Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[Cheeznado]

 

 

edited..correction...

 

The parent surface high moved from the ohio valley to off shore the mid atlantic really fast was very weak.  The parent high didn't stay over the mid atlantic/damming position but for around 12 hours.

 

The reason i say this reminds me of this one though is low track, similar temps/dewpoints, there was not a strong flow at the surface with it (winds were only 5 to 10 knots..at most) and a parent high that had already shifted off shore shortly after the arrival of precip..yet thanks to the wedge the high was able to maintain itself over the interior longer and helped the wedge from warming or scouring out as fast. Also to point out that even with less than ideal circumstances, if the air is cold and dry enough it can over come them and the wedge can hold strong

 

I would still be very surprised if ITP Atlanta gets much if any freezing rain with this system. One difference is in 2000 there was no real significant short wave coming in from the west, this time there will be one.

It does look like NE GA will see more ZR than I was expecting yesterday, but I doubt it will be nearly as impactful as in 2000 (I hope not, I had no power for days).

[WeatherHawk]

I agree but this will cause for a he$$ of an Ice storm for anyone in the upstate.

IMO that's what we'll probably see in central NC...front end snow to ice...but it's still too far out to call.  Hopefully, we'll all have a better picture by late Saturday and early Sunday

[griteater]

Is it a reform?  Or a consolidated system that tracks through the south?

It kind of consolidates in S Bama, then runs to Charleston and Hatteras - it's a steady track.  Haven't seen h5, but it has the look of a flatter wave solution

[UpStateCAD]

CMC quickly erodes the 32F line to the Northern SC zones/Upstate.  About the same around these parts with a tiny bit of freezing drizzle before the switch to rain in CAE... for those wondering.

agree Shawn.  the wedge is much weaker this go round, for the GSP it puts us above freezing around 6 hours earlier.  Freezing line does not make it near as far into NE Ga

[strongwxnc]

*Banter*

The cliff diving thread is great and should be what we call the SE Panic room thread.

*Banter*

 

Should somebody go into the cliff diving thread and tell them that the NAM/GFS/UKMET/Canadian all bring winter weather to the SE??  On second thought, lets see what DR. NO says first.

[Cold Rain]

It kind of consolidates in S Bama, then runs to Charleston and Hatteras - it's a steady track.  Haven't seen h5, but it has the look of a flatter wave solution

 

Thanks!

[McDowell_Weather]

I never did see the low plowing through the piedmont, which it still possibly can. If the CMC verifys, Woodlawn were in for one h*ll of a storm, to much ice for my liking. Interested in what the king has to say with the GFS going south at 12z. It's flipped back in forth quite a bit the last few runs. Hopefully it gets more consistent the next few runs. I wouldn't mind a 1-95 runner just prefer it a little east of 95.

[Shawn]

Like many are saying, with the CMC track, I am not buying the fast erosion of the CAD in this situation.  While it may be too warm for CAE proper, the Northern Midlands are well in the game as modeling is moving the high out too quickly.  Also, the high is modeled at around 1032mb over the NE, and again there are ensemble members with 1035+.  Some have 1040+.  If the 1040+ verified, people are in trouble.

 

Throughout the year, I constantly read in my forecast discussions "adjusted max temps due to wedge conditions persisting" type talk.  this is no different.

[franklin NCwx]

Who has the ukie?

[packfan98]

Who has the ukie?

Word on the street is the track is similar to the Canadian and SE of the 0z ukie run and current GFS that just came out.  I haven't seen it though.

[WeatherHawk]

This type of track (IF the precip gets in quickly enough) makes much more sense to me than a low straight through the Piedmont.

 

Is it a reform?  Or a consolidated system that tracks through the south?

 

I'm now dizzy after looking at Lookout's maps!

Grace Slick's (ZR pun) background from singing White Rabbit (SN pun)....seriously looks like a nasty ice storm coming

[Shawn]

UK has the weaker low coming through South-Central GA from these crappy maps.  1040HP off the coast, but the idea is a stronger HP anyways.  Probably a good hit for CAD areas when better maps come.

[UpStateCAD]

I would think the operational runs should be in their strongest period today through early Sunday with their higher resolution.  Of course the ensembles are still of value as they will depict other possible solutions but they are run with a lower resolution and will begin to become less likely.

[griteater]

Hard to tell with the early crude maps on the UKMet, but the sfc low should be in the vicinity of C or S GA to Columbia at 96 - I know that's broad, but that's just all we got with the maps at this point

[franklin NCwx]

Trend of the day is much less phasing and weaker storm. This will lead to a faster onset with less waa, someone is gonna get a nasty ice storm.

Looks like the French model is the new king.

[burrel2]

UK has the weaker low coming through South-Central GA from these crappy maps.  1040HP off the coast, but the idea is a stronger HP anyways.  Probably a good hit for CAD areas when better maps come.

 

 

Ukmet is going crazy with that trailing wave over Missouri Monday evening/tuesday morning. I have to think that helps keep our low weaker and more east/west oriented with the precip shield. 

