superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well, during that precip "explosion", it seems to be lots of virga. Remember how dry that air is going to be. No accums on the snowfall maps. Truth. That being said, the HP does hold on longer on the 00z NAM and the system is more strung out and quicker than the GFS, so it would be a better run taken past hr 84 (not that that would be wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Only problem it's mostly if not all Virga! on the NAM Good... let's us moisten the column and lock in our in-situ wedge. Plus with a faster Low... game on (subject to change in an hour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Plus, it's not actual accumulated precip. It's a simulated radar. Talk about cliff jumping. Wait til someone gets 8 hours of virga on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Plus, it's not actual accumulated precip. It's a simulated radar. Talk about cliff jumping. Wait til someone gets 8 hours of virga on Monday. I recall a lot of overrunning wintry mix events that began with eight hours of virga. It was always expected, but still frustrating. Of course, it did help us to wet bulb and lock in the colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Plus, it's not actual accumulated precip. It's a simulated radar. Talk about cliff jumping. Wait til someone gets 8 hours of virga on Monday. followed by flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I recall a lot of overrunning wintry mix events that began with eight hours of virga. It was always expected, but still frustrating. Of course, it did help us to wet bulb and lock in the colder temps. Yeah. Remember watching a lot of those in high school. Hell, one time in February (sometime between 03-06) they closed schools for 8"+ of forecasted snow, Literally got virga'd for an entire day on radar. Like 12-16 hours and nothing fell. I remember that very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It seems like the NAM always used to be over-amped towards the end of its run, while these days it seems like the opposite is true. We'll see what the rest of the model suite brings. This winter it definitely has not had that over amped tendency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All I know is the NAM nailed the warm nose for the 1/22 system about as soon as it got into range. That's a small detail, but it wasn't totally wrong overall either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All I know is the NAM has failed at least 3 or 4 times in my back yard this Winter. Gonna trust it over the Euro? Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All I know is the NAM has failed at least 3 or 4 times in my back yard this Winter. Gonna trust it over the Euro. Have fun. Nobody saying they trusting it, but its gonna be funny if the Euro starts trending toward the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All I know is the NAM has failed at least 3 or 4 times in my back yard this Winter. Gonna trust it over the Euro? Have fun.lol...which Euro run? They have all been vastly different over the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gonna trust it over the Euro? Negative, ghost rider. I was actually debunking the lies the NAM showed us in my previous posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Only 1 more hour before Burrell posts " ukie folds, low in North Alabama". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the 84 hour Nam (not the poster )is all we got, then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the 84 hour Nam (not the poster )is all we got, then We have the new experimental model JB is hugging! The WHIM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Plus, it's not actual accumulated precip. It's a simulated radar. Talk about cliff jumping. Wait til someone gets 8 hours of virga on Monday. Not me I get to go through that fiasco tommorrow while my good friends off to my east get a fresh snowpack to play in followed by vodka cold all weekend. I have good neighbors off to my west as well enjoying the same from a half a weeks worth of upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol...which Euro run? They have all been vastly different over the last 4 runs. Yeah the Doc. is only jumping 300-500 miles ever 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah the Doc. is only jumping 300-500 miles ever 12 hours!last night it was the weakest and today the most amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wait, I am going to need that bungee cord. Glad I put it on. NAM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 When does the new doc officially take over?I'm so sick of these para this para that. Screw beta testing. Do it for a week and get on with it. Seems like the past 3 maybe 4 winters there's always a upgrade to a global, mostly gfs. It also seems every upgrade gives us worse than we had before with the exception of the latest euro that seems to be owning everything else with verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 gfs looks better fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS looks a tick weaker and a tick further south per the maps on InstantWeatherMaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 When does the new doc officially take over?I'm so sick of these para this para that. Screw beta testing. Do it for a week and get on with it. Seems like the past 3 maybe 4 winters there's always a upgrade to a global, mostly gfs. It also seems every upgrade gives us worse than we had before with the exception of the latest euro that seems to be owning everything else with verification scores. Ryan Maue@RyanMaue Feb 10 Based on overwhelming success of ECMWF upgrade candidate model, implementation scheduled for March 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS definitely a tick south at 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Definitely going to be a better run. Weaker/further south. Not sure it's going to cut it, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS is a trend toward the NAM LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still south at 93, but 850 line retreating into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Less interaction with the northern stream disturbance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, not gonna cut it. That northern stream disturbance boots that HP out so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A step in the right direcrion, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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