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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

lilj4425

By lilj4425,
in Southeastern States

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Bsudweather

Bsudweather

Posted
Posted

I would make sure you use the ens and ens mean after seeing all individual members to make sure one is not promoting a false signal before buying the ops good or bad till atleast saturday. Still think this is a warning criteria storm Monday for mtns, foothills and good chunk of western peidmont(ice mostly here). Havent seen any evidence on ens to change my thinking. The ops can play alot of folks like a yo yo. If the ens start zeroing in on a rain storm then bet on the rain storm, but until then be cautious both ways, good and bad

I think us here in the Upstate ends up with a nasty Ice storm myself. We may see a quick 2" of snow on front, but then I think we switch to IP/ZR!

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Sounds like East thinks it's way too early to jump off the cliff.

 

Matthew East ‏@eastwx 16m16 minutes ago

(1/3)See the piece of energy WAY out in the Pacific? Not the one off the W Coast... I mean the one closer to Japan?

 

Matthew East ‏@eastwx 15m15 minutes ago

(2/3)That's the piece of energy that forms our Monday system. So to say that we have a LONG way to go is a tremendous understatement.

 

Matthew East ‏@eastwx 14m14 minutes ago

(3/3)Model swings will continue. Just looks at the latest Euro vs. it's own previous run. Big-time uncertainty.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

I don't know that people realize just how far out there this system is.... like I just tweeted, it's on the other side of the Pacific. And we are dealing with the amplification of a piece of upper level energy popping a SFC low a hundred miles one way or another.

 

Were the 12z GEM/ GFS/ Euro runs good for winter wx fans? No. Could they be right? Sure. Are there likely to be changes? Absolutely.... this is the definition of a changeable setup. 

 

I've been on this system since Feb 1, and I am not going to flip and flop with every run of a model (nor will any other good met). This storm was about pattern recognition for me before the models ever really 'saw' it anyway. 

 

But if folks want a glimmer of 'hope' from this specific model cycle (outside of the flippy-floppy UKMET and French), the GEM ensemble mean is much colder than the operational, and the GFS mean a little quicker.

 

 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

I don't know that people realize just how far out there this system is.... like I just tweeted, it's on the other side of the Pacific. And we are dealing with the amplification of a piece of upper level energy popping a SFC low a hundred miles one way or another.

 

Were the 12z GEM/ GFS/ Euro runs good for winter wx fans? No. Could they be right? Sure. Are there likely to be changes? Absolutely.... this is the definition of a changeable setup. 

 

I've been on this system since Feb 1, and I am not going to flip and flop with every run of a model (nor will any other good met). This storm was about pattern recognition for me before the models ever really 'saw' it anyway. 

 

But if folks want a glimmer of 'hope' from this specific model cycle (outside of the flippy-floppy UKMET and French), the GEM ensemble mean is much colder than the operational, and the GFS mean a little quicker.

 

Thanks for your thoughts Matt! Appreciate you giving us an update.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

Euro Control run is still a major winter storm for CAD regions including Northeast georgia. My location stays below freezing for all of the precip.

 

The control run also has the low pressure tracking right through the upstate. It is about 6 hours faster the operational and that does wonders for the wedge's strength. By the time the surface low gets to the upstate and disrupts the northeasterly winds, the upstate has already dry-slotted.

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MillerA

MillerA

Posted
Posted

GSP Afternoon Disco:

 

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...the operational models have come into better
agreement with the next weather system expected to affect the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia early next week. The GFS/ECMWF/
Canadian all have a similar depiction of the amplitude and timing of
the 500 mb trough expected to dig down over the plains on Sunday
night...with the trough axis crossing the MS river on Monday
afternoon. Thus...confidence is slowly increasing as the models
start to agree on an overall scenario of a higher amplitude trough...
even if timing remains off. The models generally show a more inland
track of a primary surface low across north Georgia Monday night and the
Carolina Piedmont on Tuesday morning. If that works out...it would
most likely mean strong warm advection across the Piedmont and
foothills Monday afternoon and night which would almost assuredly
force a changeover to rain across most of the Piedmont and even a
good bit of the mountains what remains to be seen is how much falls as
something other than rain before the transition occurs. Of
course...uncertainty remains high...so the Reader is urged to manage
his/her expectations accordingly.

Light precipitation should break out across the forecast area Sunday night and
Monday morning as moisture returns and isentropic upglide gradually
strengthens to the north of a developing warm front across the deep
south. Because we should begin the event with a cold and dry air
mass in place...anything that falls before about midday Monday
should be in the form of snow. However...as the low approaches from
the west...warm advection will increase from the south. The models
agree that a warm nose should develop on Monday afternoon that will
bring a changeover to sleet and then perhaps a brief period of
freezing rain across the area along and S of the I-85 corridor. We
lack a strong parent high to the northeast...which is a significant
limiting factor on the winter precipitation potential. Thus...it is hard to
imagine it will not be a mostly rain event across most of the region
Monday night...perhaps with some heavy rain that might cause minor
flooding issues. The NC foothills...Blue Ridge...and part of the northwest
Piedmont will be the exception...as usual...because cold air will be
trapped the longest...well into Monday night. As it stands right
now...the transition to freezing rain will occur early Monday
evening and then it will stay that way into early Tuesday morning.
This has the potential to produce ice accumulate of around one quarter
inch in the I-40 corridor and Blue Ridge before the changeover to
rain around daybreak Tuesday. Forcing is the strongest and moisture
the deepest Monday night. Have limited the precipitation probability to the likely
range for now...mostly over uncertainty in the precipitation type forecast. As
the low pulls away Tuesday...colder air will move back in from the
west...and precipitation will change back over to snow across the NC
mountains as the event winds down.