[JoshM]

12z CMC is a thing of beauty... Now that's a wedge my friends

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I never did see the low plowing through the piedmont, which it still possibly can. If the CMC verifys, Woodlawn were in for one h*ll of a storm, to much ice for my liking. Interested in what the king has to say with the GFS going south at 12z. It's flipped back in forth quite a bit the last few runs. Hopefully it gets more consistent the next few runs. I wouldn't mind a 1-95 runner just prefer it a little east of 95.

 

 

Yes it's looking like a front end thump of snow then over to a lot of ice around here on the midday models today.  Im like you buddy, I like my power to be on.

[Cold Rain]

Grace Slick's (ZR pun) background from singing White Rabbit (SN pun)....seriously looks like a nasty ice storm coming

 

I hope not!

[Shawn]

12z CMC is a thing of beauty... Now that's a wedge my friends

 

 

 

And just imagine, that is still under-done.  I would doubt CLT is 33 at that point.

[griteater]

Ukmet is going crazy with that trailing wave over Missouri Monday evening/tuesday morning. I have to think that helps keep our low weaker and more east/west oriented with the precip shield. 

Yeah, I did notice that too burrel with the trailing wave - franklin's been on that feature

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, I did notice that too burrel with the trailing wave - franklin's been on that feature

that kicker is saving us from seeing a cutter.

[Cold Rain]

Navgem and Frenchie up next?

[BullCityWx]

I don't think the cold ground by Monday can be overstated.

[burrel2]

If this winds up being a weaker wave that tracks up I-95. Credit will have to be given to the Canadian. It's the only model that hasn't flopped around like a fish out of water over the last 3 days.

 

Also, if we get a Canadian type low track. I'm starting to think the ice-storm will be devastating for the upstate. It's not cold enough at 925mb for sleet, but the canadian only warms 850's up to the +2 range when the heaviest band moves through.

 

Considering how cold we start, I would be surprised if we have warmed up above 30 or 31 degree's by the time the back edge of precip gets here.

[superjames1992]

I don't think the cold ground by Monday can be overstated.

Yep. It will make the ice that much worse.

[CaryWx]

I don't think the cold ground by Monday can be overstated.

Agreed.  We may go above freezing eventually but we'll have Siberian soil for sure.

[Shawn]

That's not CLT, the entirety of Mecklenburg county is under the wedge.

 

Good catch, I just noticed I was looking too far East.   Map chaos in my brain.

[Lookout]

I would still be very surprised if ITP Atlanta gets much if any freezing rain with this system. One difference is in 2000 there was no real significant short wave coming in from the west, this time there will be one.

It does look like NE GA will see more ZR than I was expecting yesterday, but I doubt it will be nearly as impactful as in 2000 (I hope not, I had no power for days).

Yeah atlanta itself, as always, will be on the edge i imagine just like with that one.  I'm much more confident, as usual lol, that areas from the northern and eastern burbs on up will be impacted a lot more. A lot will depend on if precip can arrive early enough and remain steady enough through the day. 

 

Just for kicks, Here is a look at surface observations on jan 22 at 18z, and then 23/0z that evening. Note how weak the surface flow is...the cold air advection had already stopped before the precip had even arrived so all that was left was the residual cold pool but that was enough.

 

Precip had ended for the most part by 09/10z but temps mostly stayed at or below freezing till then as you can see by the 10z observations on the 23rd.

Date: 01/22/00 18 UTC
ID     TIME   T  TD  RH DIR SPD GST ALT SLP VIS CIL  COV WX  MAX MIN  PR6 PR24 SC
KVAD   1755  41  36  81 150   4     016 213   7 100  SCT                         
72207  1753  46  19  34                 225  10 120 8/8      46  24             
72320  1812  28  27  93   0   0               5  30 8/8 F                       
KMGE   1755  36  10  35  90   8     012 020  10  60  OVC                         
72217  1753  39  20  46 130   4         216  10  75 8/8      39  30             
KGVL   1753  27  21  78 100   7     016 222 1.2  25  OVC S-   32  27 0.00        
KCSG   1756  43  16  33 110   6     012      10  70  OVC                         
72218  1753  39  15  37   0   0         226  10 120 8/8      40  27             
KFFC   1753  36  13  38 130   6     010 204  10  70  OVC      37  30             
72219  1753  36  13  38 100   8         209  10  75 8/8      36  30 0.00        
KFTY   1753  36  10  35 110   6     012      10  70  OVC                         
KPDK   1753  36   9  32 130   9     012      10  70  OVC                         
72311  1753  36  13  38  90   6         223  10  75 8/8      35  29             
KLSF   1755  46  21  36 120   7     013 204   7  70  OVC                         
KSSI   1750  48  30  49 130   5     018 220   7 180  OVC      49  30             
KAMG   1750  45  14  29   0   0     017       7  85  OVC      45  27             
KABY   1751  50  21  32 150   9     013      10 150  BKN                         
KSVN   1755  46  21  36 190   4     019 222   7  85  BKN                         
KVDI   1810  45  19  36   0   0     019      10  80  BKN                         
KWRB   1758  39  19  44 130   5     015      10  75  OVC                         
KDNN   1800  30  27  86 200   6     011      10  25  OVC                         
KBQK   1755  50  28  43 160   5     019      10      CLR                         
KDNL   1753  38  14  37  70   3     019 226  10  80  OVC      38  29             
KCCO   1800  36  18  47 100   3     010      10  75  OVC                         
	

