wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Crazy thing is, for the storm to go east against the thinking and actual setup,it's very hard to grasp. But, with that in mind, would the high in the Atlantic need to be weaker or further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Crazy thing is, for the storm to go east against the thinking and actual setup,it's very hard to grasp. But, with that in mind, would the high in the Atlantic need to be weaker or further east?weaker would help and east would help even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DGEX is a raging blizzard with 2-3' totals for most. Hug the hell out of it cause it aint gonna happen. Good eye candy tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Because the models are all over the place and they have all sucked this winter until very close to an eventso let's be skeptical of the eps but embrace the ggem. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 so let's be skeptical of the eps but embrace the ggem. lol It's actually been the only model that hasn't constantly been flopping around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think I'm beginning to possibly see something, but only noticed it on the cmc.... The storm is west, the lower the pressure of the low is...it was 990 several runs ago.... latest run the pressure is higher,and it's further east. At 12z it's 999mb with low at the end of long island.. compared to 00z, the lows just west of NYC with pressure of 993mb. Would a weaker storm go east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.png What I take from this, and what I've always taken from this, is that: 1) while the hierarchy of the models generally holds true in their correlation scores, on any given day any model can be the best or the worst, and 2) they are all much further away from 1 then they are to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 See that high over the Atlantic? It's not going to allow it to come much further East, if at all. The Atlantic ridge has been modeled poorly in the mid range this year. It's trended stronger in the short range which is the main reason we've seen the storms trend NW. I'm usually not one to talk about seasonal trends on models but this has certainly been the case this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Atlantic ridge has been modeled poorly in the mid range this year. It's trended stronger in the short range which is the main reason we've seen the storms trend NW. I'm usually not one to talk about seasonal trends on models but this has certainly been the case this winter. Glad someone has explained that! Makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z gefs pretty decent shift east along with its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z gefs pretty decent shift east along with its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z gefs pretty decent shift east along with its ensembles. Almost all have 2-3"+ from I-95 N/W, this might be mostly rain/mix, but north of I-95 I think there will be some accumulating snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's not often you see a GEFS mean this wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's not often you see a GEFS mean this wet. Yea looks to be a torrential heavy rain Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Early returns are that the Euro will be West. The ridge is significantly further West in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 As previously mentioned, the ridge is stronger and further West and the trough is even more amplified. As Rjay alluded to earlier, the ridging to the East has been modeled weaker than advertised in the mid-range all Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There are so many moving pieces here that we prob shouldn't even extrapolate models until 12Z Sunday. This thing is going to continue to be all over the place until late in the weekend. Some mets think NAM is too weak and strung out. UK is wrapping the storm up too much and going negative tilt. Safe bet is a blend of GFS and Euro. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 By Tuesday afternoon the freezing line at all levels is North of the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 As has been stated, the PNA, AO, NAO, all seem to be strongly against anything substantial along I-95. With the position and strength of the high off the Northeast coast, the path of least resistance would allow this storm to run right up the Hudson Valley. Now, maybe it can make it's way up the CT River Valley, if that high nudges a bit more northeast. I am hoping for our friends upstate/Vt that it does. You guys deserve one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 985mb near State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 this could be the biggest wind event since sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Major winds back to the DE River. The low tracks so far West that rain is somewhat limited here. 1"+ NW and around an inch SE. You need to go back to Western PA to find significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 this could be the biggest wind event since sandy THIS! WOW! Forky is highly reticent on proclamations. serious stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 this could be the biggest wind event since sandy I really wish that kicker wasn't there, it wanted to close off over VA but was delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro may be correct, doesn't change the fact it's a western outlier... And WAY west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Has the jma loaded past hour 72 for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 this could be the biggest wind event since sandy How high are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Someone asked about the 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Even the NAVGEM which is traditionally always weak and East tracks the low over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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