Possible 2/16 storm threat

[IsentropicLift]

 

[IsentropicLift]

With all due respect, why would we want so much rain? Do we need it? Or do you just like the pouring rain ( and that is fine I guess, albeit a little unusual ) because I'm not a fan of flooding basements and such....do you think we will get that much rain?

Yes

[IsentropicLift]

As I suspected, someone in NW NJ or NE PA could come close to a warning criteria ice event.

 

[RU848789]

We're definitely into nowcasting and latest reports from southern DE indicate 2-3" already on the ground there and warnings going up. Doesn't necessarily mean our snowfall predictions should be increased, as they got "extra" snow due to unanticipated increased intensity, which may not happen here, but it certainly shows the potential with this storm, especially since it also might be a little harder to dislodge the cold air in place than is being modeled. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

 

SOME REPORTS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE INDICATE THAT 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH MORE ON THE WAY, AND THEREFORE WE ARE
UPGRADING SUSSEX /DE/, AND CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES TO A
WARNING. WE ALSO ADDED MORE OF A TRANSITION ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES AS ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT OCCURS WITH MORE OF A LAG
IN THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE, DESPITE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATER SOME ICING SHOULD OCCUR
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN RATHER
COLD SURFACES.

[IsentropicLift]

 

[ag3]

SV snow maps are the worst ones in industry.

Rgem is 1"-3" of snow for everyone, including NYC with a pocket of 3"-4" for the interior.

[ag3]

Rgem total snow from the 2 good sites:

[SleetStormNJ]

Models like GFS are already well off from what's occurred down south. Not that it will translate to us being surprised up here but nonetheless.

[IsentropicLift]

Rgem total snow from the 2 good sites:

Nobody here is arguing that NYC and the coast will likely see 1-2" on the front end, but you're going to changeover there at least a good 4-6 hours before NW areas.

[IsentropicLift]

Ice storm signal on the GGEM as well. Lighter rain will also stick better.

 

[PB GFI]

We're definitely into nowcasting and latest reports from southern DE indicate 2-3" already on the ground there and warnings going up. Doesn't necessarily mean our snowfall predictions should be increased, as they got "extra" snow due to unanticipated increased intensity, which may not happen here, but it certainly shows the potential with this storm, especially since it also might be a little harder to dislodge the cold air in place than is being modeled. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1020 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

 

SOME REPORTS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE INDICATE THAT 2-3 INCHES OF

SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH MORE ON THE WAY, AND THEREFORE WE ARE

UPGRADING SUSSEX /DE/, AND CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES TO A

WARNING. WE ALSO ADDED MORE OF A TRANSITION ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN

AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN ZONES AS ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT OCCURS WITH MORE OF A LAG

IN THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN

PLACE, DESPITE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATER SOME ICING SHOULD OCCUR

EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN RATHER

COLD SURFACES.

 

 

Agree RU . Snowgoose and I talked about this yesterday . We saw this last year .  ( FRZ with temps at 33 /34 ) 

I think a WSW will get def get posted for the interior later .

Some are just starting too deep in the hole and will not come out of it until the damage is done . 

[hudsonvalley21]

Agree RU . Snowgoose and I talked about this yesterday . We saw this last year .  ( FRZ with temps at 33 /34 ) 

I think a WSW will get def get posted for the interior later .

Some are just starting too deep in the hole and will not come out of it until the damage is done . 

Also, the sun did not get a chance to heat up the surfaces today. Up to 12 deg. here now. Dew pt. -1

[allgame830]

I am currently sitting at 19 degrees with a Dewpoint of 10... Will there be any wet bulb once the snow starts before the temps begin to rise above freezing?

[The Plowsman]

1"+ snow on roads in No Brunswick n snowing to beat the band! Lol

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