palmettoweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18Z GFS has low over Murphy, NC at hour 108 and then right through Asheville. Definitely ticked north. Really going to need to stop the bleeding at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 fairly amped, too much for my liking. Interesting that the op GFS doesn't even agree with its ensembles or the para GFS. Not even close. Para was a hammer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 you would think that the cold air would keep the low pressure suppresed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 you know this is confusing, i read where things look great that there is no way the storm can cut, then I come back later and everyone is jumping off the cliff, then I come back and everyone is talking how good things look again and now things look bad again, what in the -----is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Beautiful Map! Now we can get some sleep the rest of this week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 you know this is confusing, i read where things look great that there is no way the storm can cut, then I come back later and everyone is jumping off the cliff, then I come back and everyone is talking how good things look again and now things look bad again, what in the -----is going on? People holding onto individual model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm betting a lot of folks get a good snow up front and some will stay snow the whole event. why is it guys that the cold high pressure never seems to hang on so we have snow the whole event. why can't the high anchor down for a little longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 People holding onto individual model runs.It's about synoptic forecasting and climo! Both are going to win this battle! I think models won't have a handle on track of this till Sat at the earliest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It is called Model Mayhem and nobody should wax their ski's nor write it off 4 days out. We have seen how the models have struggled with systems this winter and I expect that to continue so everyone just calm down and let's see where they go by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If a track and strength like this verifies, maybe we should add a thunderstorm element to this in the Carolina's? Looks like GFS has up to 1000 J/KG of CAPE to work with, which could be enough for some isolated severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It is called Model Mayhem and nobody should wax their ski's nor write it off 4 days out. We have seen how the models have struggled with systems this winter and I expect that to continue so everyone just calm down and let's see where they go by Saturday. I'll be surprised if the track doesn't stay south I-20 and I-95 special when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm betting a lot of folks get a good snow up front and some will stay snow the whole event. why is it guys that the cold high pressure never seems to hang on so we have snow the whole event. why can't the high anchor down for a little longer?that's a good call for Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So there are two pieces to this storm possibly? The Monday morning would be a weak wave/ overriding situation and a stronger low develops and runs up the apps and most go to rain Monday night/Tuesday . The super bombs like the 18z GFS , phase the two?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 you would think that the cold air would keep the low pressure suppresed This has been my thinking all along. Models always underestimates the strength of the Cold and everyone on this board knows that. Chances are the cold is stronger and thit keep the LP down into GA and up through mid SC. I may be wrong but I wouldn't be surprised to see it play out like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This has been my thinking all along. Models always underestimates the strength of the Cold and everyone on this board knows that. Chances are the cold is stronger and thit keep the LP down into GA and up through mid SC. I may be wrong but I wouldn't be surprised to see it play out like this. Could be, but this isn't a fresh HP coming in and building the CAD. It's retreating and in-situ CAD can be real squirrelly to predict how fast it can be scoured out. If the system keeps slowing down, it will be April before it gets here so it won't matter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the models are flip flopping so they will flip back in our favor for a trend south tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the models are flip flopping so they will flip back in our favor for a trend south tomorrow. Agreed. Ops are not agreeing with their ensembles and the chances of a primary low tracking through strong CAD, even if residual, are low IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Brick? no not Brick but guys this can flip one way just as good as it can the other 4 days out, everyday we've gone from a great track to a poor track and back and forth. not giving up yet. I've seen things flip in our favor the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the models are flip flopping so they will flip back in our favor for a trend south tomorrow. To an extent I do agree with this, what do we always say about being in the proverbial "jackpot zone" this far out? If we were seeing models paint us all up with 2 foot plus totals would we believe it? Maybe, but I'd hope not! I firmly believe there is an equal chance of a trend in either direction, what I'd like to see is some data showing weather a NW or SE trend is favored as a potential bias in modeling at this range... could be good information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Turn out the lights, the party's over. This one is toast for winter precip except the mountains and maybe some brief front end stuff. Bring on the torch and then severe weather. I'm out. No torch please, but I am looking forward to some gusty squalls, vivid lightning, and deep rumbling thunder this spring The 18z gfs says cae starts off as zr briefly with a temp of 30 before it climbs to a toasty 54 with .5 falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 18z GEFS is considerably farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 flame away everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 flame away everyone! No love for the upstate above 85 to see 1-2" of snow on front before the ICE Storm hits? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No love for the upstate above 85 to see 1-2" of snow on front before the ICE Storm hits? :-) I don't think so, no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 flame away everyone! Looks right for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I like where we are at this far out with a 50/50 win of wintry weather or flooding. I'm glad it's not showing the Piedmont Triad or Foothills with 10"+ because then we would have to suffer for another 4days of people jumping every time it trended north. Four more days of tracking and I'm glad we are not in the bulls-eye right about now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I like where we are at this far out with a 50/50 win of wintry weather or flooding. I'm glad it's not showing the Piedmont Triad or Foothills with 10"+ because then we would have to suffer for another 4days of people jumping every time it trended north. Four more days of tracking and I'm glad we are not in the bulls-eye right about now! How old is this map? I bet this probability map was out before the 18z runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How old is this map? I bet this probability map was out before the 18z runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk probably came out this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If a track and strength like this verifies, maybe we should add a thunderstorm element to this in the Carolina's? Looks like GFS has up to 1000 J/KG of CAPE to work with, which could be enough for some isolated severe weather That run gives me right at 3" rain which would put me close to 10" for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think folks should go back and read what Matthew East said earlier today. The energy for this system is still very far away. The models are going to change a lot. No reason to write anything off yet. Those are his words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.