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WSNC

WSNC

Posted
Posted

Euro Control run is still a major winter storm for CAD regions including Northeast georgia. My location stays below freezing for all of the precip.

 

The control run also has the low pressure tracking right through the upstate. It is about 6 hours faster the operational and that does wonders for the wedge's strength. By the time the surface low gets to the upstate and disrupts the northeasterly winds, the upstate has already dry-slotted.

The mean improved slightly over last run as well.  Certainly way better than op.  A lot of uncertainty as has been stated based on various low positions of individual members.  

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Euro Control run is still a major winter storm for CAD regions including Northeast georgia. My location stays below freezing for all of the precip.

 

The control run also has the low pressure tracking right through the upstate. It is about 6 hours faster the operational and that does wonders for the wedge's strength. By the time the surface low gets to the upstate and disrupts the northeasterly winds, the upstate has already dry-slotted.

 

i don't know why so many people seem to be calling this a no-go storm at this point.  most of us should realize not to flip our opinions on each and every model run, esp this far in advance.  winter wx early next week for a decent number of posters is still on the table - the extent certainly istn known yet. being the in 12" bullseye this far out is virtually always a recipe for disaster.

 

if this cold wave this weekend is anything like what is being progged at this point there is certainly a decent chance of something wintry early next week.  reading some of these doom and gloom model posts are giving me a headache lol :blink:

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

The UKMET has been a very high scoring model lately and I do like the fact is has been trending flatter/east. 

 

It'll be interesting to see if it stays with that idea the next future runs and if it does, will the EURO eventually back it up by following in that direction. Under 72 hours is supposedly when the UKMET performs it's best so we'll see...

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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

GSP retreating faster than than the French army during WWII. :lmao:

 

Lol...there was never good confidence with this system. 

 

 

AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT. 
 
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
 
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.  
 
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...
...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...SO THE READER IS URGED TO MANAGE HIS/HER EXPECTATIONS ACCORDINGLY.  
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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH throws everything on the table - model differences, Miller A or B, timing, and ends up with this -- which I think is safe for the time being.

 

THESE DIFFERENCES ALL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THEVERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND RESULTING P-TYPES... ANDUNFORTUNATELY... WE CANNOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS ATTHIS TIME WITH ANY AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS ANDENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A LOW TRACK WELL INLAND... EVEN WITH A MILLER-B SECONDARY LOW... WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THE EASTERN CWA WILLSEE A SWIFT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MON. CONSIDERING THAT THEPRECEDING POLAR AIR MASS WILL HAVE BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPS AND EVENCOLDER DEWPOINTS... THE STABLE AIR MAY PROVE MORE DIFFICULT TODISLODGE OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE NWPIEDMONT... YIELDING A LONGER DURATION WINTER EVENT THERE. MODELSALSO TEND TO AGREE ON AN OVERALL PATTERN OF LIGHTER PRECIP ON MONDAYWITH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LIFT AND GREATERMOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT FOR LATE MONNIGHT INTO TUE. BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODELRUNS... SO EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

RAH throws everything on the table - model differences, Miller A or B, timing, and ends up with this -- which I think is safe for the time being.

 

Main thing is there is still a lot of time for a lot of changes. Just like Matthew East said, the energy is still very far away, and what the models show now might not be what they show down the road.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

 

Lol...there was never good confidence with this system. 

 

 

AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT. 
 
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
 
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.  
 
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...
...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...SO THE READER IS URGED TO MANAGE HIS/HER EXPECTATIONS ACCORDINGLY.  

 

The bolded totally made me giggle   ^_^

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Tony Sisk

Tony Sisk

Posted
Posted

According to what I just read from them. They didn't waiver much.

IMO, a bunch of the post in this thread needs to be taken to Banter. The modeling this season has been as reliable as the Iowa polls.

People just need to be patient.

Let me add. thank you GSP for learning how to use lowercase. So much easier to read!!

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raysum

raysum

Posted
Posted

 

Lol...there was never good confidence with this system. 

 

 

AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT. 
 
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
 
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.  
 
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...
...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...SO THE READER IS URGED TO MANAGE HIS/HER EXPECTATIONS ACCORDINGLY.  

 

Thanks Isohume. People only read what they want to as you are correct. I don't see how their can be any confidence in any forecast at this time...

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