FallsLake Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just looking at the 6z NAM and it would keep dew points in the 20s from just east of Raleigh westward(through hour 84). At that time there's a swipe of near .5 liquid that has fallen through central NC. That would be winter storm criteria. I know it's the NAM at 84 hours but it does show another solution that the other models have shown at one point or the other. I would say the 6z GFS going north was hit in the gut. We have to place it above what the NAM is showing, but hopefully we see it shift back at 12z. We'll at least be able to see if the NAM stays with the colder solution in about 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No negative NAO when we need it. Cold slides right quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No negative NAO when we need it. Cold slides right quickly If we get early onset precp with those Low dew points, it will cool even more and the Precip will lock the cold in. We do not need a perfect HP to hold in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If we get early onset precp with those Low dew points, it will cool even more and the Precip will lock the cold in. We do not need a perfect HP to hold in the cold. That's what Matthew East said, too. Matthew East @eastwx 1h1 hour ago The key for Mon, if you want wintry precip, is to get heavier precip in quicker, locking in-situ wedge in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If we get early onset precp with those Low dew points, it will cool even more and the Precip will lock the cold in. We do not need a perfect HP to hold in the cold. Just watched Mathew East video and he thinks the Canadian Model may have the best handle on this storm by locking in the cold air when precip starts, thinks a lot of folks will be with frozen precip. longer and it shows the mtns. staying frozen the whole event. He thinks the Euro and the GFS models are not picking up on the cold wedge and that the low will go around it central ga. toward eastern nc exactly as the WPC has it. Let's hope so So right now we want the WPC and the Canadian Model solution of which Mathew is leaning toward saying they are picking up on the wedge of cold air in place and will move the storm more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It looks like there is a pretty good consensus that the high is either out or on its way out before the bulk of the system moves in. There is not a great consensus on the track of the storm or the timing of when the precip moves in. The magnitude of this air mass in terms of it being cold and dry is impressive -- not your ordinary weak wedge. Therefore, we have a greater than normal opportunity for a good hit of front end snow and ice before any changeover occurs, IF we can see precip fall quickly enough. So what we are left with here, since the high is going to be gone, is needing the precip to get in here as early as possible and lock in the wedge. IF that happens, then we would most likely see the track and/or the redevelopment of the system occur farther south and east than shown. That's what you want to see, if you are wanting a higher impact winter storm. If we don't see the precip move in before the high moves well offshore, well, then outside of a few spots, it'll be just another ho hum advisory (maybe) to rain thing. The magnitude of this air mass makes this scenario possible. That's the only reason this is even worth talking about outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 wonder what Roberts thoughts are with this storm moving more south since the cold air is so stout even though the high is moving out. I think precip. suppose to start late sunday night isn't it? wish it would come in a little sooner and remember the last couple of storms have moved in about 6 hours earlier than was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 wonder what Roberts thoughts are with this storm moving more south since the cold air is so stout even though the high is moving out. I think precip. suppose to start late sunday night isn't it?He had a great write up yesterday, before the 12z runs. Don't think he's posted since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 He had a great write up yesterday, before the 12z runs. Don't think he's posted since then (Don't usually post in the main threads, but wanted to say that my coworkers glommed onto that writeup and started freaking out ... well after the 12z runs. I had multiple people (who are not usually weather obsessed) link it to me yesterday afternoon, so I think it went a little FB-viral in this part of town.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is a nice front end thump for most of Northern NC, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Low on the NAM is stronger but CAD hangs on a bit longer. Low is a few miles North of 6z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z NAM looks to have held serve if not even a little colder / stronger with the CAD. Out to 72 and it looks like some decent precip would be falling across NC. >.1 at RDU and ~.25 near the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM absolutely crushes the CAD areas. Snow to major major ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It is certainly interesting to see the NAM not amped up like it usually is in this range, lunchtime runs will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM has LP just East of Atlanta at hour 84. Has the freezing line at the surface all the way back to the Triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM definitely holds in the cold air longer. The HP is a little stronger. Big difference with the 2-m. At least 2-3 degrees colder at the surface for most of NC and upper SC at hr 78 when compared to the 6z at 84. Keeps NC in the 20s. Goes to 32 in the Triad by hour 84 when the main low sweeps through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM absolutely crushes the CAD areas. Snow to major major ice. 3-5 inch snow on the front end would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM absolutely crushes the CAD areas. Snow to major major ice. What are CAD areas? Please give me a refresher. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM has LP just East of Atlanta at hour 84. Has the freezing line at the surface all the way back to the Triangle area. this is the track the Canadian Model and the WPC are showing. would be great for some or a lot more folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What are CAD areas? Please give me a refresher. Thank you. Cold air damming regions. Area just east of the apps to roughly I-77 and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 this is the track the Canadian Model and the WPC are showing. would be great for some or a lot more folks. I would never go against the WPC's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM looks a lot like the storm we had in January with a little more snow here. Also looks a lot like the Canadian. I think these two have been the most consistent from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM looks a lot like the storm we had in January with a little more snow here. Except whatever little snow/ip/zr we do get will be immediately washed away by the subsequent rain and warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Except whatever little snow/ip/zr we do get will be immediately washed away by the subsequent rain and warm temps. Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This may be off topic, but the clipper for today is really overperforming in the NW part of SC. I'm in Easley, right in between GSP and Clemson and its really coming down here. Maybe the Monday system can hold the cold and do better too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This may be off topic, but the clipper for today is really overperforming in the NW part of SC. I'm in Easley, right in between GSP and Clemson and its really coming down here. Maybe the Monday system can hold the cold and do better too? coming down in Greenville as well. Very pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Cold air damming regions. Area just east of the apps to roughly I-77 and NW. CAD regions are very subjective to the strength of the CAD. Most consider all the Piedmont regions of NC, the up-state of SC, and NE Ga as the "normal" CAD regions. Of course CAD can encompass almost all of NC, half of SC, most of central / northern Ga, into NE central Alabama. Here's a typical setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z GFS Para is looking good. Nice thump of snow in the upstate at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 06z GEFS does not have a clue at all. May as well close your eyes and put your finger anywhere on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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