice storm can be devastating. I never will forget the ice storm/wind damage on Paris Mountain about 10 years ago. It looked like a war zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's not the cad. It's due to the faster wave on its heels and the energy diving into the backside of the trough later. But a LP is not gonna turn right into a strong wedge of cold air. It would have to go further south the turn and stay southof the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the canadian still doesn't have surface temps responding at all after precip starts despite the low dewpoints/wetbulbs. By 12z, temps are in the mid 20s over the carolinas to upper 20s in northeast ga with dewpoints only slightly rising from the single digits at 06z to only the mid teens by 12z...which gives wetbulbs generally in the range of the low 20s in the upstate to mid to upper 20s in northeast ga. So anything it shows during the day is likely quite a bit too warm...especially since the low track is even further south/better. On some occasions you don't see a massive drop in surface temps when precip starts if the cold layer is very shallow (been burned by that before ) but as you can see here that through 12z it extends all the way to 925mb initially before retreating a bit by 18z. canadian looks like it has precip arriving mid morning. .Before nam warms up 950mb temps, it has even colder temps at that level. So I expect a decent temp drop after precip arrives. Man that is a stout wedge! Models tend to under estimate the strength of the actual wedge (as depicted above) also and move it out too fast. Somebody (me) gonna get a nasty ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAVGEM usually doesn't do temps very well but it's showing a nice wedge still through Tuesday morning. Great trends today from CLT to GSO and points west, assuming you want a bad ice storm with some front end snow. Thanks, Pack. Wouldn't take much to move the needle on temps east of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 But a LP is not gonna turn right into a strong wedge of cold air. It would have to go further south the turn and stay southof the wedge.sure it would. If the older runs were to verify the amped up faster North solution would have already eroded the wedge with waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All global models have trended south in the 12z runs. I think their will be some more correction before a track with high confidence can be assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doc is a cutter. Deepening low in northern AL at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doc is a cutter. Deepening low in northern AL at 84 So Doc is on an island by himself? Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is not going to bust inside 84 hours. It's not going to shift from a apps runner to something running up 95 or the coast. Get your umbrellas ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Doc is a cutter. Deepening low in northern AL at 84 at 72 it was further south with less interaction with the polar jet like all the other globals have trended towards. Surface is lagging behind. Edit at 96 its deff further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 sure it would. If the older runs were to verify the amped up faster North solution would have already eroded the wedge with waa. Agree, just like Euro. Amped up, negative tilt wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is not going to bust inside 84 hours. It's not going to shift from a apps runner to something running up 95 or the coast. Get your umbrellas ready. But every other model will switch to an apps cutter? Euro is not the king it once was. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is not going to bust inside 84 hours. It's not going to shift from a apps runner to something running up 95 or the coast. Get your umbrellas ready.lol... I have seen it fold inside 84 hours from a Miller a to a cutter. It busted bad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro hasn't been consistent all year. The last storm it was almost last to finally come around after jumping from run to run. It is the King but not like it has been. Canadian and now the French have been more consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nothing but a bunch of negative nancies on here it appears. Euro is an outlier and should be discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You could argue that the Euro made some baby steps, but it's still a terrible result. Strong LP right up I-85. I would say the Euro can be overamped at times, so maybe we should consider that. Regardless, the Euro is on an island by itself, so while it certainly throws caution into the wind, I'm not sure you can take it over every single other model out there right now. My question would be whether the Euro's bias of holding energy back could be applicable here (or is that even a thing anymore?)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is not going to bust inside 84 hours. It's not going to shift from a apps runner to something running up 95 or the coast. Get your umbrellas ready.While it is the best model in the world, and very well could be right, its run to run consistency over the last 4-5 runs does not exactly inspire confidence. It very well could move further south tonight. Wait and see mode for me. Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 850mb at hr84. 1st image is CMC, 2nd is Euro. Shows the closed low over TN on the Euro with strong winds which breaks down the wedge. Broad, weaker flow on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 But now the Euro is pretty consistent 3 runs in a row. When that happens, especially at this shorter range it is very hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 But now the Euro is pretty consistent 3 runs in a row. When that happens, especially at this shorter range it is very hard to bet against it. This year and quite a bit of last year, not that hard at all to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 But now the Euro is pretty consistent 3 runs in a row. When that happens, especially at this shorter range it is very hard to bet against it. Consistently bad, yes, but I'm not sure it's really been consistent as a whole. Yesterday's 12z run had the LP blazing through northern West Virginia en route to Rochester, NY and eventually central Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Consistently bad, yes, but I'm not sure it's really been consistent as a whole. Yesterday's 12z run had the LP blazing through northern West Virginia. Thats true the EURO has fluctuated pretty wildly the past 3 days..still hard to bet against at this range, lets see what the EPS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nothing but a bunch of negative nancies on here it appears. Euro is an outlier and should be discarded. Some people think there's only ONE model and it can't be wrong. It will be proved wrong on this one is bet. Also still plenty of time wouldn't be surprised if Euro doesn't start lining up with others by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is probably a good middle of the road solution right now. Wedge holds for a bit, then breaks down for the most part during 2nd half of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Some people think there's only ONE model and it can't be wrong. It will be proved wrong on this one is bet. Also still plenty of time wouldn't be surprised if Euro doesn't start lining up with others by Monday. 11th weather forecasting commandment--is never bet against the euro and its ensembles when ukmet alignment is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Consistently bad, yes, but I'm not sure it's really been consistent as a whole. Yesterday's 12z run had the LP blazing through northern West Virginia en route to Rochester, NY and eventually central Quebec. Agree. It broke the low in half and had it shooting up the apps. LMAO Even frank of accuwx took a shot at it and called it wrong yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 11th weather forecasting commandment--is never bet against the euro and its ensembles when ukmet alignment is there. Euro run may be correct in the end, but UKMet isn't with it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro run may be right in the end, but UKMet isn't with it right now That's true but if they come together bet we get that (or almost) that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Euro has fluctuated some (not "wildly") and has not shown a weak low going south of I-20- all were some form of cutter. So I doubt that it switches to that different a solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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