PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think the hard forecast here is the onset of precip. The earlier the onset, the more frozen stuff falls across the board. Will precip begin early Monday morning or later in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 The afternoon WPC probability maps, give us a 50-75% chance of .25 QPF or more , as sleet or snow! That's amazing after the 12z runs! That's because they actually know how to look at climatology instead of just one suite of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Gfs para looks more like the ukie than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Para is a crush job... much flatter with the backside wave the operational. It's dropping 2.5 to 3 inches of snow in my backyard before switching over to sleet/freezing rain. It even gives atlanta a solid inch or two of snow Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z gfs para better than op. More front end precip, which is has a better chance of being frozen. Looks like triad area goes over 32 degrees early Monday evening, but not until close to a half an inch of precip has fallen. A slight shift south and east and a lot of the CAD would stay below 32 for event. BTW, can someone tell me what differences are in gfs para and op. I know there was a major upgrade on gfs last year and more recently the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So here's there 12z Model Break down: Models showing a signficant event for CAD regions: 1. Para GFS 2. CMC, (switches to rain, but still lays down a significant winter storm on the front end.) 3. Ukie (most likely a big hit, going off the maps we have) 4. Euro Ensemble Control, (major hit) 5. GFS/CMC/ and Euro Ensembles imply a decent threat as well 6. JMA,(I think?) 7. ARPEGE, (major hit) 8. NAM, (I'm guessing here, but it looks pretty flat with the backside energy so I think it would lead to a hit.) Models showing mostly rain with a storm that cuts too far west: 1. Euro Op 2. GFS Op 3.NAVGEM, (it trended way south compared to it's prior runs, but is still too far north and too warm for anything) 4. ??? I guess that's all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The afternoon WPC probability maps, give us a 50-75% chance of .25 QPF or more , as sleet or snow! That's amazing after the 12z runs! That's because they actually know how to look at climatology instead of just one suite of model runs. This is not over by a long shot all these cliff dives because of one set of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Joe Bastardi's thoughts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 And check out 18 z 84 Nam : Do I see a consensus building back up? LOL 12z Para is a crush job... much flatter with the backside wave the operational. It's dropping 2.5 to 3 inches of snow in my backyard before switching over to sleet/freezing rain. It even gives atlanta a solid inch or two of snow Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z gfs para better than op. More front end precip, which is has a better chance of being frozen. Looks like triad area goes over 32 degrees early Monday evening, but not until close to a half an inch of precip has fallen. A slight shift south and east and a lot of the CAD would stay below 32 for event. BTW, can someone tell me what differences are in gfs para and op. I know there was a major upgrade on gfs last year and more recently the gefs. I'm a met and i don't know what it is. I think they tried to decrease raster cell size and that was the experimental model. I thought the old model was done away with and replaced with the parallel. that's just my guess. been a year or two since i messed with those files and GRADS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z gfs para better than op. More front end precip, which is has a better chance of being frozen. Looks like triad area goes over 32 degrees early Monday evening, but not until close to a half an inch of precip has fallen. A slight shift south and east and a lot of the CAD would stay below 32 for event. BTW, can someone tell me what differences are in gfs para and op. I know there was a major upgrade on gfs last year and more recently the gefs. the para is the new Gfs which will take over soon. It has slightly better scores than the old Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z gfs para better than op. More front end precip, which is has a better chance of being frozen. Looks like triad area goes over 32 degrees early Monday evening, but not until close to a half an inch of precip has fallen. A slight shift south and east and a lot of the CAD would stay below 32 for event. BTW, can someone tell me what differences are in gfs para and op. I know there was a major upgrade on gfs last year and more recently the gefs. When the 13km GFS was released last year one of the future improvements they listed was supposed to be higher vertical resolution, but I have no idea if that is a part of this particular release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z phasing again edit: looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 James Spann in Birmingham says this is an all rain event, even along the GA border. That pretty much means an all rain event in the western part of GA also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z phasing again edit: looks better Lol!? What time does precip arrive around here this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm a met and i don't know what it is. I think they tried to decrease raster cell size and that was the experimental model. I thought the old model was done away with and replaced with the parallel. that's just my guess. been a year or two since i messed with those files and GRADS. LOL Your a met? But you called the last set of OP runs a app runner? I'm more than confused! I know....banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z phasing again edit: looks better Okay. Where are Wow and Burgertime when you need them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Lol!? What time does precip arrive around here this run?It's a troll post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Okay. Might need to take a break from model watching haha Work and this system is wearing me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's because they actually know how to look at climatology instead of just one suite of model runs.Our climo is rain, 98% of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro para is ugly. Close the shades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gfs is way amped gonna be worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Might need to take a break from model watching haha Work and this system is wearing me down.Do you work at TWC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro para is ugly. Close the shades! How was the euro eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Indiana might be a good spot for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Do you work at TWC ? Nope Looks like the 18z was north of the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How was the euro eps?fairly amped, too much for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Johnny C just said all rain, a few sleet pellets, it's game over, plus 18z GFS ! Hit the lights, you ain't gotta go home, but you gotta get out of here! Lock up the thread, wait, the NAM will save us! I better take pictures of tomorrow's flurries, cause that's it til next February ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nope Looks like the 18z was north of the 12z You need to get a red tag if your a met!? I love to hear your analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Turn out the lights, the party's over. This one is toast for winter precip except the mountains and maybe some brief front end stuff. Bring on the torch and then severe weather. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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