Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe a franklin special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe a franklin special?freezing flood waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ugh to say the least, I'm not giving up till Saturday. I've see plenty of storms move NW but not so many SE shifts like what's needed for the foothills/Mtns with this storm. I'm wishcasting but hopefully the HP will hang in long enough to keep the low track east toward at least I-95. But with no CAD she's free to track were ever she pleases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Don't forget the AMPERGE! Vive La France! and Gfs para! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 freezing flood waters. Need the euro 100-150 miles SE and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ugh to say the least, I'm not giving up till Saturday. I've see plenty of storms move NW but not so many SE shifts like what's needed for the foothills/Mtns with this storm. I'm wishcasting but hopefully the HP will hang in long enough to keep the low track east toward at least I-95. But with no CAD she's free to track were ever she pleases.even with cad it would still cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How many lows have followed the path this year that this is showing? The past does not equate to the future. Every single indicie says this is not an east coast storm. The models are finally catching on to that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 even with cad it would still cut. If the HP/CAD hung around a little longer, wouldn't that help push it east a bit though? Trying to learn as much as I can, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Don't forget the AMPERGE! Vive La France! How that model do on last weekend's storm. I din't track it, was to east for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe 1" of snow for a decent portion of NC with the initial WAA wave, but the main event is going to be a disaster. Disaster? ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 How that model do on last weekend's storm. I din't track it, was to east for me? It was too far west/amped, though arguably performed better than most of the other modeling, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Disaster? ZR? Nope... lots of RAIN RAIN RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nope... lots of RAIN RAIN RAINCool, I'm coming up to cruise Franklin Sunday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Big bust potential either way on this one. Could see it go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the mountains and adjacent foothills receive the precip being shown on top of some snow pack in the higher elevations with the antecedent high water levels look out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 7m7 minutes agoPennsylvania, USA Addressed Euro run, which is now warmer like yesterday 12z, on http://weatherbell.com premium post. I dont believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Comparing the last 4 Euro runs is lol... Might as well give the dgex the same weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm sticking with the consistent Canadian. Everything else has been all over the map. Literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All the models will trend 200 miles South, by tomorrow's runs! If JB is tossing the Euro, I'm tossing the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm sticking with the consistent Canadian. Everything else has been all over the map. Literally Canadian pretty much cuts too....it's the ukmet and the French model. That's it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian pretty much cuts too....it's the ukmet and the French model. That's it. Lol. Which I shouldn't complain much because all still give me wintry weather even with most cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Which I shouldn't complain much because all still give me wintry weather even with most cutting. The GFS and EURO give you very little wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS and EURO give you very little wintry Euro drops about 3 inches on the front side here and GFS has about 1-2 on the backside. So that's looking like worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro drops about 3 inches on the front side here and GFS has about 1-2 on the backside. So that's looking like worst case. Who cares when its gone in a few hours from heavy rain, and you should know better than getting your hopes up from backside snow in McDowell due to downsloping, remember march 1 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Who cares when its gone in a few hours from heavy rain, and you should know better than getting your hopes up from backside snow in McDowell due to downsloping, remember march 1 2009? I'm playing with house money anyway. I'm at 120% of average snowfall for the year here. A 3 incher here and maybe a 3 incher from an ULL in March and I'm 200% and I'll roll down to Orlando on the big bird and enjoy spring training a happy man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Love this time frame of ~4 days out...models "lose" the previous runs they've been showing only to slowly bring them back over the next 24-48 hours. Still see the Mtns staying frozen and the foothills mostly frozen. Will be a wet snow which is my favorite anyway. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gfs ensemble mean is faster than the op. I find that interesting as the ensembles are usually slower than the op. At 120 the Gfs ensemble mean is closer to the ukie than the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well, at least models can only trend better from here. I actually sorta like being in this situation at this time frame (though maybe not quite that this extreme), having a goal to work towards on the models 4 days out, rather than having what we want only to see it disappear on the models. I'm curious how the EPS will compare with the OP Euro. All things considered, though, I'm sure GSP/RAH are feeling pretty foolish right now, after being so abnormally bullish for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well, at least models can only trend better from here. I actually sorta like being in this situation at this time frame (though maybe not quite that this extreme), having a goal to work towards on the models 4 days out, rather than having what we want only to see it disappear on the models. I'm curious how the EPS will compare with the OP Euro. All things considered, though, I'm sure GSP/RAH are feeling pretty foolish right now, after being so abnormally bullish for this event. Let's see how much GSP backtracks when their afternoon disco comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would make sure you use the ens and ens mean after seeing all individual members to make sure one is not promoting a false signal before buying the ops good or bad till atleast saturday. Still think this is a warning criteria storm Monday for mtns, foothills and good chunk of western peidmont(ice mostly here). Havent seen any evidence on ens to change my thinking. The ops can play alot of folks like a yo yo. If the ens start zeroing in on a rain storm then bet on the rain storm, but until then be cautious both ways, good and bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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