Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Trend a bit better for mountains, far NE SC and foothills for NC as low is weaker and farther south, Still not nearly enough for GA except far NE corner- temp on GFS up to 44 here by 00Z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wow, this had been quite the model watching storm and its still 3 days plus out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In some ways this system reminds me of the january 22-23rd ice storm of 2000...except conditions with that one were not ideal either. The departing high was much weaker, worse position and progressive...This high was only around 1025 to 1030mb and already moving had moved off shore the mid atlantic by the time precip arrived. (so winds were pretty light at the surface out of the NE), 850mb temps started similar to this one with 0c moving from ga to the nc/va border by the time it was over while warming to 6 to 8c over north ga by 12z of the 23rd, 925 mb temps went from 0c in ne ga when the precip started to several degrees above freezing overnight, and the precip didn't start until early to mid afternoon here in georgia. After morning lows around 29 to 31, the late arrival of precip allowed temps to warm into the mid to upper 30s...and dewpoints has risen into the teens after being in single digits earlier. But Despite what is less than ideal conditions there still was major ice accumulations across north ga, causing hundreds of thousands of power outages, and a lot of egg on a lot of local mets faces. With this system, **assuming we don't see a gfs/euro like track and timing** we have a much stronger high initially, better arrival time of precip, if it starts as early as the canadian, nam, french, and jma, we will have colder surface temps/wetbulbs at the start of it, and just like the 2000 storm precip will cool down the interior carolinas at the same time as north ga..thus helping to maintain easterly flow and causing the cold pool to be even more stubborn to dislodge or warm up. Again though if things played out with timing and surface low track like the 06z gfs, cooling/damming will be much less. One other thing to note is the gfs dewpoints. For whatever reason, the gfs warms dewpoints into the 20s over north ga/upstate by 12z despite no precip or response in dry air temperature. No other model is showing such a big rise in dewpoints without precip already starting. So that is something those should keep in mind when looking at the gfs as this obviously would mean much less evap cooling potential and would greatly reduce the cooling potential. Very good post and definitely some key things to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS with a solid front end thump for WNC foothills and mountains Looks like it remains snow for most of the event in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In some ways this system reminds me of the january 22-23rd ice storm of 2000...except conditions with that one were not ideal either. The departing high was much weaker, worse position and progressive...The 2000 high was only around 1025 to 1030mb and already was moving/ had moved off shore the mid atlantic by the time precip arrived. (so winds were pretty light at the surface out of the NE), 850mb temps started similar to this one with 0c moving from ga to the nc/va border by the time it was over while warming to 6 to 8c over north ga by 12z of the 23rd, 925 mb temps went from 0c in ne ga when the precip started to several degrees above freezing overnight, and the precip didn't start until early to mid afternoon here in georgia. After morning lows around 29 to 31, the late arrival of precip allowed temps to warm into the mid to upper 30s...and dewpoints has risen into the teens after being in single digits earlier. But Despite what is less than ideal conditions there still was major ice accumulations across north ga, causing hundreds of thousands of power outages, and a lot of egg on a lot of local mets faces. With this system, **assuming we don't see a gfs like track and timing** we have a much stronger high initially, better arrival time of precip, if it starts as early as the canadian, nam, french, and jma, we will have colder surface temps/wetbulbs at the start of it, and just like the 2000 storm precip will cool down the interior carolinas at the same time as north ga..thus helping to maintain easterly flow and causing the cold pool to be even more stubborn to dislodge or warm up. Again though if things played out with timing and surface low track like the 06z gfs, cooling/damming will be much less. One other thing to note is the gfs dewpoints. For whatever reason, the gfs warms dewpoints into the 20s over north ga/upstate by 12z despite no precip or response in dry air temperature. No other model is showing such a big rise in dewpoints without precip already starting. So that is something those should keep in mind when looking at the gfs as this obviously would mean much less evap cooling potential and would greatly reduce the cooling potential. Not the same really. In that case the surface high was much more locked into the east by a vortex in the Maritimes, not retreating way offshore like this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well, guess this will be a (mostly) cold rain for Atlanta. I know, there could be ZR early on, but once the temps rise heavily on Monday it'll be all rain. Which will melt the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Put me in the camp of thinking the low will wind up tracking from columbus, Ga, then up I-95. I just don't see this this thing plowing through the mountains/upstate when that initial finger of precip Monday morning should lock in a strong insitu-wedge, considering the temps/dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Expect the models to trend colder and slower with the warmer temps in CAD region. