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Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.


lilj4425

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  On 2/14/2016 at 5:50 PM, WxBlue said:

You're a local so how high it really is? Wiki is at 1,450 feet, but I swear I remember a city limit sign stating 1,100 feet...

The signs you speak of say 1,400 which is probably pretty accurate in downtown proper. On the bypass of 221 and where I live its 1,750

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Interesting to hear the reports of snow already in the west.

 

I'm so far east, it will a race to see what gets here first, the over running snow flurries or the waa. One thing is that the waa will in all likelihood save this area from widespread zr. I'm worried about those western piedmont and foothills areas though where the CAD will hold out longer and there could be a significant ice storm.

 

I hope all goes well for everyone.

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  On 2/14/2016 at 5:49 PM, oconeexman said:

Impressive wedge, not gonna get above 30 here today! It's a dam shame moisture won't cooperate.

i know - its depressing lol.  we actually have a great wedge, just cant get any moisture in here for it

 

cloudy and cold here - what a waste!

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  On 2/14/2016 at 6:00 PM, Cheeznado said:

New Euro low over east TN at 06Z tomorrow night. Huge NAM/CMC/French model etc fail. Maybe I will get some thunder here, at least that would be not as dull as a cool rain....

I have lurked on this board for years, and maybe this is wrong for me to say but why is it you are always so negative on storm chances? While I understand the models are looking warmer, and if we do indeed get an alps runner it will be rain, but I have seen models fail again and again with CAD. Both in winter AND SPRING. This is some bone dry air. Won't this be more of a now casting situation OTP? Are 2005 and 2015 not two good case studies on modeling NOT picking up on the potential a dry cold airmass has? 

 

Again no disrespect intended,just trying to understand.

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  On 2/14/2016 at 4:42 PM, NicInNC said:

When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo.

 

 

Sun still shining bright there? Sun is overhead here at RDU but to the immediate west sky is opaque and solid.

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  On 2/14/2016 at 6:17 PM, MyBookMonkey said:

I have lurked on this board for years, and maybe this is wrong for me to say but why is it you are always so negative on storm chances? While I understand the models are looking warmer, and if we do indeed get an alps runner it will be rain, but I have seen models fail again and again with CAD. Both in winter AND SPRING. This is some bone dry air. Won't this be more of a now casting situation OTP? Are 2005 and 2015 not two good case studies on modeling NOT picking up on the potential a dry cold airmass has?

Again no disrespect intended,just trying to understand.

I think an alps runner would ok for us.
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  On 2/14/2016 at 6:23 PM, MyBookMonkey said:

Perhaps, but for ice every storm I have seen needs to at least be below Macon for my area. (Near Gainesville, GA). With that being said you can tell the wedge is moving in. Stiff E winds and its clouding up. It'll be a close call.

I would like to hear Lookouts final thoughts!?
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