griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Most of the tracks I see for the low are WELL inland now.... I don't think that works and I think the cold gets scoured out quickly with those tracks. I think the Canadian is the still the furthest south and that needs to be the right one if this is going to be a true I-85 winter storm or close to it. I don't like the trend of everything shifting northwest. Very surprised to see this in the paper this morning.....NWS is going all in, I'm not sure what they're seeing in the models though at this point. Certainly hope they're right. 5 inches at CLT? http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article59730976.html Wife asked me about that earlier and I replied that chances of that happening were low and that it was an aggressive call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 There is no cold air left by then with the high way off the coast. With that strong a short wave having a low go that far north in this case is no problem at all. whay about the front end frontal precip? All the models have it with temps plenty cold. Even if the storm winds up cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 At 96 hrs, it looks like the Ukmet is just a broad trough with no backside kicker like the gfs. It would imply a better front end thump with no wound up storm on the back end Did the Ukie and GFS switch places from two days ago or am I just dreaming? Talk about a mess with the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN- 958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. not if the Gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 not if the Gfs is right. The 6Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Did the Ukie and GFS switch places from two days ago or am I just dreaming? Talk about a mess with the models right now. The UKMET and Euro had cutters to Ohio as of their 00z runs the night before last, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 6Z GFS?12z dumpster fire of a run.Toaster sales just spiked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Exactly...It's not like runs several days ago when this was more of a Monday storm and HP was not off the coast. This is now a Tuesday event and the HP is way off the coast. I agree and looks like Mr. Fischel will be pretty close in his assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z dumpster fire of a run. Toaster sales just spiked! So are we going just off one run of the GFS and calling it a trend? Maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I am not "cliff diving" yet, just pointing out the obvious that the overall trends in all models have been generally warmer the past 3 days. The Euro a couple of days ago had 2" of snow even close to me, now no model has snow here, and they have even backed off on the ice. I am reserving judgement totally until a few more models come in but at least for north GA the chance of anything but rain is small IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 At 96 hrs, it looks like the Ukmet is just a broad trough with no backside kicker like the gfs. It would imply a better front end thump with no wound up storm on the back end Sfc low on UKMet at 120 is in NE NC / SE VA. Terrible performance by the UKMet with this storm in terms of how much it has changed whay about the front end frontal precip? All the models have it with temps plenty cold. Even if the storm winds up cutting Problem I see with that is the front end being light instead of a good thump. Need a more south solution overall to improve the front side precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So are we going just off one run of the GFS and calling it a trend? Maybe I'm missing something.I didn't call it a trend or cancel the storm, just pointing out that the Gfs was an ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 not if the Gfs is right. I doubt you see people like Robert backtrack on everything or the NWS for that matter. I am highly confident with the dry cold air at the surface this ends up tracking east of the foothills. Pattern recognition > Model Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Light front side wintry on CMC, but it has caved to a stronger, warmer, more west solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like the the 12z cmc is now following the 12z gfs and 0z euro para and cutting over the foothills. We are starting to see the models come together and it's not good for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It really is a shame to waste the best pre-conditions for a winter storm that we have seen all winter. Almost the perfect setup for a major SE winter storm. Unfortunately, with no -NAO, it's another swing and a miss. It is increasingly apparent that the thread will have missed the eye of the needle once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Um you got 4 days of model runs...all it takes is a meagle 25 mile trend east each day. Too soon to jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It really is a shame to waste the best pre-conditions for a winter storm that we have seen all winter. Almost the perfect setup for a major SE winter storm. Unfortunately, with no -NAO, it's another swing and a miss. It is increasingly apparent that the thread will have missed the eye of the needle once again. I blame it on that damn Bloo Q Kazoo!!!! It has always been bad luck!!! I'm just kidding lilj! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It really is a shame to waste the best pre-conditions for a winter storm that we have seen all winter. Almost the perfect setup for a major SE winter storm. Unfortunately, with no -NAO, it's another swing and a miss. It is increasingly apparent that the thread will have missed the eye of the needle once again. Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. That's assuming we actually go as low as the models predict. We might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. It's what Cold Rain just alluded to. With a persistent +NAO, we have nothing to keep the high pressure from scooting out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The UKMet from 3 days could end up being correct after it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It really is a shame to waste the best pre-conditions for a winter storm that we have seen all winter. Almost the perfect setup for a major SE winter storm. Unfortunately, with no -NAO, it's another swing and a miss. It is increasingly apparent that the thread will have missed the eye of the needle once again. Winter storms in the south are a lot like football in the south. You can't score without good blocking! Unfortunately, we have had some talented players over the last couple years (cold air and storms). But, because we can't block for them, we don't score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. I really, really hope you get to say, "I told you so" soon. I just wouldn't bet on it. The trends are pretty undeniable. I feel like our best hope now is that everything speeds back up a bit, but I'm not sure how much good even that would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Light front side wintry on CMC, but it has caved to a stronger, warmer, more west solution And that's the game..... It is such a shame that we have a nice long cold period of about 6-7 days, and the storm comes at the tail end when it's too late. Plus stinking cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. It's been 17 degrees at my house in the morning before and raining by lunchtime. WAA is tough and storm track is king, PERIOD! I'm not saying that the GFS track from that one model run is going to be right though. I hope it's not. It is just one model run and we have several more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Precip onset could still be close to 100 hours away. Still plenty of time. Really don't understand all the cliff diving this early. For some of these models to verify we would have to see a temperature swing of 25+ degrees with cloud cover! Not happening. I'm not cliff diving. I just don't like the trends for this event. Maybe it'll come back. We've seen it before. But, the high scooting out quickly, along with a more amped system lessens the chance for a major event. Unless I see a reason that this system is going to come in more quickly than currently modeled, more south than currently modeled, weaker than currently modeled, and the high staying put longer than currently modeled, I have to think less impact. And that is fine with me. I have had enough ice for one winter. Winter storms in the south are a lot like football in the south. You can't score without good blocking! Unfortunately, we have had some talented players over the last couple years (cold air and storms). But, because we can't block for them, we don't score. Haha that is true. You don't score until you score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Canadian still looks to show a front end warning criteria snow to ice event for the NW Piedmont and foothills, but it's definitely worse than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Guys, don't panic. We still have all of March to go and March is often a big performer in strong el ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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