Upstate Tiger Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol...there was never good confidence with this system. AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT. AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY... GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW. AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY... EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED. AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY... ...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...SO THE READER IS URGED TO MANAGE HIS/HER EXPECTATIONS ACCORDINGLY. LOL...I really enjoy this forum but I always go the NWS discussion page first before coming in here. Some great amateur posters in here but I get a dose of reality first from NWS then I come in here for entertainment. To some of us this is just fun hobby. To them, it's about protecting life, property and commerce. I think I'll give them a little more weight. BTW....this system reminds me a lot of a system we had back in January of 1985. We had a system follow on the heels of an arctic outbreak. We had 2" of snow on front end, changeover to sleet followed by 12 hours of cold heavy rain. Hope this turns out different and Matthew, said long ways to go yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think folks should go back and read what Matthew East said earlier today. The energy for this system is still very far away. The models are going to change a lot. No reason to write anything off yet. Those are his words. Its a good point Brick. We need to start seeing an indication from the modeling though pretty soon that there is a southeast trend with the slp placement. Apps runner or flatout lakes cutter wont get it done for us, other than maybe some ice at onset due to the CAD. Otherwise its a cold rain washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 flame away everyone! I think you're being generous with the Southern zones. Good call though. The storm needs to speed up to even get ATL involved with a high quickly retreating imo. Edit: I see what you're meaning though.. the earlier precip wave and to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 not looking good when its this quite. maybe later or tomorrow will show better trends for us nc, sc and ga. folks. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Its a good point Brick. We need to start seeing an indication from the modeling though pretty soon that there is a southeast trend with the slp placement. Apps runner or flatout lakes cutter wont get it done for us, other than maybe some ice at onset due to the CAD. Otherwise its a cold rain washout. What I don't like is that several of the models have trended in a negative direction as we've gotten with 96-120 hours of the event. This is typically when I expect to see models begin to move towards the right solution. Having said that, I don't see any way the CAD areas of NC get into the 40's on Tuesday. Rarely does that ever happen with such cold air in place ahead of the storm. It is VERY common to see a 12-18 hour delay in the temps getting to freezing vs. what the models were showing. For those of us that want snow or ice, we probably want light to moderate precip MOnday night and Tuesday as opposed to heavy precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The whole trick to it being a decent winter storm for a lot of folks is getting the moisture in here early Monday to lock in the CAD PERIOD. if it's Monday evening hello rainstorm and then some golfing weather for a couple weeks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL...I really enjoy this forum but I always go the NWS discussion page first before coming in here. Some great amateur posters in here but I get a dose of reality first from NWS then I come in here for entertainment. To some of us this is just fun hobby. To them, it's about protecting life, property and commerce. I think I'll give them a little more weight. BTW....this system reminds me a lot of a system we had back in January of 1985. We had a system follow on the heels of an arctic outbreak. We had 2" of snow on front end, changeover to sleet followed by 12 hours of cold heavy rain. Hope this turns out different and Matthew, said long ways to go yet Spot on...everything you said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 flame away everyone! no flames needed from me lol - looks about right for ne ga at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What times do the next maps release Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What times do the next maps release Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk over the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ok Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Tonight run's start off with the NAM Tonight's 0z theme song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We just got Nam'd with the 00z 12k! Big hit for most folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 here we go! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 here we go! lol and there's this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Cue every cliff jumper climbing back on board in 3......2..... LOL, not quite, we're still talking about the NAM. One thing tho, on the NAM, the sucker is MUCH faster than GFS. I know I know I know, it's the 84hr NAM, but my goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We just got Nam'd with the 00z 12k! Big hit for most folks! I would be careful with that. I would love that but check out the 32km, it looks a lot more reasonable. Something seems off with the 12km and even 4km out to 60 . Not to mention it is the 84 hour NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Less phasing in the NAM. Data dump beginning on the GFS. Lets see what it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I would be careful with that. I would love that but check out the 32km, it looks a lot more reasonable. Something seems off with the 12km and even 4km out to 60 . Not to mention it is the 84 hour NAM... Shouldn't the 4km and 12km NAM technically be better than the 32km NAM, because they're higher resolution? Or is their some drawback/problem with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I would be careful with that. I would love that but check out the 32km, it looks a lot more reasonable. Something seems off with the 12km and even 4km out to 60 . Not to mention it is the 84 hour NAM... Either way you slice it, the Low is moving much faster on the NAM even @ 72 hours across both resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL, not quite, we're still talking about the NAM. One thing tho, on the NAM, the sucker is MUCH faster than GFS. I know I know I know, it's the 84hr NAM, but my goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Shouldn't the 4km and 12km NAM technically be better than the 32km NAM, because they're higher resolution? Or is their some drawback/problem with them? Yes, you are right about the fact that the increased resolution should lend a better result. The exploded precip shield just looks odd to me. But that it is just my opinion, which isn't worth too much. Either way you slice it, the Low is moving much faster on the NAM even @ 72 hours across both resolutions. Yeah, you are definitely right about that. Will be interesting to watch if that is something we see across the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is flat which is usually a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NBC Charlotte (@wcnc) 2/11/16, 21:29 .@wxbrad is sick and tired of hearing about the non-existent 5" snowfall forecast on.wcnc.com/1SL5zA3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It seems like the NAM always used to be over-amped towards the end of its run, while these days it seems like the opposite is true. We'll see what the rest of the model suite brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes, you are right about the resolution should lend a better result. The exploded precip shield just looks odd to me. But that it is just my opinion, which isn't worth too much. Thanks. You may be right about the precip shield, since the NAM tends to have a wet bias, but it's still a relief to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea the NAM could be on to something, like a faster colder solution. Let's see if the other models may start trending back in the direction the NAM is showing. Just because it's the 84hr 12km doesn't mean you toss it out for showing a major winter storm. But of course you have proceed with caution as well. If I remember correctly the NAM did pretty darn good with the last storm as soon as it got in range. For my area atleast anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well, during that precip "explosion", it seems to be lots of virga. Remember how dry that air is going to be. No accums on the snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Only problem it's mostly if not all Virga! on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It seems like the NAM always used to be over-amped towards the end of its run, while these days it seems like the opposite is true. We'll see what the rest of the model suite brings. Over-amped NAM is still flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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