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still a nasty Ice storm for much of the upstate with maybe a quick inch or two of snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z has the low in Mexico Es lo largo de 3 días de distancia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Put me in the camp of thinking the low will wind up tracking from columbus, Ga, then up I-95. I just don't see this this thing plowing through the mountains/upstate when that initial finger of precip Monday morning should lock in a strong insitu-wedge, considering the temps/dewpoints. I agree but this will cause for a he$$ of an Ice storm for anyone in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not the same really. In that case the surface high was much more locked into the east by a vortex in the Maritimes, not retreating way offshore like this one will be. Screen Shot 2016-02-12 at 11.01.38 AM.png If you advance in time that vortex rockets north pretty fast, similar to what's progged for Monday. Also, there's been a trend in the modeling to back up a piece of the high into New York state Monday morning. If that can hang on a few more hours, and the wave be just a little bit flatter and thus faster... we would be talking about a lot more ice. Heck, take a look at today... no model really showed any type of high pressure in a CAD position, but if you look at mesoanalysis there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still a nasty Ice storm for much of the upstate with maybe a quick inch or two of snow on the front end. Better than it was. 12 hours ago, it was nothing but a cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Trend a bit better for mountains, far NE SC and foothills for NC as low is weaker and farther south, Still not nearly enough for GA except far NE corner- temp on GFS up to 44 here by 00Z Tues. what time is 00z on Tues ? FFC has the I-20 corridor pushing 60 tues afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Someone wake Shawn up please up so us SC folks can get an update. Modeling all over the place with temps and track around here. I am not feeling it for our back yards too much currently. We need precipitation getting here earlier. It's a race between the high sliding out and precipitation starting. Right now, not such good timing if you want ice/sleet. Those to our North are in a better position.. Upstate, NC, NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UKIE, Canadian, and Euro will be interesting. I also wonder if the 12z GEFS starts shifting south. The modeling I have seen so far today has the HP hanging on a little longer and stronger in the NE. A couple of small ticks one way or the other with the HP or track of the low is huge in the CAD areas. More importantly could be where the front end moisture sets up. That's who will get the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still a nasty Ice storm for much of the upstate with maybe a quick inch or two of snow on the front end. I agree. Temps are showing at 30 as the precip is starting, raising to 33 before the first 1/2 of QPF. Then another inch falls with temps raising to just 35. Assuming the wedge is more tenacious as expected could be a NASTY ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow/Sleet/Freezing rain total map assuming its all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not the same really. In that case the surface high was much more locked into the east by a vortex in the Maritimes, not retreating way offshore like this one will be. Screen Shot 2016-02-12 at 11.01.38 AM.png edited..correction... The parent surface high moved from the ohio valley to off shore the mid atlantic really fast was very weak. The parent high didn't stay over the mid atlantic/damming position but for around 12 hours. The reason i say this reminds me of this one though is low track, similar temps/dewpoints, there was not a strong flow at the surface with it (winds were only 5 to 10 knots..at most) and a parent high that had already shifted off shore shortly after the arrival of precip..yet thanks to the wedge the high was able to maintain itself over the interior longer and helped the wedge from warming or scouring out as fast. Also to point out that even with less than ideal circumstances, if the air is cold and dry enough it can over come them and the wedge can hold strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 what time is 00z on Tues ? FFC has the I-20 corridor pushing 60 tues afternoon. 7:00PM Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC going with a Tom Petty 'won't back down' run. Wedge holds into SC through the run. Sfc low from south Bama to Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS would have RDU < 25 degrees with dew points in the teens as the precip starts as snow. This screams big time ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC going with a Tom Petty 'won't back down' run. Wedge holds into SC through the run. Sfc low from south Bama to Charleston This type of track (IF the precip gets in quickly enough) makes much more sense to me than a low straight through the Piedmont. Is it a reform? Or a consolidated system that tracks through the south? I'm now dizzy after looking at Lookout's maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 7:00PM Tuesday evening. No, 00Z Tues is 7PM Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC going with a Tom Petty 'won't back down' run. Wedge holds into SC through the run. Sfc low from south Bama to Charleston It has definitely been the most consistent lately with the track, while the GFS and Euro have been changing all the time, especially the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This type of track (IF the precip gets in quickly enough) makes much more sense to me than a low straight through the Piedmont. The whole handling of the wave is the most important thing IMO. Euro suite likes the more amped version which puts a whole lot more pressure on the wedge. The GFS should thrive in this kind of fast flow, multiple vorts scenario. 3 days out still, so plenty of time for changes (good or bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No, 00Z Tues is 7PM Monday evening. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC quickly erodes the 32F line to the Northern SC zones/Upstate. About the same around these parts with a tiny bit of freezing drizzle before the switch to rain in CAE... for those wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At 84 hours, it's actually even further south (and a touch slower) of its 0z position at 96 hours. CMC going with a Tom Petty 'won't back down' run. Wedge holds into SC through the run. Sfc low from south Bama to Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Should somebody go into the cliff diving thread and tell them that the NAM/GFS/UKMET/Canadian all bring winter weather to the SE?? On second thought, lets see what DR. NO says first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.