Date: 01/22/00 23 UTC
ID     TIME   T  TD  RH DIR SPD GST ALT SLP VIS CIL  COV WX  MAX MIN  PR6 PR24 SC
KVAD   2255  55  27  33 130   4     009 190   7 200  BKN                         
KSAV   2253  46  27  46  90   7     015      10  85  OVC                         
KRMG   2253  30  28  93 130   6     005       4  32  OVC                         
KMGE   2255  30  28  93 100   9  20 006 008   5  38  OVC H                       
KMCN   2253  41  19  41  80   5     012      10  75  OVC                         
KGVL   2253  27  26  96  80  11     010 201   5  44  OVC                         
KCSG   2256  45  21  39  90  10     005      10  90  OVC                         
KAGS   2253  39  19  44  60   5     015      10  80  OVC                         
KFFC   2253  32  26  79   0   0     006 188  10  40  OVC                         
KATL   2253  32  30  93   0   6     006       3  35  OVC R                       
KFTY   2253  32  27  80 110   6     006       3  35  OVC ZR-                     
KPDK   2253  30  28  93 100   7     006       4  35  OVC ZR-                     
KAHN   2253  30  27  86  70   7     012       7  55  OVC ZR                      
KLSF   2255  50  25  37 130   7     005 178   7  80  BKN                         
KVLD   2250  54  27  35 180   4     008 187   8 250  BKN                         
KSSI   2250  48  39  71  70   4     013       7 180  BKN                         
KAMG   2250  48  25  40 110   4     010 188   7  90  BKN                         
KABY   2250  54  27  35   0   6     007      10 100  OVC                         
KSVN   2255  46  32  57 120   4     015 209   7  85  OVC                         
KVDI   2310  45  23  42  40   3     013      10 100  OVC                         
KWRB   2255  41  21  45  70   5     012      13  80  OVC                         
KBQK   2255  46  36  66  80   3     014      10      CLR                         
KDNL   2253  39  17  41  70   7     015 211  10  80  OVC                         
KCCO   2300  32  27  80 100   5     005      10  55  OVC                         
	

Date: 01/23/00 10 UTC
ID     TIME   T  TD  RH DIR SPD GST ALT SLP VIS CIL  COV WX  MAX MIN  PR6 PR24 SC
KVAD   0959  41  34  75 130   3     000 159   7 250  BKN                         
KSAV   0953  43  41  93   0   0     004      10      CLR                         
KRMG   0953  34  30  86   0   0     996       8                                  
KMCN   0953  37  37 100 130   5     996       5  14  OVC R                       
KGVL   0953  31  29  92   0   0     001 172   5   6  OVC                         
KCSG   1005  43  43 100  70   7     992       4  15  OVC H                       
KAGS   0953  36  34  93  20   3     003       5  28  OVC R                       
KFFC   0953  32  32 100   0   3     996 152   5   6  OVC                         
KATL   1008  32  32 100 100   6     997     2.5   4  OVC R+                      
KFTY   0953                                                                      
KPDK   0953  32  30  93   0   0     998     2.5   7  OVC ZR                      
KAHN   0953  32  28  86  40   4     002     2.0  28  OVC ZR-                     
KLSF   0955  48  46  93 130   5     993 138   7  30  OVC                         
KVLD   0950  45  37  76 210   3     000 159   8 150  BKN                         
KABY   0947  52  48  87 160   6     996       7  85  OVC                         
KSVN   0955  45  43  93  30   5     005 175   7  95  OVC                         
KVDI   1010  45  39  81 100   3     002      10  36  OVC                         
KWRB   0955  39  37  93 150   4     997       6  20  OVC R-                      
KDNN   1000  34  34 100   0   0     996       7  25  OVC                         
KBQK   0955  37  37 100   0   0     004       7      CLR                         
KDNL   0953  34  31  88 340   3     003 172   5   5  OVC R-                      
KCCO   1000  32  32 100  80   4     994       5   4  OVC                         
	

[franklin NCwx]

If this winds up being a weaker wave that tracks up I-95. Credit will have to be given to the Canadian. It's the only model that hasn't flopped around like a fish out of water over the last 3 days.

Also, if we get a Canadian type low track. I'm starting to think the ice-storm will be devastating for the upstate. It's not cold enough at 925mb for sleet, but the canadian only warms 850's up to the +2 range when the heaviest band moves through.

Considering how cold we start, I would be surprised if we have warmed up above 30 or 31 degree's by the time the back edge of precip gets here.

I agree, probably ends as light rain for an hour or two.